Propping up the Poll numbers (Full Version)

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TheHeretic -> Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 8:42:52 AM)

I saw this article a couple days ago, and debated on whether to post something with it.  "What the hell" is the answer I came up with.  There is meat on the bone for political junkies to gnaw on, and something of interest for those who believe, as I do, that it is critical to end the current one-party rule in Washington the November.

Polls Apart - The Weekly Standard

If you're looking for data that suggest a larger wave in November than you might otherwise expect, here it is. Obama's national job approval numbers are low, but not yet seen as catastrophic. Yet in a great many districts—and particularly swing districts—they may actually be closer to President Bush's 2006 number than otherwise appears. Bush still had 40 percent approval in November 2006.
 
 



Musicmystery -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 8:50:30 AM)

In the end, this will be about the economy. Americans can't remember what happened before that latest news "crisis."

Where's the talk about petroleum prices, or Iraq/Afghanistan, or a host of other issues people screamed about?

The election will be about the economy. If it's demonstrably better, as seen from Main Street, people will be happy. If not, whatever the numbers, they'll be angry.

Until that essential dynamic changes, we'll continue to swing from party to party, angrily throwing one out and reinstating the other for another round of the same, only to reverse it again in future elections.

As an electorate, we aren't very smart.



Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 8:57:26 AM)


Good article, Rich.

On several levels this is theatre so bizarre that its almost pointless to speak the obvious, such as the election of Scott Brown to the people's seat in uber-Liberal Massachusetts...


[sm=popcorn.gif]





Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 8:58:55 AM)


That seems to be the Obama gambit in a nutshell.

We shall see.

[sm=popcorn.gif]

quote:

As an electorate, we aren't very smart.



Musicmystery -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:02:03 AM)

Seen any death panels lately?

Let's run a poll, see who believes it.



Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:04:38 AM)


Death panels. Hmm... Isn't that just another term for taking 500 billion dollars from the medicare budget?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Seen any death panels lately?

Let's run a poll, see who believes it.



Musicmystery -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:09:20 AM)


quote:

On several levels this is theatre so bizarre that its almost pointless to speak the obvious



Thadius -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:09:24 AM)

Even if we ignore the poll numbers and stop speculating on what the anger at incumbants will translate into, the picture isn't all that rosey for the majority. Traditionally, there is a loss of seats to the president's party during the mid-term, it is even truer when the president's party is in the majority. There have been a few exceptions to this, but those exceptions also had special circumstances like the 9/11 attacks.

Looking at individual polling district by district, or even at approval numbers in "swing districts" it is quite likely that we will see the same type of move as we saw under Pres. Clinton during his first mid-terms. In any case, this will definitely be an interesting cycle.



Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:14:50 AM)


Democrats thinking that senior citizens will forget by November about their removing 500 billion dollars from medicaid -

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery


quote:

On several levels this is theatre so bizarre that its almost pointless to speak the obvious




The Americans public isn't nearly as stupid as you Democrats like to think, and so you guys are really, really fucked this fall.





Thadius -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:20:06 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


Democrats thinking that senior citizens will forget by November about their removing 500 billion dollars from medicaid -

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery


quote:

On several levels this is theatre so bizarre that its almost pointless to speak the obvious



That is the funny part of the argument, as a bunch of the cuts and taxes kick in just in time for the Oct headlines. Suicide is painless, it brings on many changes...



Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:23:30 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

That is the funny part of the argument, as a bunch of the cuts and taxes kick in just in time for the Oct headlines. Suicide is painless, it brings on many changes...


Yes. Again, there are no words to describe how utterly bizarre all this is to watch.





Musicmystery -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:32:53 AM)

quote:

Seen any death panels lately?

Let's run a poll, see who believes it.

Make that one vote for.



Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:40:10 AM)


Delude yourself all you like, what I wrote is clear and obvious enough. You're really going to need a lot more Kool-aide if you're going to convince very many people that your spin is relevant to anything, Muse.





Musicmystery -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:41:39 AM)

Repeating your take.

If that's spin, it's good you're starting to see that.



rulemylife -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:42:59 AM)

So let's summarize this article, and feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding.

Obama's current popularity ratings are because of excessive support from the black population?

And you see nothing slightly misguided in the writer's views?



Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:43:38 AM)


You've got a red mustache. [:D]

Any sign of the mother ship yet?







TheHeretic -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 9:51:54 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife
you see nothing slightly misguided in the writer's views?



Misguided...  What an interesting choice of words, RML.  I'm not sure I understand what you mean by that.  Are you suggesting that some demographic analysis should be ignored because it doesn't fit the pc standard?

Tell me, RML, just who do you think should be "guiding" the thinking of the writer?  Does he need re-education, perhaps?



flcouple2009 -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 12:45:32 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


That seems to be the Obama gambit in a nutshell.

We shall see.

[sm=popcorn.gif]

quote:

As an electorate, we aren't very smart.



it worked for Bush



popeye1250 -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 12:53:28 PM)

I just filled up the car two days ago at $2.79 a gallon!
Gas prices are rising and this sure will be comming up again!
And as I said in another thread, Obama needs James Carville in the White House yelling at him everyday; "IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID!"



Sanity -> RE: Propping up the Poll numbers (3/27/2010 1:30:48 PM)


Gas prices alone have the potential to cause us to go into a double dip recession. Do you think some of the Dems might come to regret Obamas fierce resistance to any expansion of domestic oil production?


quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

I just filled up the car two days ago at $2.79 a gallon!
Gas prices are rising and this sure will be comming up again!
And as I said in another thread, Obama needs James Carville in the White House yelling at him everyday; "IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID!"



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