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Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 8:46:34 AM

willbeurdaddy

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The Chicago based Nadex is expected to announce betting on the 2012 election on Monday.

It would bring "intrade" type speculation to a regulated market in a big way. The expectation is that candidates could hedge their campaign costs by betting against themselves, and businesses could hedge what they perceive to be a negative outcome. Since those are likely to be the big dollars traded it could influence elections in that people could misnterpret the market, thinking the betting "favorite" is the likely winner, and vote that way just to say they voted for the winner.

Personally I dont think I like the idea, but havent thought about it that deeply yet.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 12/20/2011 8:52:41 AM >

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RE: Merc to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 8:54:31 AM

mnottertail

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It does absolutely nothing for this country..........

For those in a free and open society who would remove any of the last vestiges of the reason that these markets were created, for the orderly business of the country, and speculate to the detriment of this country I say...

Let them come to Vegas.

Lasst sie nach Vegas kommen.

JFK Melby

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 12/20/2011 8:55:44 AM >

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RE: Merc to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 12:29:29 PM

DarkSteven

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That's just weird.

I don't expect candidates to use it. If I was running against someone and he or she bet against themself, I'd simply publicize that fact, that even my candidate expected to lose. PR disaster.

The good thing about this would be that I could claim to be pro- or anti- any group or served population, and the Nadex would show how the real world viewed my stands and expected actions much more realistically than my own speeches.

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RE: Merc to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 12:40:39 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

That's just weird.

I don't expect candidates to use it. If I was running against someone and he or she bet against themself, I'd simply publicize that fact, that even my candidate expected to lose. PR disaster.

The good thing about this would be that I could claim to be pro- or anti- any group or served population, and the Nadex would show how the real world viewed my stands and expected actions much more realistically than my own speeches.

I dont think you can, because themovement between longs vs hedges will be too hard to judge.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to DarkSteven)

Post #: 4

RE: Merc to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 12:44:28 PM

popeye1250

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We need to give them $10 m out of the general fund and "give it your best shot."

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RE: Merc to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 12:49:08 PM

mnottertail

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We do not need to spend our money on these losers, no fuckin nothing from the general fund.

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Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30

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Post #: 6

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 4:03:06 PM

NeedToUseYou

Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
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hrmmmm, and I opened an intrade account about a month ago.

UP 10%, unfortunately don't have much money in it. I don't see why betting on elections is any worse than betting on anything else, like betting what the interest rate Bernanke will decide for us over the next year, betting on whether we'll attack Iran, and if buying oil would be a good bet.

It's all betting based on what some fuckwits in DC are going to decide to do, so why not bet on who will be the next fuckwit.

Like during the bailouts I bet they wouldn't do something (I can't remember anymore), and thus bought some stock, unfortunately I was wrong on predicting what the FED would do, so lost some money, I didn't bet on the stocks but rather bought the stocks because of a bet on a government decision.

So, let the market be absolutely as ridiculous as possible, as it already is to a larger and larger degree a game of guessing what the government will do.

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)

Post #: 7

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 4:11:44 PM

kalikshama

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Who wrote a short story about only one person casting the vote in the election?

(in reply to willbeurdaddy)

Post #: 8

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 4:45:15 PM

Aylee

Posts: 24103
Joined: 10/14/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

The Chicago based Nadex is expected to announce betting on the 2012 election on Monday.

It would bring "intrade" type speculation to a regulated market in a big way. The expectation is that candidates could hedge their campaign costs by betting against themselves, and businesses could hedge what they perceive to be a negative outcome. Since those are likely to be the big dollars traded it could influence elections in that people could misnterpret the market, thinking the betting "favorite" is the likely winner, and vote that way just to say they voted for the winner.

Personally I dont think I like the idea, but havent thought about it that deeply yet.

Is this like a horse or dog race where we can choose "Win, Place, or Show"?

Is there a trifecta option?

I only went to the dog track once, so I will have to bone up on betting strategies.

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Post #: 9

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 5:49:49 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kalikshama

Who wrote a short story about only one person casting the vote in the election?

