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RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in confusion?


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RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/14/2006 10:19:38 PM   
KajiraResources


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Orion,

Interesting stats, the source for the 97% plea bargain rate was the Colorado attorney generals office.  I am not sure where thier research came from to establish that it was the national norm but I would be interested if you do find supporting figures what the source is. 

Frankly I would be more likely to take justice into my own hands in the case of someone molesting my child, I would consider it my right and responsibility.   I would still cop the temp insanity plea and roll the dice but what's good for the goose......

Jarl Torvald

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(in reply to OrionTheWolf)
Profile   Post #: 101
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 1:18:48 AM   
Malkinius


Posts: 1584
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Tal Torvald....

quote:

ORIGINAL: KajiraResources
L&M,

Now for the big question: Do you believe that if the rate of conviction and the rate of reported instances has fallen that automatically means the rate of occurance has fallen?

I haven't looked at the numbers for a couple of years, but as I recall the percentage of reporting has gone up but overall numbers are down. The problem when you look at gross numbers is that they don't break out the different kinds of rape. This is your main problem below.


quote:

Clearly the rate of conviction is merely a side effect of the rate of reported instances.  In a society where the rapist will likely be back on the streets in 5-10 years that can be pretty scary to a victim.

The problem with this is that you are dealing with many different reasons and several different types of rape. The man at a party who has sex with a drunk woman is less of a problem for all women than the man who breaks into homes to commit rapes.


quote:

Now lets examine the manner in which victims are handled on the stand:  They generally are villafied and treated as though they are filthy little sluts asking for it, almost criminals themselves for the dress and mannerisms that they adopt just to get the acceptance of a sexually skewed society.  I know not all of them go through this but it is what they are learning from TV and books, and the media today and yes many of them do go through the whole painful mess.

This usually doesn't happen with blitz rapes. It does happen with date rapes and sometimes with statutory rapes. It also doesn't happen as much as it once did do to rules and laws limiting what sexual history the victim has from being entered into evidence.


quote:

So I leave you with why wouldn't the rate of reported instances have fallen?  In addition the rate of conviction on any orignal charges without a plea bargain in america is 3%. that means that 97% of all people charged with rape that get to court are plea bargained to lesser offenses like agravated assalt that is a standard of operations in every legal system in this country.  That said,  you might actually want to "Look into it". 

This is also because the prosecutors these days tend to start out high and expect to drop or reduce some of the charges to get the conviction.


quote:

You will find the same with murder, drug dealing, and many other reduced crime rates, they almost all have a shadow of a higher rate of lesser crimes that they bargain to.

Jarl Torvald

There are many suggested reasons for the drops in various crimes and most of the reasons probably have some validity to them. I doubt there is only one reason, whatever it is.

be well....

Malkinius


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(in reply to KajiraResources)
Profile   Post #: 102
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 3:29:45 AM   
eyesopened


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RedDragonFreehol

Tal Jahna,

Absolutely, and why rape, as defined by western societies, is not rape there.  Rape is, and has always been, a social definition that defines something that is at its heart simply natural forced mating in a mammalian species as morally wrong.  If you remove the social definition, and you look at it from a purely natural standpoint, it has a basis in ensuring that the strongest males mate with as many fertile females as possible, thereby ensuring the birth of many strong offspring, and ultimately, the survival of species.  Rape is something that was first applied as a definition to prevent strong males from taking the females from weaker males, and has been extrapolated, in modern feminist influenced cultures, into a crime against the woman whereby her "right to choose a mate" is violated.  Naturally, this "right" never existed.  The male conquored the female, took her as mate, and then defended his right to mate with her through violent challenge with other males.  Only the strongest male in most mammalian species is allowed to mate with the females of the herd, pride, etc.  This makes sure that the strongest offspring are born, and it ensures that the offspring are more capable of survival.  Within humanity, we have developed a social order that is of the weak, by the weak, and ultimately breeds weaker and weaker human animals, more reliant on technology for survival.  Animals that were they subject suddenly to natural law would be incapable of survival.

Be well,





please excuse me for the need to comment but "rape" in the animal kingdom would occur when the female is not receptive to breeding.  A bull does not attempt to mate with a cow when she is not in estrus at that time when she welcomes and wants the copulation to take place.  The state of estrus is the "permission" a female mammal implies to the male.  A weasel will "rape" infant weasels in the nest, without estrus but only when the mother is not there to protect her infants.  Most humans would not wish to be equated with weasels.


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Profile   Post #: 103
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 5:24:42 AM   
fyreredsub


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Greetings Jarl,

Thank you 

May she wish you well


quote:

ORIGINAL: KajiraResources

Fyre,

You are correct in that, I hadn't read your post before posting my own but you are right on track with this one.

