RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (Full Version)

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Real0ne -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 5:42:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53


quote:

ORIGINAL: WantsOfTheFlesh

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
I don't understand how anyone fell for this shit in the US and I don't really understand how anyone else falls for it either. Why isn't "too big to fail" synonymous with "too fucked up to allow to continue"?

thing is tha banks will cause damage no matter if the state props 'em up or they fail. its about picking the lesser of 2 evils. "too big to fail" could be an excuse but maybe sometimes it really would drag economies down or even destroy 'em.


The domino effect in the US would have been catastophic if banks had been allowed to fail, even cursory reading of the situation in 2008 tells you that.

Whats laughable here is those who were pissing and moaning about not letting banks go to the wall, are also pissing and moaning about taking money from depositors.

Does anyone on the good ship Clueless have any notion what would have happened to depositors savings if banks had been allowed to fail ?



the TRUSTEES would have been shot




deathtothepixies -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 5:45:25 PM)

no they wouldn't realone, try again, because again no one gives a shit




DesideriScuri -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 6:36:30 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
Bigger question would be whether savings or other monetary accounts (401k's, IRA's, investment portfolio's, etc.) can be defined as "property" for the purpose of takings law
Wouldn't that be one helluva Government fuckjob!

Yes, and as such has already been discussed in various circles. 401-Ks seized and placed into new and improved government personal savings plans. Of course what will be in them will be IOUs. That concept is not new. They've been taking money from SS for many many years. Now they are looking for more.


Taking from Social Security, though, isn't the same. It's not private property. But, 401k's and other savings vehicles are private property. SS is public money. If private savings accounts are simply private property and available for the taking (pun intended), then is anything really owned by private Citizens?

How would this be for a ploy to get money? Have a bank "fail" in such a way that everything is lost to government, except that which is covered by the FDIC. Everyone with less than $250k +$1 is good, but the rest is lost. If Government can figure out a way to finagle that, what's to stop it from doing so?




DesideriScuri -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 6:54:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53
quote:

ORIGINAL: WantsOfTheFlesh
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
I don't understand how anyone fell for this shit in the US and I don't really understand how anyone else falls for it either. Why isn't "too big to fail" synonymous with "too fucked up to allow to continue"?

thing is tha banks will cause damage no matter if the state props 'em up or they fail. its about picking the lesser of 2 evils. "too big to fail" could be an excuse but maybe sometimes it really would drag economies down or even destroy 'em.

The domino effect in the US would have been catastophic if banks had been allowed to fail, even cursory reading of the situation in 2008 tells you that.
Whats laughable here is those who were pissing and moaning about not letting banks go to the wall, are also pissing and moaning about taking money from depositors.
Does anyone on the good ship Clueless have any notion what would have happened to depositors savings if banks had been allowed to fail ?


All deposits over $250k would have been lost. And, the banks would have had a shit of a time getting people to believe in banks again, most likely leading to significantly lower risk taking.




WantsOfTheFlesh -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 7:05:03 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
quote:

ORIGINAL: WantsOfTheFlesh
thing is tha banks will cause damage no matter if the state props 'em up or they fail. its about picking the lesser of 2 evils. "too big to fail" could be an excuse but maybe sometimes it really would drag economies down or even destroy 'em.

Yeah... which would be neat all except for the fact that it's the banks which are destroying the economies. So I fail to see how helping them helps the economy. In other words, if I have two different ways to "destroy an economy" and one of them at least attempts to help the victims and doesn't reward the perpetrators I'll go with that one.

As someone else so succinctly put it, the name of the game is privatizing gains and socializing losses.

wasnt just the banks destroying economies. it was the culture to become more reckless for more gain. banks are essential for economies. it was a failure of regulation, self-regulation & state regulation.




WantsOfTheFlesh -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 7:20:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53
quote:

ORIGINAL: WantsOfTheFlesh
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
I don't understand how anyone fell for this shit in the US and I don't really understand how anyone else falls for it either. Why isn't "too big to fail" synonymous with "too fucked up to allow to continue"?

thing is tha banks will cause damage no matter if the state props 'em up or they fail. its about picking the lesser of 2 evils. "too big to fail" could be an excuse but maybe sometimes it really would drag economies down or even destroy 'em.

The domino effect in the US would have been catastophic if banks had been allowed to fail, even cursory reading of the situation in 2008 tells you that.
Whats laughable here is those who were pissing and moaning about not letting banks go to the wall, are also pissing and moaning about taking money from depositors.
Does anyone on the good ship Clueless have any notion what would have happened to depositors savings if banks had been allowed to fail ?

