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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 11:53:50 AM

MzMia

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Well, I am going to skip around what everyone believes in

{because we all have a variety of beliefs including santa claus, easter bunny, etc.}
and come back to the facts.

The stock market is dropping {this is a fact}...... I realize everyone does not care, which is their right,
for those that DO care, when do you think it will it be corrected/or stabilized?

< Message edited by MzMia -- 6/22/2009 12:00:54 PM >

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 11:57:16 AM

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....arguably the stock market dropping is the correction.

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 11:59:26 AM

MzMia

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quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

....arguably the stock market dropping is the correction.

Bingo, I totally agree,{the question is/was in my OP 20 posts ago}
how low will it go, before it is corrected?

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Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
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What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 12:03:03 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

....arguably the stock market dropping is the correction.

Bingo, I totally agree,{the question is/was in my OP 20 posts ago}
how low will it go, before it is corrected?

...well, it's not just an economic question. It's political, even ideological. One could even argue that it's a matter of faith for some. Consequently, i doubt anyone can really answer your question. Oh, some may make good guesses, even informed ones......but no-one really knows. Chances are, it wont go low enough and a boom/bust cycle will be exacerbated.

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 12:06:25 PM

MzMia

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Thankyou for a thoughtful answer Phil,

I would hope that as it continues to drop and be "corrected" that we are near the real bottom.

Surely, a real correction could not be around 4000/5000?

< Message edited by MzMia -- 6/22/2009 12:07:05 PM >

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain

What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to philosophy)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 12:42:42 PM

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I don't think there is a guarantee of what that will be. As I was trying, apparently badly, to explain with my car analogy, something, whatever it is, is only worth what you can get someone to pay for it.

If you can get someone to pay $xx amount for GE stock, then that is what it is worth.

If you can get someone to pay $2,000.00 for an ounce of gold, then that is what it is worth..........at that moment.

There are no guarantees what any of that will be worth next year, in 5 years, or 10 years.

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My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 12:43:48 PM

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LAT,

Things are not "mad max". You don't like Bob Chapman.   Why?    More the point- do you know who he is? Have your read one of his newsletters?

Keep in mind, I canceled TV a year ago.   I do not watch TV.

Is it possible that- you have a big ego?   (think on it over-night) (same question to myself and everyone on the board)

Who is the best expert?

If you clash with his personality, I understand. He can have that effect on people. He did on my brother.

But is there a point of argument as to on specifics as to why he is a fox?

Because - if this is truly the case, then I would hope you would protect me.

Not everyone gets along with everyone else. Understandable. That is life- I understand this. I clash with some people as well.

Since you are educated- you could be seeing something- that I dont see, so I am asking you.

The world is full of alot of clowns and particularly on TV.
It would be easy to write Chapman off as part of the clowns.

I am becoming concerned. People are- all over- they are in a foul mood. We haven't even gotten "there" yet.
So by the time we do get there- no one rational will be left- as mass hysteria IS contagious.

We both been on CM for too long to NOT have constructive banter.

To the group- really- the "doom" is negative energy, that in itself feeds on itself.
People need a break from that.   besides being panic- doesn't render any remedy.

-----

Anyone??

< Message edited by pahunkboy -- 6/22/2009 12:45:15 PM >

(in reply to MzMia)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 12:52:25 PM

MzMia

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Actually LaT, I agree with you and even a bit with pahunky.

The problem is for those {and there are many} who are dependent on this money NOW to live on.

The millions whose lives and dreams are being changed RIGHT NOW/and REALLY.

The thousands who can not retire, are retired and must go back to work, and on and on. Those who planned to use the money to pay for their children's college education right NOW, there are thousands of stories floating around.
Many people have lost almost half of their life's savings and they do not have 10-20 years to "hope" they get it back.

Their are certainly many that won't even live long enought to "make it back". {my Uncle is 74}
You might not be affected, but there are many that are affected very much, and right now, and their situation is real.

< Message edited by MzMia -- 6/22/2009 12:56:55 PM >

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain

What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:04:36 PM

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PA, I do not know this person personally therefor have no basis to like or dislike him as a person. What I do dislike is what he has created and stands for. No different than the evangelical preachers. Working people up into a frenzy based upon vague facts and statements, usually taken out of context, building them into more than they are, all to make themselves look more important and omnipotent than they are.

I guarantee you that this man is profitting in some way from his fame. By stirring people up and getting people like yourself to believe in him, keeps you "preaching his word" which increases his fame and whatever profit he is gaining.