Jarl


_____________________________

"Accordingly, men must then either fulfill their nature, or deny it, and in denying their nature, deny us ours, for ours is the complement to theirs. " Renegades

(in reply to KajiraResources)
Profile   Post #: 104
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 6:43:15 AM   
Lordandmaster


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The "plea bargain argument" is not an argument; at best, it's a reflection of a misunderstanding of crime statistics.  The number of reported rapes is not affected by plea bargains.  I already told you that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: KajiraResources

You also completely overlooked the plea bargain arguement.

(in reply to KajiraResources)
Profile   Post #: 105
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 7:45:44 AM   
OrionTheWolf


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One of the things I am looking at is the amount of "clearances" that occur in the data. Here is an explanation of clearance from the Dept of Justice:

"
In the UCR Program, law enforcement agencies may clear an offense by the arrest of at least one person or by exceptional means. An exceptional clearance is reported when some element beyond the control of law enforcement precludes the agency from making an arrest that otherwise would be accomplished; for example, the victim refuses to cooperate with the prosecution. (Section III provides more information concerning clearances.)
Nationwide in 2004, law enforcement agencies cleared, either by arrest or by exceptional means, 41.8 percent of reported forcible rapes. Among the Nation’s cities, the overall clearance rate for forcible rape was 40.1 percent. Cities with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants had the highest clearance rate (43.8 percent), and those with populations of 100,000 to 249,999 had the lowest rate (38.1 percent). County law enforcement agencies cleared 46.8 percent of the forcible rapes that occurred in metropolitan counties and 45.8 percent of those that took place in nonmetropolitan counties. "

I am also trying to find out if the definition of rape as is being used in the reports has changed during the periods they are giving statistics. The reason for this is that I find numbers that call it "forcible rape" but I want to know if what defines that has changed during this period. Here is one site that gives some data  http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/offenses_reported/violent_crime/forcible_rape.html

It appears that maybe the number of cases increase, because the population does but the percentages go down based on the ratio per capita.


Orion

< Message edited by OrionTheWolf -- 12/15/2006 7:47:58 AM >

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 106
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 8:01:25 AM   
OrionTheWolf


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Found some more stats that actually show a dramatic increase since 1960. In 1960 it appears the rape ratio was approx 10 per 100,000 people, in 1992 or 1993 it appears it was at an all time high of approx 43 per 100,000 people, and in 1998 34.4. These stats appear to show a decline in the last 10 years, which seems to be supported in several different reports but there has been a dramatic increase since 1960.

Since there were no stats I could find that appear earlier than 1960, it is diificult to say whether the rate has risen much since before then. It seems to me that over all rape is up and that over a period of time it may have peaks and valleys but shows an increase over the 38 year span these statistics were gathered.

Anytime I look at statistics I always think of Mark Twains quote though "There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics." So take the stats as you may, my belief is that there is a significant rise and it is my belief that many things such as change in society, increased anxiety in people, lowering of ethics and principles, poor raising of children, and general acceptance of some compulsive disorders as an illness and not criminal, as contributing factors to this. I am going to continue to do my own research and I suggest that any who seriously see this as a problem, do so as well.

LAM, could you start providing some of your sources for your statements? I have seen you ask others for their proof but have as yet seen you post a source for your claims. This would help everyone that is concerned with this issue to understand it better.


Orion

(in reply to OrionTheWolf)
Profile   Post #: 107
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 9:49:33 AM   
fyreredsub


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Greetings,

a 'rape' may be reported as aggrevated battery or (some similiar charge) depending on the evidence that the DA's office has to charge.....

these bargains are sometimes done before the charges even actually occur when the DA and an atty for the perpetrator get together and check  evidence that they have vs evidence that is needed for conviction...yet there may be a witness....so the deal is struck for such and such charge even tho the crime that was committed was in reality something else

This girl is a victims advocate she works with these types or crimes on a regular basis...sometimes her role is to decipher the system to the victim and other days it is to hold their hand and offer counseling...

whatever is needed to get them through the trauma

May she wish you well


_____________________________

"Accordingly, men must then either fulfill their nature, or deny it, and in denying their nature, deny us ours, for ours is the complement to theirs. " Renegades

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 108
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 9:54:26 AM   
OrionTheWolf


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fyre,

Could you please provide a source for the first statement. This is something I would like to confirm. I am also looking for what is an actual report, is it just a police report or an official filing of charges. I did find in a couple of the sources I have already published that 2 to 3 percent are dismissed because they are determined to be unfounded but that is the same stat for most other violent crimes. It looks like the current clearance rate is about 43%, which means 57% of all reported rapes do not end ina conviction, plea bargain or something else that clears it.

