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MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:10:40 AM

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Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.

ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody's Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.

"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

This is not good at all. How can anyone make any business decisions in an environment like this?

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:11:30 AM

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Statistics are statistics, there is no real number system involved.

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:12:29 AM

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When I was in grad school, there was a saying. "No matter what your data says, if you torture it enough, it'll confess"

As per the OP, is anyone surprised?

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:14:05 AM

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It also means that unemployment was at least 8% and upwards to 16% or more under republican administrations then.

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:19:04 AM

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"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

Which means A PRIVATE FIRM IS CHANGING THE WAY THE ACCEPTED FORMULA WORKS ... JUST BEFORE AN ELECTION
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... HOW DESPERATE CAN ROMNEY'S BACKERS GET?

Too little, too late

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:26:38 AM

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Tick Tock

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:37:29 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Tick Tock

Need help getting to the polls?

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:42:30 AM

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To summarize: "If you think America created jobs, it didn't. ADP made that happen."

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 11:47:25 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

To summarize: "If you think America created jobs, it didn't. ADP made that happen."

Nice big republican company.
Too bad they cooked the books too late.

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 12:28:30 PM

stef

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Come on, they would never do that!

< Message edited by stef -- 10/31/2012 12:32:08 PM >

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 12:38:50 PM

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from the same article.....

economists expect Friday's report to show 125,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold steady.

< Message edited by subspaceseven -- 10/31/2012 12:55:17 PM >

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 3:00:28 PM

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So Obama can't even claim the unemployment numbers are the same as 2008 anymore... Like everything else he's touched, it's worse.

6.5 days... Tick tock

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 3:02:30 PM

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Hey wait....
Obama quit didn't he?

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 3:25:37 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

So Obama can't even claim the unemployment numbers are the same as 2008 anymore... Like everything else he's touched, it's worse.

Employment numbers have been skewed for quite some time, well prior to Obama. Just look at the changes in definitions used to reach the numbers.

I don't blame Obama for the skew, but he signed onto the numbers. So he owns them.

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 10/31/2012 4:39:14 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie
Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.
ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.
The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody's Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.
"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."
This is not good at all. How can anyone make any business decisions in an environment like this?

ADP is changing their formula to be more consistent with Government numbers. According to the story, the new formula will align 96% with Government numbers. ADP does not provide government numbers. ADP isn't the BLS. Since the BLS wasnt' using ADP's 162k job growth before, why is there such a huge concern about it dropping almost in half? It's still not the BLS number.

quote:

Economists and investors look at the monthly data compiled by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (US:ADP), the nation’s largest processor of company payrolls and the distribution of checks to employees, to glean clues on how many new jobs the government is likely to report.

Investors and economists are looking at the ADP numbers to see if they can guess the BLS numbers the following day. It isn't necessarily an indicator.

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 11/1/2012 5:40:39 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.

ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody's Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.

"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

This is not good at all. How can anyone make any business decisions in an environment like this?

You should go tell Fox business your information...
https://twitter.com/FoxBusiness

5mFOX Business ‏@FoxBusiness
Breaking: Jobless claims fell to 363,000 last week from upwardly revised 372,000 the week before.

20m FOX Business ‏@FoxBusiness
Breaking: U.S. private sector adds 158,000 jobs in October from September, according to ADP. Expectations were for 135,000.

Im gonna wait for the legit numbers to come out, yanno the BLS ones, but ..im hopeful they are close

oh and Bloomberg has this
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-01/adp-says-u-s-companies-added-158-000-workers-in-october.html

< Message edited by Lucylastic -- 11/1/2012 5:47:07 AM >

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 11/1/2012 5:48:30 AM

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From the article "ADP occasionally has come under criticism for releasing data that is often widely disparate with the government's final count."

So the conservatives have their own facts and data when the official ones won't do.

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 11/1/2012 5:52:02 AM

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Im sure if the "official numbers" are worse than ADP , they will swing back to the official ones fast enough

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RE: MAJOR Uh Oh! - 11/1/2012 7:08:35 AM

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thats around 650K jobs a month. Just think, doubling that, like every administration before him as ADP has done, 1.2 million jobs a month, thats more than Willard said he can do.

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