Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (Full Version)

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Musicmystery -> Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (7/29/2016 6:45:11 AM)

Between 52% -70%, generally around 60% depending on which poll, Americans hate both major party candidates, even their own. Even among supporters, the argument centers not on the merits of their candidate, but on the threat of electing the other one. This is literally the lowest approval since polls were taken in history.

IF ever there were a time to support Libertarian Gary Johnson or the Green Party's Jill Stein, this is it -- a four way race, you're splitting both sides, and the numbers are with the underdog in popular approval: At least 26% each (or more) for Johnson and Stein, 24% each for Trump and Clinton at best . . . if we voted our preferences and not our fears.

"But you'll just elect the other candidate and waste your vote" right? Well, no.

First, for voters like me in NY or CA or the other states in the heavily democratic "blue wall," Clinton is going to win by a wide margin, so vote third party and build their status and lower ballot candidates with impunity. Similarly in heavily red states for Trump. The popular vote doesn't matter in the end (in terms of who's declared the winner). Only in a few swing states is this a legitimate worry. So go ahead and vote your preference.

"But if you split the vote up, you'll just send it to the House of Representatives if no one wins a majority in the electoral college!" Well first, Libertarians and/or Greens would have to win entire states. That would be awesome . . . but it doesn't seem likely. So again, vote third party and build these ways out of the two-party trap.

But what if people really did, and third parties won states?

Hopefully, if everyone did that, Libertarians or Greens would win the election. Wouldn't that be something!

But if not, enter the House of Representatives . . .

That does NOT mean that the Republican majority picks Trump -- because it's not majority rules: it's one vote per state delegation (Washington DC doesn't get to participate). And . . . 26 states have a Democratic majority in their House delegation. Presumably, given what we've seen from establishment Democrats this year, they would then elect Hilary Clinton. Further, Trump is not popular, and I'm not sure the 24 Republican majority delegations would go for Trump . . . but it doesn't really matter, since the House Democrats are certainly not going to defect on this one.

The Electoral Map, incidentally, heavily favors Hilary Clinton, even as she and Trump run neck and neck in the popular vote.

So reality is -- unless he can win a majority or electoral votes, Trump would be done.

And among third party voters, the Libertarian Party is more popular than the Green Party, so Trump would definitely lose votes. Sanders voters will be split between Clinton and Stein, with a handful going to Trump or just staying home.

Point is: "Voting third party is just going to elect Trump" is not at all necessarily true. This isn't Gore/Bush/Nadar Florida.

Stop voting for what you don't want just because somebody else flames greater fears. Vote for what you DO want, whether Trump, Clinton, Johnson, or Stein. And when people harass you over it, give them a little lesson in how the election process works.




DesideriScuri -> RE: Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (7/29/2016 2:35:33 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Between 52% -70%, generally around 60% depending on which poll, Americans hate both major party candidates, even their own. Even among supporters, the argument centers not on the merits of their candidate, but on the threat of electing the other one. This is literally the lowest approval since polls were taken in history.

IF ever there were a time to support Libertarian Gary Johnson or the Green Party's Jill Stein, this is it -- a four way race, you're splitting both sides, and the numbers are with the underdog in popular approval: At least 26% each (or more) for Johnson and Stein, 24% each for Trump and Clinton at best . . . if we voted our preferences and not our fears.

"But you'll just elect the other candidate and waste your vote" right? Well, no.

First, for voters like me in NY or CA or the other states in the heavily democratic "blue wall," Clinton is going to win by a wide margin, so vote third party and build their status and lower ballot candidates with impunity. Similarly in heavily red states for Trump. The popular vote doesn't matter in the end (in terms of who's declared the winner). Only in a few swing states is this a legitimate worry. So go ahead and vote your preference.

"But if you split the vote up, you'll just send it to the House of Representatives if no one wins a majority in the electoral college!" Well first, Libertarians and/or Greens would have to win entire states. That would be awesome . . . but it doesn't seem likely. So again, vote third party and build these ways out of the two-party trap.