Orion





quote:

ORIGINAL: fyreredsub

Greetings,

a 'rape' may be reported as aggrevated battery or (some similiar charge) depending on the evidence that the DA's office has to charge.....

these bargains are sometimes done before the charges even actually occur when the DA and an atty for the perpetrator get together and check  evidence that they have vs evidence that is needed for conviction...yet there may be a witness....so the deal is struck for such and such charge even tho the crime that was committed was in reality something else

This girl is a victims advocate she works with these types or crimes on a regular basis...sometimes her role is to decipher the system to the victim and other days it is to hold their hand and offer counseling...

whatever is needed to get them through the trauma

May she wish you well


(in reply to fyreredsub)
Profile   Post #: 109
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 10:08:18 AM   
fyreredsub


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Greetings Master Orion,

It can not be done without breaking a clients confidentiality.

Also,she is extremely familiar with the  processes and procedures based on what evidence is on hand as opposed to what is needed to convict (these can be found in GA SS/law enforcement codes) ((ecspecially if it is an election year)).

A suspect can sit in jail for up to 72 hours before being 'charged with a crime' so in all actuality he may have raped someone but they may not have the evidence to convict for the crime but in examining the evidence they may find they can convict on a battery charge so then ...he gets  booked and arraigned and bonds out and a rape goes unreported in the cjcc stats and then a plea bargain may be struck also depending on how long he sat in jail before bond/court date with regard to being considered as time served/punishment as well the perp already getting a  break on the charge because of the evidence.

May she wish you well


< Message edited by fyreredsub -- 12/15/2006 10:32:03 AM >


_____________________________

"Accordingly, men must then either fulfill their nature, or deny it, and in denying their nature, deny us ours, for ours is the complement to theirs. " Renegades

(in reply to OrionTheWolf)
Profile   Post #: 110
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 10:55:51 AM   
OrionTheWolf


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fyre,

I did not want specifics if it was something to do with a particular case, you made it sound like a fact that could be confirmed and I was looking for confirmation.

You may very well be familiar with the process, but I am looking for sources that report just the facts and have them listed in a report or something. This is not to say that you are not accurate, just that I would like sources other than peoples personal observations.


quote:

ORIGINAL: fyreredsub

Greetings Master Orion,

It can not be done without breaking a clients confidentiality.

Also,she is extremely familiar with the  processes and procedures based on what evidence is on hand as opposed to what is needed to convict (these can be found in GA SS/law enforcement codes) ((ecspecially if it is an election year)).

A suspect can sit in jail for up to 72 hours before being 'charged with a crime' so in all actuality he may have raped someone but they may not have the evidence to convict for the crime but in examining the evidence they may find they can convict on a battery charge so then ...he gets  booked and arraigned and bonds out and a rape goes unreported in the cjcc stats and then a plea bargain may be struck also depending on how long he sat in jail before bond/court date with regard to being considered as time served/punishment as well the perp already getting a  break on the charge because of the evidence.

May she wish you well


(in reply to fyreredsub)
Profile   Post #: 111
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 11:19:46 AM   
fyreredsub


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Greetings Master Orion,

A girl will look into the cjcc info

May she wish you well

_____________________________

"Accordingly, men must then either fulfill their nature, or deny it, and in denying their nature, deny us ours, for ours is the complement to theirs. " Renegades

(in reply to OrionTheWolf)
Profile   Post #: 112
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 2:36:50 PM   
Lordandmaster


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You're gettin' there, but you need to plot your rape figures against violent crime in general.  ALL crime has increased since 1960, and ALL crime has decreased since 1990.  Violent crime has generally followed the same pattern.  And you might want to ask what else has followed the same pattern...like...DRUG ABUSE...to name just an obvious example.

Also, it's misleading to say that "there has been a dramatic increase since 1960" because the peak occurred nearly 15 years ago.  (So that would be like saying there's been a dramatic increase in the use of steam engines since 1700.)  The dramatic increase was in the period 1960-1990, and since then there has been a no less dramatic decrease, considering the length of the two time intervals.

quote:

ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf

Found some more stats that actually show a dramatic increase since 1960. In 1960 it appears the rape ratio was approx 10 per 100,000 people, in 1992 or 1993 it appears it was at an all time high of approx 43 per 100,000 people, and in 1998 34.4. These stats appear to show a decline in the last 10 years, which seems to be supported in several different reports but there has been a dramatic increase since 1960.

(in reply to OrionTheWolf)
Profile   Post #: 113
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 2:45:17 PM   
Lordandmaster


Posts: 10836
Joined: 6/22/2004
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Oh, I just realized that I never responded to this.  Actually, I haven't made too many positive statements in this thread; I've merely been responding to the astonishing statements that other people have made.

Anyway, unfortunately, I can't just cite links here to relevant publications, because most of them are not public-access, but this is a very good bibliography:

http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/cgi/CITATIONS/search?study=3140&method=study&path=ICPSR
quote:

ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf

LAM, could you start providing some of your sources for your statements? I have seen you ask others for their proof but have as yet seen you post a source for your claims. This would help everyone that is concerned with this issue to understand it better.


