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THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/18/2015 5:52:06 PM

outlier

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http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

The Really Big One
An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.

"By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people."

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/18/2015 6:57:35 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: outlier

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

The Really Big One
An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.

"By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people."

yeah, I was in Vancouver, BC when the Nisqually earthquake hit Seattle.. 6.8 ..omg.. after my house finally stopped shaking i started going to earthquake seminars and learning a bit about construction and natural disasters.. so I am somewhat aware of the earthquake risk.. There really is no place that is safe, there is always something mother nature can hit you with.. Memorial day here in houston there was a 1 in 500 year flood.. there are pics of dozens of cars stranded on flooded freeways that looked like a huge lakes.. one house near a river by Austin was washed away with the family inside.. It seems that no matter the disaster plans cities have in place, they arent good enough...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Nisqually_earthquake

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 2:18:19 AM

spellslave

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Geology and seismology as a niche subject within that is something of interest to me. In some ways I regret not studying it beyond sixth form, but, the career prospects weren't as good as they are elsewhere in the world. Still, fascinating. Potentially terrifying, but fascinating.

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 11:59:32 AM

littleladybug

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444

yeah, I was in Vancouver, BC when the Nisqually earthquake hit Seattle.. 6.8 ..omg..

There are places around metro Vancouver that will literally *dissolve* in the event of a huge quake.

Living in "Cascadia" now reminds me of when I lived in New Orleans in the early 2000's. When I was there, there was the general knowledge that it was only a matter of time before the "big one" (hurricane) would be coming-- but there had been so many near misses that warnings were just not taken as seriously as they should have been.

This really isn't news for those who live around here. I know, for me, I'd rather live on the I5 corridor and take my chances than anyplace else in the world.

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 12:07:22 PM

DesFIP

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That's a very frightening article. What I didn't understand is why there are no funds available for rebuilding in a safer place. Schools, hospitals, nursing homes are in the inundation zone and they can't get any government funding to move.

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 12:27:10 PM

Sanity

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesFIP

That's a very frightening article. What I didn't understand is why there are no funds available for rebuilding in a safer place. Schools, hospitals, nursing homes are in the inundation zone and they can't get any government funding to move.

The required bonds and levys are voted down by large margins, and a sense of false confidence in evacuation plans is nurtured when faced with daunting tasks such as abandoning what seem like perfectly good multi-million dollar facilities

The article talked like there are no tsunami warning systems along the pacific, but I know for a fact that is not true. I also know that evacuation routes are well marked, all along the coast

No matter what though, if a very large tsunami ever hits

Like this

A lot of people will perish, simply because so many people grossly underestimate their power or will believe that its just another false warning. Or they take the time to gather the people and / or things that are precious to them, which in that situation there would be absolutely no time for that

The quake hits, the sirens go off, find higher ground now. Period.

< Message edited by Sanity -- 7/19/2015 12:32:30 PM >

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 12:39:25 PM

littleladybug

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

I also know that evacuation routs are well marked, all along the coast

I see the issue as not the marking, but the usability of them.

If a tsunami were to come on the Washington coast, there are just way too many people to evacuate on way too small roads. Literally, these roads are one lane in each direction, with the occasional two lanes.

And, yes, there are definitely tsunami warning systems. They've been used several times over the past years.

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 2:25:20 PM

outlier

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Interesting follow up.

Interview and live chat with Dr. Goldfinger.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/07/quake_tsunami_experts_advise_n.html

It appears to be pretty much the standard stuff you hear if
you live in earthquake areas.

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 6:13:08 PM

Sanity

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quote:

ORIGINAL: littleladybug

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

I also know that evacuation routs are well marked, all along the coast

I see the issue as not the marking, but the usability of them.

If a tsunami were to come on the Washington coast, there are just way too many people to evacuate on way too small roads. Literally, these roads are one lane in each direction, with the occasional two lanes.

And, yes, there are definitely tsunami warning systems. They've been used several times over the past years.

In that place go to plan B

Run

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 6:51:51 PM

dcnovice

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quote:

I was in Vancouver, BC when the Nisqually earthquake hit Seattle.. 6.8 ..omg..

That sounds terrifying.

Back in grammar school, a friend's mom talked about living through the 1964 Anchorage quake (magnitude 9.2). She said she truly thought it was the end of the world at first.

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/19/2015 11:27:26 PM

outlier

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Something to keep in mind about quakes;
the Richter Scale has a logarithmic base.

Each full number is 10 times the previous one.
This has a very powerful multiplying effect!

A 7 is 10 times a six, an 8 is 10 times that. So
an 8 is 100 (10 X 10) times as strong as a 6.

A 9 is 10 times an 8. So a 9 is 1000 times as
strong as a 6 at it's peak and goes on longer.
A really scary thought.

I have been in Southern California my whole life.
I was in the East San Fernando Valley (Burbank)
for both the Sylmar and Northridge quakes.

I have an earthquake kit in each vehicle. And supplies
in my home. And in a medium size 6.? I expect to be
fine during the quake and afterwards.

But there is no way to bolt your home to the foundation
that will have any saving effect if the earth it sits on/in,
which is normally solid, suddenly moves a number of feet
in a few seconds as it can in a magnitude 9.

I'll bet she was terrified. From the films I have seen anyone
would be.

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/20/2015 4:08:53 PM

MercTech

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That sounds about right. West of I-5 might be the portion on the Pacific tectonic plate and east of the Cascades would be on the North American tectonic plate.

http://worldlywise.pbworks.com/w/page/26834992/The%20causes%20and%20effects%20of%20earthquakes%20and%20how%20people%20respond%20to%20them

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_of_Fire

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RE: THE BIG ONE not in Calif, The Pacific Northwest - 7/20/2015 5:31:05 PM

LookieNoNookie

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quote:

ORIGINAL: outlier

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

The Really Big One
An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.

"By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people."

I'm not quite sure what the point was here.

It's gonna happen.

It's gonna be devastating.

Awfulness will be the only definition.

Madness and destruction will be in full bloom.

And?

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