But what if people really did, and third parties won states?

Hopefully, if everyone did that, Libertarians or Greens would win the election. Wouldn't that be something!

But if not, enter the House of Representatives . . .

That does NOT mean that the Republican majority picks Trump -- because it's not majority rules: it's one vote per state delegation (Washington DC doesn't get to participate). And . . . 26 states have a Democratic majority in their House delegation. Presumably, given what we've seen from establishment Democrats this year, they would then elect Hilary Clinton. Further, Trump is not popular, and I'm not sure the 24 Republican majority delegations would go for Trump . . . but it doesn't really matter, since the House Democrats are certainly not going to defect on this one.

The Electoral Map, incidentally, heavily favors Hilary Clinton, even as she and Trump run neck and neck in the popular vote.

So reality is -- unless he can win a majority or electoral votes, Trump would be done.

And among third party voters, the Libertarian Party is more popular than the Green Party, so Trump would definitely lose votes. Sanders voters will be split between Clinton and Stein, with a handful going to Trump or just staying home.

Point is: "Voting third party is just going to elect Trump" is not at all necessarily true. This isn't Gore/Bush/Nadar Florida.

Stop voting for what you don't want just because somebody else flames greater fears. Vote for what you DO want, whether Trump, Clinton, Johnson, or Stein. And when people harass you over it, give them a little lesson in how the election process works.


This.





MrRodgers -> RE: Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (7/29/2016 6:03:14 PM)

True enough but as I've said, it does not matter one iota who the new POUS will be. Whoever it is, will cooperate on the big issues.

All that any of them will be allowed to do, is chip around the edges. Just as with 'Yes we can' really meant...no we can't. The big issues will remain, such as:

.....no further bank regulations. (maintaining the value of equities and no investigations or prosecutions)

.....no real changes in corporate taxes, environment, financial, political rights and liabilities.

.....no change in the middle east politically or militarily. i.e.,

.....no change in the drone war. (vastly increased under Obama)

.....no change in the fight of ISIS/Syria et al

.....no change in taxes lower investment, corporate or income, except to reduce them.

.....no change in corporate subsidies or handouts, i.e., tax credits. (ethanol/agriculture) Obama actually proposed increasing them.

I am sure there are more but that's enough for now.



ThatDizzyChick -> RE: Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (7/29/2016 8:05:20 PM)

I suspect you are right.



ifmaz -> RE: Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (7/29/2016 8:14:10 PM)

Only one way to find out for sure: vote for a third party candidate.



JeffBC -> RE: Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (7/29/2016 10:08:34 PM)

~fast reply~

Heh, I already lost this election so I'm not very interested in who wins. My vote, dollars, and phone-banking goes to Jill Stein not for 2016 but for 2020 and 2024. After this election cycle it's pretty safe to say that the Democratic party is morally bankrupt and I'm more interested in building new than working from within. Frankly, I dislike fighting internal enemies so working to build the Green party has a lot of allure.



Greta75 -> RE: Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (7/29/2016 11:48:48 PM)

FR

So if ya wanna encourage people to vote 3rd party, ya gotta paste this in twitter and facebook and basically get it viral.

So many Americans are so reluctant to do so, go for a third party I mean. And feel they gotta vote for the better of the worst.

I am totally for simply voting the candidate you like the most. To build third party, they need support, and they need to see increasing support.




Musicmystery -> RE: Why Trump won't win when you vote 3rd party (won't affect the outcome significantly) (8/1/2016 8:59:11 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffBC

~fast reply~

Heh, I already lost this election so I'm not very interested in who wins. My vote, dollars, and phone-banking goes to Jill Stein not for 2016 but for 2020 and 2024. After this election cycle it's pretty safe to say that the Democratic party is morally bankrupt and I'm more interested in building new than working from within. Frankly, I dislike fighting internal enemies so working to build the Green party has a lot of allure.

Exactly.



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