FirmhandKY
Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
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This thread is related to my "How to Succeed In Your Search" thread.
The Numbers Game.
I've seen a lot of talk about searching for a partner(s), and the math of the search. The concept that I often see discussed, even if the exact word isn't used is "the numbers game".
I've not done a mathematical analysis of the members of this site, although I have done a rough statistical analysis on others from time to time. These figures are not scientifically valid, as in a mean, standard deviation and all that, but they are ones that I have basically worked out in my head over time.
Of course, my perceptions are heavily weighed towards what my search efforts (male straight dom for female straight sub) have been, and I'll present them that way, but there are certainly other ways to approach them.
1. Generally, the number of men searching heavily out-weighs the number of women searching. How much? My working figure is 10:1.
2. The number of actual "doms" is probably 10% of the men who actually have profiles. This, I think, is being very generous. This brings the actual ratio of doms to subs to 1:1. I like these odds much better.
3. Of the entire population of female subs, the age range of the women seems to be pretty evenly distributed. In other words, there seems to be about as many active 18-28 year olds, as 29-38 year olds, as 39-48 year olds. Break it down how you wish, in what increments you wish, but it looks pretty close. There does seem to be a skew in the longevity, where a younger sub will have a much shorter "half-life" in the time that her profile is active compared to a more mature female sub, so you could make the argument that there are more young subs over time - but I'm talking about a snapshot in time here.
4. Of the entire population of female subs, the ones within my age range (realistically a 10 year spread, weighted to the younger side), reduces my "available pool" to 1/4. This reduces my odds to 4:1.
5. Of the remaining subs, there are at least 3/4 of them that have issues that make us incompatible. It could be something as simple as a "limit" or "requirement" that I don't meet, or a "limit" or "requirement" that they don't meet for me. Probably half of that 3/4 is simply because the subs' profiles are empty, or might as well be empty, with only a line or two and little information for me to base any kind of rational (or emotional) decision on. Many of the others are already "taken" or "under consideration" or such. This decreases my odds to roughly 16:1.
6. Of course, although I discounted the number of actual doms by 90% because I don't really consider them competition - in actuality, they ARE men who will take up the time of a lot of subs, and even deceive a fair number, so perhaps I shouldn't totally discount them. So lets add ... oh .. say half of them back in. That increases my base "competition" by a factor of 5 (I originally had the odds at 10:1, reduced to 1:1, but adding half back in would have made that 5:1, which is a 5x increase). This makes my odds of even finding a profile of type of partner I want be around 80:1.
***
Now, the important part: Analysis.
What do all these figures mean?
NOT A DAMN THING.
Because if you approach your search as a numbers game, your head is in the absolutely, totally wrong place.
Even if your odds are reversed (as it is for the women), you can only handle, and find and engage with your total attention, one partner at a time (ok, maybe two if you are rich, young with 99 years of experience, studly as hell AND have a very big ego or are a mutant - maybe. Or maybe if your kink is to keep them in a closet or box until you want to inflate them for use, and that's their kink too).
Your actual odds in finding a match is always 1:1. It's between you, and the person you are approaching. If you approach it any other way, you are likely setting yourself up for failure, because you are not paying enough attention to the important things in establishing that relationship.
So, when people start giving advice like it's a number's game, while there is certainly some truth to it, there is also a lot of danger as well.
FHky
edited for: grammar.
< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 5/11/2006 9:33:08 AM >
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How to succeed in your search - The "Numbers"... - 
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but yes I agree on your conclusion. 
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