It's disgusting to profit by building people's fear. It is what evangelical preachers do and it is what people like your messiah is doing.

Certainly yes, we are living through trying times. But it will prove to be cyclical, of this I am certain. Regardless of how it all plays out, to buy into the fear that people like Chapman, and even our major media, is selling is foolishness.

And yes, I have read his stuff. Almost every time you mention him so fervently. Every time I hope to see something worthy of taking seriously and each time I close the window in disgust.

< Message edited by LaTigresse -- 6/22/2009 1:06:48 PM >

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My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

(in reply to pahunkboy)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:11:38 PM

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MzMia, and for those people I feel bad. It is unfortunate that they were gambling (because that is what the stock market really is) with money they were going to need so quickly. My lead pressman is the perfect example of how our investment guy gave good advise. He is pushing 60, getting closer to retirement. Several years ago his retirement investments were taken out of stocks and moved into low interest, but much safer areas. He has lost nothing. Why, because of the very reason you bring up.

The longer you have to invest, the more you can invest in riskier ventures. The shorter your time frame, the more conservative you need to be.

_____________________________

My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

(in reply to MzMia)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:17:21 PM

MzMia

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quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

MzMia, and for those people I feel bad. It is unfortunate that they were gambling (because that is what the stock market really is) with money they were going to need so quickly. My lead pressman is the perfect example of how our investment guy gave good advise. He is pushing 60, getting closer to retirement. Several years ago his retirement investments were taken out of stocks and moved into low interest, but much safer areas. He has lost nothing. Why, because of the very reason you bring up.

The longer you have to invest, the more you can invest in riskier ventures. The shorter your time frame, the more conservative you need to be.

I agree with this statement.
My Uncle is a retired CPA, it just hurt my heart to hear he lost thousands of dollars.
He carefully created his own portfolio, and he lives off this money.
He just NEVER thought it would happen, especially so quickly.
I hope he lives long enough to see the market go sky high.
Many were living a bit too much on the edge, and now they are sadly paying the price.

p.s.-he ain't that bad off, he just spent 2 weeks in Europe.
But there are many that don't have the "cushion" that he has.
The idea of many having to delay retirement, and work an extra 5-10 years is sobering.

< Message edited by MzMia -- 6/22/2009 1:21:51 PM >

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain

What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to LaTigresse)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:23:53 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

The stock market is dropping {this is a fact}...... I realize everyone does not care, which is their right,
for those that DO care, when do you think it will it be corrected/or stabilized?

Where exactly are you seeing it dropping?

Seems to have stabilized with an upward trend over the last few months.

DJI: Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average

June 19th close was 8539.

May 19th close was 8474.

April 17th close was 8131.

March 20th close was 7278.

February 20th close was 7365.

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:32:28 PM

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LaT makes an excellent point....in that the stock market is high risk. Always has been, always will. The problem is that there are those who have sold the idea of the stock market to a lot of people. This is why earlier i characterised it as ideological. Part of the Right's agenda, all over the world, for the last few decades has been the idea that the more of us who invest in the stock market the richer we will all be. It's only partially true. Some of the time we may make more money........but some of the time we lose it all. Thing is, the bigger the corporation, the easier is it to cushion yourself against the slumps. Conversely, individuals have next to no protection...but those individuals do create a lot of cash flow for those corporations to exploit.
We focus too much on money. Too much on pursuing the idea that we want, nay need, more of it. LaT also spoke of value......value isn't just what someone will pay for something, it isn't always reckoned in dollars and cents.
A few weeks ago i watched out our back window while a wolf stood on a small rise and watched the world wake up......cost: nothing, value: priceless.

(in reply to MzMia)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:35:27 PM

MzMia

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swoons at Philosophy.
Many are re-learning that listen Phil, many of the best things in life are free.

....but I do need to be able to pay my bills when I retire.

Late congratulations on getting married, your Lady got one of the good ones.

< Message edited by MzMia -- 6/22/2009 1:36:57 PM >

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain

What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to philosophy)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:41:22 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

swoons at Philosophy.
Many are re-learning that listen Phil, many of the best things in life are free.

....but I do need to be able to pay my bills when I retire.

Late congratulations on getting married, your Lady got one of the good ones.

...awww, thanks.

