RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (Full Version)

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MzMia -> RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (1/10/2010 8:01:42 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: sappatoti

Locally, the county I live currently states its "official" unemployment rate at 12.7%. That's based upon the usual statistics of those applying for or maintaining their unemployment assistance. Unofficially, local officials have thrown about the estimate of 20% unemployed, underemployed, and those who have given up looking or have used up all of their assistance and have fallen off the official statistics.

The employment forecast for my county isn't good. The "official" unemployment figure could rise to as much as 16% over the next two years before it starts leveling off.

Living in a rural setting can be quite bucolic at times. Unfortunately, it can also be a pain in the ass during times like this.


Nationwide, the numbers are probably close to 20%.
At 25% the numbers will match the great Depression.
If we don't find or "create" or "encourage" hundreds of thousands of jobs,
in the next year, we will be on the precipice of the 21st "Great Depression".




TheHeretic -> RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (1/10/2010 8:43:08 PM)

It isn't the unemployment numbers that define a depression, Mia, it's a period of time of stagnant/negative economic growth.  Besides, haven't you heard?  The government managed to spend enough money that economy is growing again.  The recession is over!  President Obama saved us all!  Just wait until the benefits and extensions run out, and those unemployment numbers will start dropping too!

More seriously, another 8 points of unemployment would be completely catastrophic.




MzMia -> RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (1/10/2010 9:00:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

It isn't the unemployment numbers that define a depression, Mia, it's a period of time of stagnant/negative economic growth.  Besides, haven't you heard?  The government managed to spend enough money that economy is growing again.  The recession is over!  President Obama saved us all!  Just wait until the benefits and extensions run out, and those unemployment numbers will start dropping too!

More seriously, another 8 points of unemployment would be completely catastrophic.


Great point Rich!
By my meager calculations {I am neither an economist or anything remotely similar},

we have been on the downward spiral since the Fall of 2007.
We are going on 3 years this summer, Rich.
How long and how low do we need to go Rich?
Or rather, how low can you go?

 [;)]




Silence8 -> RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (1/10/2010 10:21:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: LadyEllen

As a business, if no one (or not enough people) want or can afford your service or product, you are doomed to fail. There is so much that creative marketing can do, but ultimately it cannot make up for a service or product that is too expensive or not as good as another.

As a worker the same things apply. If your salary need is too expensive or your work not as good as that of another you are not going to get the job.

Where one competes for business or a job against roughly equal competitors on the cost/benefit analysis in a small pool of competitors, supply and demand means that even the poorest competitor will enjoy some success at gaining business or employment; the availability of resource in the market will oblige some to buy from the poorest competitor or employ him.

Where one competes in a world wide market of competitors however, who will take a smaller salary or charge a lower price and provide more work or a product or service of acceptable quality, the same supply and demand influences mean that the poorest competitors may not receive any business or gain any employment, since the availability of resource in the market is so large that all buyers can buy from the more competitive and need not pay more or accept less simply in order to meet their need.

In short, unless we are prepared to accept one bowl of rice for an 18 hour shift, 7 days a week, give up our central heating, cars and the remainder of our western lifestyle, we must accept high unemployment. Global trade is here to stay, unfortunately for most; our personal choices amount to the above dismal prospect, finding something that simply cannot be outsourced (difficult) or catch a ride on the race to the bottom, dismissing any concern or interest for the plight of those whom you must thereby exploit.

This is the fulfilment of the free market that was rolled back slightly over the 20th century by the march of socialist and liberal ideas that held that the riches ought to be shared more fairly and the law ought to act to improve the lives of the poor and exploited by limiting their exploitation. It is no good now to complain that the game is rigged, when it is a game which most of us were winning until quite recently and held up as the ideal framework for any economy, and which some to this day - though they too must ultimately fall victim, stubbornly protest to be such.

E


I agreed with most of this until the last paragraph, which seems somewhat wrong and definitely not clear. Liberal in what way? You were joking maybe? I sometimes can't pick up sarcasm or irony online.

Still, relating the job situation to some desire to ameliorate poverty conflicts highly with most available facts.

The logic of the comparison shows the true state of flux and insecurity ordinary people have experienced for centuries, as heavily destructive forms of growth rely on the sheer volume of space and unaccountability to stay ensured systematically against their own effects.

There are no socialist ideas, at least in the sense that you probably mean. True socialism exists, though, in many elements of the current global community; the social group emphasized is represented economically as the top half of 1%. Most government policy is designed to benefit this group.




LadyEllen -> RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (1/11/2010 5:41:13 AM)

My final paragraph argues that our current state is the result of opening ourselves up to much cheaper competition as is necessary under the model we have espoused for so long and from which we have all done rather well to date. I am saying that the "free market" has come back to bite us in the ass because the truth is we have managed, through social progress of various sorts, to make ourselves uncompetitive with those who will work all day all week for very little.

Such innovations as paid holiday, health care, sick pay, days off each week and limits to working hours and the notion of lunch breaks et al, not to mention sex equality in the workplace, minimum and maximum working ages and a living wage have all rolled back the "free market" model as it should rightfully function - that is by allowing boss and workers to negotiate solely from their respective positions any agreement they wish, which absent such social progress and innovations means that the workers get a raw deal indeed in most instances.

If we want full or near full employment then we must now dispense with these niceties in order to compete with workers who do not enjoy them.

E




Gurlugon -> RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (1/11/2010 10:46:01 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne

they need that to usher in their new agenda.

I always find the word "create" + "jobs" problematic.



With unemployment as high as it is, many jobs will have to "created" or "encouraged".
Do you have any "idea's"?
We have some smart cookies around here.

I am willing to email the White House, with any great suggestions.
[;)]
 


Emailing the whitehouse is about as productive as sticking your thumb up your butt.

Some of the smartest minds in the world enter that building; there is already a solution to our economic problems.

But you have to remember who is in control.

That would be the federal reserve (which, if you don't know, is the privately owned bank that prints all of the shiney new dollars).

Do you really think the rich, powerful folks that have our government in their pocket want us to get smart, have money and potentially rise above? Yeah, no I'm not seeing it.

Ever since the emplacement of a second privately owned monetary system, things have gotten progressively more in more out of hand politically. Once a vote used to matter. Now, it's kind of pathetic to watch all of these people who still put stock in our system pretend to make a difference by voting for a figurehead.

Sorry to rant; I've had a bad morning.




MzMia -> RE: The Terrible Teens? Unemployment to remain high for MOST of the decade? (1/11/2010 6:32:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: LadyEllen

My final paragraph argues that our current state is the result of opening ourselves up to much cheaper competition as is necessary under the model we have espoused for so long and from which we have all done rather well to date. I am saying that the "free market" has come back to bite us in the ass because the truth is we have managed, through social progress of various sorts, to make ourselves uncompetitive with those who will work all day all week for very little.

Such innovations as paid holiday, health care, sick pay, days off each week and limits to working hours and the notion of lunch breaks et al, not to mention sex equality in the workplace, minimum and maximum working ages and a living wage have all rolled back the "free market" model as it should rightfully function - that is by allowing boss and workers to negotiate solely from their respective positions any agreement they wish, which absent such social progress and innovations means that the workers get a raw deal indeed in most instances.

If we want full or near full employment then we must now dispense with these niceties in order to compete with workers who do not enjoy them.

E


LadyEllen I have been saying this and similar things for years.
We are on the cusp of a lot of the chickens coming home to roost.
Personally, I think many people rather live in "denial" than accept many
truths that are and have always been in their face.
Some great questions are, "How long can the denial last, and how bad will things get, and

then what shall we do?"
[sm=idea.gif]




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