All deposits over $250k would have been lost. And, the banks would have had a shit of a time getting people to believe in banks again, most likely leading to significantly lower risk taking.

seems the system relies on trust even if its not deserved. folks having no trust will mean recession big time wit no cash going out tha other way to businesses. now theres a real boon for the nra to keep the guns wit big time mattress stuffin'. lol




Real0ne -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 8:23:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
Bigger question would be whether savings or other monetary accounts (401k's, IRA's, investment portfolio's, etc.) can be defined as "property" for the purpose of takings law
Wouldn't that be one helluva Government fuckjob!

Yes, and as such has already been discussed in various circles. 401-Ks seized and placed into new and improved government personal savings plans. Of course what will be in them will be IOUs. That concept is not new. They've been taking money from SS for many many years. Now they are looking for more.


Taking from Social Security, though, isn't the same. It's not private property. But, 401k's and other savings vehicles are private property. SS is public money. If private savings accounts are simply private property and available for the taking (pun intended), then is anything really owned by private Citizens?

How would this be for a ploy to get money? Have a bank "fail" in such a way that everything is lost to government, except that which is covered by the FDIC. Everyone with less than $250k +$1 is good, but the rest is lost. If Government can figure out a way to finagle that, what's to stop it from doing so?




ss is a revolving pool, its a trust account. hahahahahahaha

oh and the FDIC? Its broke!




FrostedFlake -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 8:27:26 PM)

quote:

As someone else so succinctly put it, the name of the game is privatizing gains and socializing losses.


Backwards bank-robbery.

Inverted Robin Hood.

Removal of the only restraint ever put on a corporation, economic repercussions for bad decisions.

And what would be sufficient compulsion to "encourage" depositors to put their money at risk so another may profit? For this plan to work, briefly, all alternatives must be outlawed, taxed or restricted.

It sounds to me the plan is to go belly up and then rake in the chips. But, at that point, the game ends. I would never put my money in a bank that had ever taken any of it. I can't understand why anyone else would hold a different view. This is the service banks provide. It seems a very odd plan.

I have to admire the boldness of the gambit.




vincentML -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/19/2013 8:57:52 PM)

quote:

All deposits over $250k would have been lost. And, the banks would have had a shit of a time getting people to believe in banks again, most likely leading to significantly lower risk taking.

Firstly, let's understand that over 50% of working people in this country hardly have $25K in savings. So, mostly it is a moot point.

Secondly, people with significant funds do not often keep more than $250k in one bank. If they have millions their money is probably in the Caymen Islands.

Here is a list of banks that failed in the FDIC system since 2000. It is an eye opener: FDIC SOURCE No deposits were lost, no accounts were seized. No deposits have been lost since 1934.

The reason why the big banks HAD to be saved in 2008 was because they had loads of falsely valued mortgage backed securities on their account books while homeowners were defaulting on their mortgages. The bundled securities in turn were tied into bets made by credit default swaps. The whole thing was a house of cards. Credit availability was suddenly frozen, business could not borrow, and even money market funds were in danger of being devalued. The Fed stepped in and transferred the toxic MBS off the banks' books and pretty much saved our economy.

I can't really give you numbers but I suspect the private property being considered for seizure in this thread would amount to little more than spit in the ocean because the value of 401Ks would likely plunge and be nearly worthless during the crisis. I submit that all this fear of seizing private accounts is probably a fruitless exercise because they would be worthless. Think about it. Do you really think your money would have any value in the event of a crash of the banking system? That's why it can't be allowed to happen.

The only solutions to 'too big to fail' that I have heard seem reasonable are (a) break up the big banks, (b) enforce a hardened Volker rule to seperate deposits from proprietary investments, (c) require the banks to raise sufficient capital through stock sales to cover their loan and investment activity . . . or all three.

Just my [sm=2cents.gif]




DesideriScuri -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 5:18:53 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

All deposits over $250k would have been lost. And, the banks would have had a shit of a time getting people to believe in banks again, most likely leading to significantly lower risk taking.

Firstly, let's understand that over 50% of working people in this country hardly have $25K in savings. So, mostly it is a moot point.


I understand that. And, it could be "sold" as a safe method by Big Gov since the majority will not be hit outside of possible couple days of no access to their funds.

quote:

Secondly, people with significant funds do not often keep more than $250k in one bank. If they have millions their money is probably in the Caymen Islands.


If they're smart, they have everything under $250k, so this may only hit the stupid and rich (a fool and his money thing, eh?).

quote:

Here is a list of banks that failed in the FDIC system since 2000. It is an eye opener: FDIC SOURCE No deposits were lost, no accounts were seized. No deposits have been lost since 1934.