...and you're also bang on about needing to pay bills. However, we buy too heavily into the consumer society as a rule. Sure, we need to buy (or grow) food, we need to pay the water company, the electricity bill etc.....however we don't need a new phone every year, a new computer every other year or a new media player every time they change the format. A safe, low interest, deposit account is a good thing. You ought to be able to pay your bills.....you just wont necessarily be able to afford that ride on Virgin Spaceways

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 1:48:16 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia
I really think before this is over, we will certainly see numbers around 7000.
I have even heard 6500 is not unrealistic, but I am sticking with my 7000 prediction.

As someone "waiting" to open up a little mutual fund/and get in low, I am waiting to see how low can IT go?

What do you think about the current "correction"?

6500? It's already hit 6500, back in March, and gone back up again. Will it get there again? Damned if i know. I don't think it's got that much space left under it, but it might. Hope not, but if it does, we might as well find out now rather than next spring.

What do I think about this correction? It was inevitable. There was no substantive reason at all for stocks to rocket up as high as they did the last few months. The fundamentals of the economy just don't support a Dow near 9,000, where it was 2 weeks ago. Projections of future earnings simply don't justify the stock prices we've seen the last couple of months. You knew there was a correction coming; there had to be. I've seen predictions of everywhere from a 7% pullback to 20%. We've already retreated around 7% as of today, I believe, and it's nowhere near over yet. I would be surprised to see anything less than a 10 or even 12 % drop before it starts back up again. Much deeper than that would be ominous news, but it wouldn't surprise me terribly if it dropped 20% before it turns around.

It's been mostly traders who've been driving this rally the last few months, not investors, and they're going to take ther profits now and wait for some good news before they start buying again. I sold almost everything a week and a half ago, and I'm just going to watch and see where it settles before I start buying back in. I think traders and investors alike are starting to catch on that this is going to be a much slower recovery than we're used to seeing, and they might be cautious in the next couple of months as the reality starts to set in. There'll be more buying opportunities soon, but right now it's a pretty damned good time to be mostly in cash.

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 2:34:52 PM

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LAT,

thank you for answering my post.

I 100% agree that there are people fueling the flames and making a profit. If you know what a pump and dump is, well - I fell for it. Not too long ago.

Chapmans writings are certainly dramatic, what I like about him is that he gets to the bottom line.     He does earn money off his newsletter.

He is no Jim Kramer.

His newsletters are highly pirated- the embassies around the world read them- as does the white house.

He IS a good writer-

He made $40 off of me. I went in with 3 guys- we bought a 1 year sub together.

He knows I did this and is ok with it.

IMO he stands taller then the others-

...one thing for sure is that there are MANY foxes around.

Thank you for having the class, per your reply to my post in a dignified manner. :-)

Roger

(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)

RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 3:01:29 PM

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My personal opinion about the economy? I think we are at the beginning of our own 'lost decade', but since we're bigger & badder than Japan (where they're in the second decade of their 'lost decade') ours will be longer . . . . . .

My go-to guru on all things economic is Paul Krugman:

http://www.pkarchive.org/

I almost never buy into apocalyptic doomsday stuff . . . . . Nor do I buy into the notion that anything more than bare-bones consumption is some kind of right, especially the competitive hyper-consumption that has marked American existence for the last few decades . .. . .

ETA: I also don't do 'metallurgical fetishism' . . . . . lol

< Message edited by DemonKia -- 6/22/2009 3:02:17 PM >

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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 3:14:33 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DemonKia

I almost never buy into apocalyptic doomsday stuff . . . . . Nor do I buy into the notion that anything more than bare-bones consumption is some kind of right, especially the competitive hyper-consumption that has marked American existence for the last few decades . .. . .

ETA: I also don't do 'metallurgical fetishism' . . . . . lol

Wait a minute - I thought you did like chains? Did i misread your profile?

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Panda, panda, burning bright
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What immortal hand or eye
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RE: Dow is dropping faster than a hot potato - 6/22/2009 3:20:23 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DemonKia

My personal opinion about the economy? I think we are at the beginning of our own 'lost decade', but since we're bigger & badder than Japan (where they're in the second decade of their 'lost decade') ours will be longer . . .

But on a serious note - yeah, I don't see any way to avoid that. I suspect our "lost decade" may not be as deep or as dismal as theirs, but I do expect that ours will last long enough that I may very well not see the end of it in my lifetime. I just don't see the ingredients in place for the domestic consumer spending it would take to fuel a really dynamic recovery. The new "normal" is going to look and feel a lot differently than what we came to consider normal over the last 15 to 20 years.

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Panda, panda, burning bright
In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
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