< Message edited by Lordandmaster -- 12/15/2006 2:47:56 PM >

(in reply to OrionTheWolf)
Profile   Post #: 114
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 4:19:12 PM   
OrionTheWolf


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Greetings LAM,

First off, is LAM how you wish to be addressed because I am sure not going to use your full handle <chuckles>.

I am also looking at the stats for violent crimes now. It seems that all violent crimes have increased/decreased with similar rates. Yes I have thought of drug use as a possible correlation, since it effects violent crime stats in general. I also read briefly over a study of the family going to dual parent incomes and relation to crime in general but I am I have seen so many that had alterior motives for their report I just saved it to read later.

How is it misleading to say there has been a dramatic increase since 1960? It appears to me that it is dramatic, though yes there has been a decline in the last decade. If you take the most current stat I could find which is from 1998 34.4% and compare to 1960 which is 10%, then it seems dramatic to me. What percentage increase or decrease would you consider dramatic?

To everyone else and to LAM, do you think that serial rape should be excluded, since it seems to be a severe mental condition and I do not see any amount of principles that can fix compulsive disorders as extreme as those? I have found report that break down the different types of rates but still no definition of what constitutes those.


Orion





quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

You're gettin' there, but you need to plot your rape figures against violent crime in general.  ALL crime has increased since 1960, and ALL crime has decreased since 1990.  Violent crime has generally followed the same pattern.  And you might want to ask what else has followed the same pattern...like...DRUG ABUSE...to name just an obvious example.

Also, it's misleading to say that "there has been a dramatic increase since 1960" because the peak occurred nearly 15 years ago.  (So that would be like saying there's been a dramatic increase in the use of steam engines since 1700.)  The dramatic increase was in the period 1960-1990, and since then there has been a no less dramatic decrease, considering the length of the two time intervals.

quote:

ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf

Found some more stats that actually show a dramatic increase since 1960. In 1960 it appears the rape ratio was approx 10 per 100,000 people, in 1992 or 1993 it appears it was at an all time high of approx 43 per 100,000 people, and in 1998 34.4. These stats appear to show a decline in the last 10 years, which seems to be supported in several different reports but there has been a dramatic increase since 1960.


(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 115
RE: Is the rapist and pedophile a result of a world in ... - 12/15/2006 8:10:08 PM   
Lordandmaster


Posts: 10836
Joined: 6/22/2004
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1.  Lam is fine.  I think everyone on Collarme calls me Lam.

2.  Why it's misleading to say that there's been a dramatic increase since 1960: because the increase phase is long over; we're in a decrease phase now, and have been for about 15 years already.  You could say that the NUMBER (per 100,000 people, or whatever) of reported incidents is greater than it was in 1960, but if the graph isn't a straight line, it's misleading to say that the increase goes back to 1960.  That makes people think it's been increasing constantly every year.  (Also, it's 34.4 per 100,000 people, not 34.4%.)

3.  I personally wouldn't exclude serial rapes, because it's impossible to know, just on the basis of reported rapes, how many are to be attributed to serial rapists and how many are isolated cases.  Besides, it's hard to define serial rape in a statistically meaningful way.  Sure, it's obvious when a psychiatrist can (or claims to be able to) determine that someone convicted of multiple rapes is mentally ill, psychotic, or whatever; it's easy to designate that person's crimes as serial rapes.  But what about someone who goes in and out of prison all his life, and each time he's out, it doesn't take long before he commits another rape?  Is that person a serial rapist?  It's hard to say.  I mean, he's not a nice person, obviously, and he doesn't belong on the streets, but determining whether he's a "serial rapist" or not seems like an artificial exercise.

quote:

ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf

First off, is LAM how you wish to be addressed because I am sure not going to use your full handle <chuckles>.

I am also looking at the stats for violent crimes now. It seems that all violent crimes have increased/decreased with similar rates. Yes I have thought of drug use as a possible correlation, since it effects violent crime stats in general. I also read briefly over a study of the family going to dual parent incomes and relation to crime in general but I am I have seen so many that had alterior motives for their report I just saved it to read later.

How is it misleading to say there has been a dramatic increase since 1960? It appears to me that it is dramatic, though yes there has been a decline in the last decade. If you take the most current stat I could find which is from 1998 34.4% and compare to 1960 which is 10%, then it seems dramatic to me. What percentage increase or decrease would you consider dramatic?

To everyone else and to LAM, do you think that serial rape should be excluded, since it seems to be a severe mental condition and I do not see any amount of principles that can fix compulsive disorders as extreme as those? I have found report that break down the different types of rates but still no definition of what constitutes those.

(in reply to OrionTheWolf)
Profile   Post #: 116
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