You mean the FDIC did it's job? Good. Did the FDIC require any taxpayer money to do so?

quote:

The reason why the big banks HAD to be saved in 2008 was because they had loads of falsely valued mortgage backed securities on their account books while homeowners were defaulting on their mortgages. The bundled securities in turn were tied into bets made by credit default swaps. The whole thing was a house of cards. Credit availability was suddenly frozen, business could not borrow, and even money market funds were in danger of being devalued. The Fed stepped in and transferred the toxic MBS off the banks' books and pretty much saved our economy.
I can't really give you numbers but I suspect the private property being considered for seizure in this thread would amount to little more than spit in the ocean because the value of 401Ks would likely plunge and be nearly worthless during the crisis. I submit that all this fear of seizing private accounts is probably a fruitless exercise because they would be worthless. Think about it. Do you really think your money would have any value in the event of a crash of the banking system? That's why it can't be allowed to happen.
The only solutions to 'too big to fail' that I have heard seem reasonable are (a) break up the big banks, (b) enforce a hardened Volker rule to seperate deposits from proprietary investments, (c) require the banks to raise sufficient capital through stock sales to cover their loan and investment activity . . . or all three.
Just my [sm=2cents.gif]


I respect your viewpoint Vincent. If pretty much the entire big banking system was built on a house of cards, bailing them out did what? Supported the house of cards. It would have been extremely ugly and tough had it all fallen down. I still support the idea that it should have all fallen down, regardless. It's not that I want people to suffer, but that would be natural consequence of allowing too risky decisions. Not all banks or lenders had money tied up in incorrectly valued assets. Why let a bank, investment house, or lender off the hook because they didn't do their due diligence? If investments were made into faulty products, then those investments should take the consequences. If the investors scream about having been fraudulently sold into the investments, then that needs to be investigated and the consequences exacted from the ones that fraudulently sold the products. If it was the rating houses, then they should be taken to task.

We would have recovered. We will still recover from what happened and how it was handled. I fully believe we'd be on significantly more solid ground than we are at this time. The economy would have been rebuilt on a better foundation. Markets would be more properly valued. Yes, it would have sucked. Yes, the Democrats would have won in 2008 even if they ran a tree stump for a candidate.




Yachtie -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 5:22:25 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

The only solutions to 'too big to fail' that I have heard seem reasonable are (a) break up the big banks, (b) enforce a hardened Volker rule to seperate deposits from proprietary investments, (c) require the banks to raise sufficient capital through stock sales to cover their loan and investment activity . . . or all three.

Just my [sm=2cents.gif]


Absolutely. Unfortunately TPTB seem unwilling to do that.




Politesub53 -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 5:31:41 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

All deposits over $250k would have been lost. And, the banks would have had a shit of a time getting people to believe in banks again, most likely leading to significantly lower risk taking.



Thats long term thinking. Short term the economy would have collapsed.






JeffBC -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 5:31:53 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
If pretty much the entire big banking system was built on a house of cards, bailing them out did what? Supported the house of cards.

Well no, not only did we maintain the house of cards but we transferred billions of dollars directly into the wallets of the very people who knowingly perpetrated this fraud. So now what we have is an ongoing situation where we continue to have the crooks handling everyone else's money and we continue to bail them out and the whole problem is simply getting worse and worse.

When you sweep shit under the rug it does not get better.

I would have much rather prosecuted the guilty, tried to help the innocent, and paid the lumps for our lack of diligence in trusting the financial community. In other words, Iceland was smart. To my knowledge that's the only country that actually attacked the fraud of the international finance community.




Politesub53 -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 5:33:26 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: WantsOfTheFlesh

wasnt just the banks destroying economies. it was the culture to become more reckless for more gain. banks are essential for economies. it was a failure of regulation, self-regulation & state regulation.


We have a winner !




Yachtie -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 5:50:30 AM)

FR

From the site that shall not be named -

While Spain's economy minister Luis De Guindos proclaimed in the Senate today that bank deposits under EUR100,000 are "sacred"and that "Spanish savers should stay calm," Spain, it would appear, has changed constitutional rules to enable a so-called 'moderate' levy on deposits - as under previous Spanish law this was prohibited.

...it now leaves the door open to eventually effectively taxing the deposits.


There is a link to an article, here, which was run through Google translate. A better translation would be nice.

The EU, like all financial systems that are in trouble, are scrambling for funds. The genie is out of the bottle. I really doubt TPTB want to put it back in.





vincentML -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 7:39:53 AM)

quote:

I respect your viewpoint Vincent. If pretty much the entire big banking system was built on a house of cards, bailing them out did what? Supported the house of cards. It would have been extremely ugly and tough had it all fallen down. I still support the idea that it should have all fallen down, regardless. It's not that I want people to suffer, but that would be natural consequence of allowing too risky decisions. Not all banks or lenders had money tied up in incorrectly valued assets. Why let a bank, investment house, or lender off the hook because they didn't do their due diligence? If investments were made into faulty products, then those investments should take the consequences. If the investors scream about having been fraudulently sold into the investments, then that needs to be investigated and the consequences exacted from the ones that fraudulently sold the products. If it was the rating houses, then they should be taken to task.

