cjan -> RE: "FDIC warns US bank deposit insurance fund could tank" (3/6/2009 5:23:50 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda quote:
ORIGINAL: Vendaval The FDIC chief said in the letter that the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions raised the prospects of "a large number" of bank failures through 2010." I've got worse news than that, Ven. He may be understating the problem, drastically understating it. There are a growing number of economists who maintain that the banking system is not just in deep trouble, but that it's already insolvent - that the banks are essentially bankrupt. That they simply do not have the money to meet the legal definition of solvency, which in simplest terms requires that banks have on hand shareholder capital equivalent to 10% of the obligations on their books. With the number of foreclosures still rising, and rising at faster and faster rates, there is almost zero chance that the banks will be able to meet that requirement this year. We're talking trillions of dollars here. Thus, massive and widespread bank failures are probably inevitable. The only solution is to at least partly nationalize the banking system, even if only for a limited time period. Mind you, I'm not saying I advocate that; I'm just saying that's probably going to be the only realistic option. There's no other way to fix this, because the federal government is the only entity in the world that has the kind of money needed to keep the banks solvent. Faced with a choice between nationalizing the banks and letting the banking system fail, they won't have any choice but to nationalize the banks. The math is simple. The Obama administration knows this, but they're not telling us that. Yet. I believe they're waiting until the walls start to fall, at which time people will be so terrified they'll jump at any solution. Right now, people aren't scared enough yet, so nationalizing the banks would serve only to hasten the economic decline, and Obama would be blamed for causing the collapse. If they wait until it's inevitable, they can just step out front and say, "hey, we tried everything, but now we have no choice." And people will be more inclined to give them a pass. I think we're looking at a very ugly, and a very scary, year or two here.This latest message from Sheila Bair is just one more subtle step in the process of preparing us for the nationalization of the banking system. I agree with your analysis, Panda.There is no alternative to temporary nationalization of the banks and fundamental reform of the financial system. However, there is currently too much resistance to doing so . This resistance will wither as the situation worsens .
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