I dont know the story you are referring to.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to kalikshama)

Post #: 10

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 8:46:10 PM

Aylee

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Joined: 10/14/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: kalikshama

Who wrote a short story about only one person casting the vote in the election?

http://www.snopes.com/history/govern/onevote.asp

_____________________________

Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam

I don’t always wgah’nagl fhtagn. But when I do, I ph’nglui mglw’nafh R’lyeh.

(in reply to kalikshama)

Post #: 11

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/20/2011 10:28:40 PM

OCDsCPL

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Joined: 3/14/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aylee

quote:

ORIGINAL: kalikshama

Who wrote a short story about only one person casting the vote in the election?

http://www.snopes.com/history/govern/onevote.asp

LOL. Ann Landers?

< Message edited by OCDsCPL -- 12/20/2011 10:31:28 PM >

(in reply to Aylee)

Post #: 12

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/21/2011 12:54:28 AM

Aylee

Posts: 24103
Joined: 10/14/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: OCDsCPL

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aylee

quote:

ORIGINAL: kalikshama

Who wrote a short story about only one person casting the vote in the election?

http://www.snopes.com/history/govern/onevote.asp

LOL. Ann Landers?

She has perpetuated the story, yes.

_____________________________

Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam

I don’t always wgah’nagl fhtagn. But when I do, I ph’nglui mglw’nafh R’lyeh.

(in reply to OCDsCPL)

Post #: 13

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/21/2011 6:59:07 AM

kalikshama

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Thanks, but that wasn't it. I'm thinking of a proper short story where the use of statistics had led to giving one person the sole vote in a national election.

Got it! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)

In the future, the United States has converted to an "electronic democracy" where the computer Multivac selects a single person to answer a number of questions. Multivac will then use the answers and other data to determine what the results of an election would be, avoiding the need for an actual election to be held.

The story centers around Norman Muller, the man chosen as "Voter of the Year" in 2008. Although the law requires him to accept the dubious honour, he is not sure that he wants the responsibility of representing the entire electorate, worrying that the result will be unfavorable and he will be blamed.

However, after 'voting', he is very proud that the citizens of the United States had, through him, "exercised once again their free, untrammeled franchise" - a statement that is somewhat ironic as the citizens didn't actually get to vote.

The idea of a computer predicting whom the electorate would vote for instead of actually holding an election was probably inspired by the UNIVAC I's correct prediction of the result of the 1952 election.

I started with Stephen King, then Bradbury, then Heinlein, but it was Asimov :)

So y'all don't think I'm completely off topic, I started thinking about the consequences of the stock market picking the winner, and was reminded of this.

< Message edited by kalikshama -- 12/21/2011 7:05:42 AM >

(in reply to Aylee)

Post #: 14

RE: Nadex to introduce Presidential election market - 12/21/2011 9:30:36 AM

willbeurdaddy

Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: kalikshama

Thanks, but that wasn't it. I'm thinking of a proper short story where the use of statistics had led to giving one person the sole vote in a national election.

Got it! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)

In the future, the United States has converted to an "electronic democracy" where the computer Multivac selects a single person to answer a number of questions. Multivac will then use the answers and other data to determine what the results of an election would be, avoiding the need for an actual election to be held.

The story centers around Norman Muller, the man chosen as "Voter of the Year" in 2008. Although the law requires him to accept the dubious honour, he is not sure that he wants the responsibility of representing the entire electorate, worrying that the result will be unfavorable and he will be blamed.

However, after 'voting', he is very proud that the citizens of the United States had, through him, "exercised once again their free, untrammeled franchise" - a statement that is somewhat ironic as the citizens didn't actually get to vote.

The idea of a computer predicting whom the electorate would vote for instead of actually holding an election was probably inspired by the UNIVAC I's correct prediction of the result of the 1952 election.

I started with Stephen King, then Bradbury, then Heinlein, but it was Asimov :)

So y'all don't think I'm completely off topic, I started thinking about the consequences of the stock market picking the winner, and was reminded of this.

One step closer with the "Americans Elect" getting candidates on the ballot. Very easy to nominate a candidate who will be a spoiler to one of the major party candidates, ensuring the election of the other one. Fraudulent signatures had better be prosecuted and examples made, or representative democracy is in big trouble.

_____________________________

Hear the lark
and harken
to the barking of the dogfox,
gone to ground.

(in reply to kalikshama)

Post #: 15

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