DS . .

Many businesses depend on short term (seven day) loans to meet their payrolls. And I think many small banks depend on the Fed open window for liquidity. It would be a disaster.

Furthermore, the investment banks were leveraged as much as 43/1. They had $43 invested in shit for every one $1 to support their investments. AIG had sold credit default insurance but had no cash to pay out when the MBS bundles caved. Additionally, many European banks were holding the toxic bundles which had been rated AAA eroniously/feloniously. I can't imagine how we would come around if the whole system collapsed. I am not one for catastrophic thinking but we had a damn scarey few days in 2008.

I would guess your proposed scenario is out of the question. The time is now for preventative regulations but unfortunately there is a ton of lobby money successfully watering down the Dodd-Frank rules. So, stay tuned for crash #2.



[image]local://upfiles/897398/305B516FFADE4C6EB966482674695A21.jpg[/image]




DesideriScuri -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 8:01:14 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
DS . .
Many businesses depend on short term (seven day) loans to meet their payrolls. And I think many small banks depend on the Fed open window for liquidity. It would be a disaster.
Furthermore, the investment banks were leveraged as much as 43/1. They had $43 invested in shit for every one $1 to support their investments. AIG had sold credit default insurance but had no cash to pay out when the MBS bundles caved. Additionally, many European banks were holding the toxic bundles which had been rated AAA eroniously/feloniously. I can't imagine how we would come around if the whole system collapsed. I am not one for catastrophic thinking but we had a damn scarey few days in 2008.


Should banks have been leveraged 43:1? Should that have been allowed? The banks that weren't leveraged that much would fare better. Wouldn't allowing them to have crashed also taught that lesson? If a bank can't stand on it's own two feet without having to rely on The Fed, wtf is going on? Isn't The Fed supposed to be the lender of last resort? And, did a business grow too quickly to not be able to meet payroll without financing it?

We would come around. Why? Because there is no other choice. Seriously. We didn't always have this. It had to be created in the first place. How would we do it? Well, we'd likely have to restart with a barter economy and coming together as a community to take care of those in the community. To be honest, I think that is something that needs to be done anyway (the coming together as a community to build and have a thriving community).

Yes, it would have been damn ugly. I'm not even sure it wasn't just kicked down the road, either.

quote:

I would guess your proposed scenario is out of the question. The time is now for preventative regulations but unfortunately there is a ton of lobby money successfully watering down the Dodd-Frank rules. So, stay tuned for crash #2.


Dodd-Frank wouldn't have prevented the meltdown. The CBO said that right out of the gate. And, how is it that we relied on Dodd and Frank to author the supposed fix when they were complicit?




JeffBC -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 8:04:01 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
Should banks have been leveraged 43:1? Should that have been allowed? The banks that weren't leveraged that much would fare better.

I'm not sure that's true. As I understand it the real problem was with the massive magnification that the derivatives provided along with the phony "insurance" and phony ratings which allowed them to continue. I suspect that if banks were leveraged 2:1 and they participated in the whole derivatives fraud thing they'd have gotten burned badly.




DesideriScuri -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 8:04:31 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
If pretty much the entire big banking system was built on a house of cards, bailing them out did what? Supported the house of cards.

Well no, not only did we maintain the house of cards but we transferred billions of dollars directly into the wallets of the very people who knowingly perpetrated this fraud. So now what we have is an ongoing situation where we continue to have the crooks handling everyone else's money and we continue to bail them out and the whole problem is simply getting worse and worse.
When you sweep shit under the rug it does not get better.


What we haven't learned yet, is when you sweep shit under the rug, not only does it not get better, it tends to get stinkier and messier.

quote:

I would have much rather prosecuted the guilty, tried to help the innocent, and paid the lumps for our lack of diligence in trusting the financial community. In other words, Iceland was smart. To my knowledge that's the only country that actually attacked the fraud of the international finance community.


I won't comment on Iceland since I don't know much about how they responded.

The question is, who were the guilty? Who were the truly innocent? What would those "lumps" have been and who would have paid them? And, on first blush, I completely agree with you. The devil being in the details, though, we might not agree completely.




DesideriScuri -> RE: New Zealand is thinking of going all Cyprus (3/20/2013 8:08:13 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
Should banks have been leveraged 43:1? Should that have been allowed? The banks that weren't leveraged that much would fare better.

I'm not sure that's true. As I understand it the real problem was with the massive magnification that the derivatives provided along with the phony "insurance" and phony ratings which allowed them to continue. I suspect that if banks were leveraged 2:1 and they participated in the whole derivatives fraud thing they'd have gotten burned badly.


They still would have gotten burned, but 10:1 is a lot less burning than 43:1. How would you treat an institution if you were able to get back 10% vs. 2½% (roughly)? If a bank is less leveraged, there are more options available, too.




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