RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (Full Version)

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Kirata -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/3/2016 10:19:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SecondBestBoy

Yes, the Syrian Civil War was precipitated by manmade global warming. Study published last year.

Far more than just the war in Syria.

K.







longwayhome -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate... (10/4/2016 12:16:19 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44

[Edited]

.....and I don't recall in one instance saying anything about "conspiracy" or "bad science" when it comes to climate change and those who hold to different views.....



Apologies.

On reviewing the previous posts the tone of my response had much more to do with how other posters had responded to me, not your far more measured responses.

I have no doubt about the sincerity of your views. They are just not my views.




Real0ne -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/4/2016 12:30:24 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SecondBestBoy

"How about we dial back that big glowing orb in the sky? For some reason, I think that might have something to do with it. I mean, I know when I walk outside and it's up there in the sky, I can feel heat that sure seems to be coming from it. "

Hyuk, hyuk, hyuk. Waal golly jeepers, Mr. Scurri. Ya may hev jess thot of somefin' nun of dem daar THOUSANDS OF Pee-Hach-Dee scientists evar thot of! Look at the sonn!! Magine that. Woweee! Yooze practickally smarter than all a them thar eggheads, ain't ya?

No, Mr. Einstein in His Own Mind, you're not. Scientists have been looking at solar insolation levels for years. And as it turns out, during the past 35 years in which it's been warming faster than at any point in human history, solar output has been DECREASING:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?f=solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming

Maybe don't quit your day job... just yet. Leave the science-ing to the scientists, and they'll leave the plumbing (or ditch digging, insurance selling, or whatever it is you get paid for) to you. Sound like a plan?



Aside from the fact that you have just proven yourself to be a complete horses ass, how about you spell out where you see the direct correlation between Co2 and dt?

Oh? u dun no how? zo u zee da yeller wyne goze yup da bu wyne haz ta goez yup 2 and zen da yeller wyne goez dyn zee bu wyne az ta goez dyn. capisce?


[img]http://i123.photobucket.com/albums/o296/nine_one_one/global%20warming/co.png[/img]



there is no fucking correlation between co2 and temeralture. If anything the average temp runs lower with increased co2.


Of course it never occured to you that the 79% of scientists that agree just happen to be receiving gubblement grants.









crazyml -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/4/2016 12:32:24 AM)

Shush! There are plenty of grown-ups looking at this topic. You should be focusing on the whole "martians have taken over the whitehouse" thing




Real0ne -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/4/2016 12:38:52 AM)

well grown up, in your own mind, help the poo boy out and show us the correlation then or you just out here to give it 'lip service'. [8|]


well?


Jeopardy Thinking Music









SecondBestBoy -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/4/2016 12:01:12 PM)

Thanks for that ridiculously meaningless cartoon plot, RealOne. That post in fact is the CLASSIC denialist misinformation trope, and it's in keeping with the dishonest angle taken by the very post that started this thread. So, it's topical - in its own pathologically lying sort of way.

Over millions of years, MANY things affect climate (temperature), and most of them ARE natural forces. Chief among these drivers are something called Milankovitch cycles. These are subtle changes in the precessional and other characteristics of the earth's orbit and transit around the sun. Wobbles and gradual changes in the eccentricity, etcetra.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Milankovitch cycles - a series of natural climate forcings, the very FASTEST of which operates on time scales of tens of thouands of years - in fact trigger the ice ages and our exit from them. The earth's wobble changes, causing more or less sunlight to hit the northern hemisphere in a given year, which causes some ice to melt, which releases CO2 which warms the earth, which then melts more ice, which then feeds the warming in a positive feedback effect. Then when the Milankovitch cycle reverses polarity, the inverse happens and we very slowly plunge into another ice age again. That's some of what you're seeing on that denialist red herring visual aid there.

But there are other things happening over those large time spans too. Huge vegetation changes, which soak up large amounts of CO2. Time periods in which the sun did indeed change its average output over long periods of time. None of those things are happening today.

For these and other reasons, CO2 and temperature don't correlate very well over huge epochs. But on the short time scale of a hundred or two hundred years, all of those geologically "slow" forces and processes are essentially static. And DURING that stable period - in which we have formed civilization on the current shorelines, involving massive infrastructure and billions of people, the relationship of CO2 to temperature has been definitively "seen" (to answer your disingenuous question):

http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-CO2-Temperature-correlation-over-the-20th-Century.html


"how about you spell out where you see the direct correlation between Co2 and dt? "

*I* don't need to "spell out" this phenomenon that's been shown by thousands of peer reviewed science papers, to the extent that the National Academy of Science and every other similar body in the world is convinced. It's not *my* conclusion, but theirs.




popeye1250 -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/4/2016 12:17:45 PM)

When the Warmers, Birthers, Truthers and used car salesmen have to "sell" you on their "product" you know there's something rotten in Denmark.




SecondBestBoy -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/4/2016 1:14:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

When the Warmers, Birthers, Truthers and used car salesmen have to "sell" you on their "product" you know there's something rotten in Denmark.


I guess when you're unequipped to comprehend anything at higher than a fourth grade level, it sounds like a "sales pitch" to you.

What a sad state of science literacy we have in this country.




crazyml -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/5/2016 12:39:56 AM)

Shush! Again you drooling half-witted stain




Awareness -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/5/2016 11:03:53 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SecondBestBoy
Yes, the Syrian Civil War was precipitated by manmade global warming. Study published last year.
So that means the Chinese are responsible for the war in Syria? Amazing.




Real0ne -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/5/2016 6:43:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SecondBestBoy

"how about you spell out where you see the direct correlation between Co2 and dt? "

*I* don't need to "spell out" this phenomenon that's been shown by thousands of peer reviewed science papers, to the extent that the National Academy of Science and every other similar body in the world is convinced. It's not *my* conclusion, but theirs.



Oh they are are they? Well Im not convinced, so spell it out. Oh and btw, How many degrees of freedom in this system again?




mnottertail -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/5/2016 7:06:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne


quote:

ORIGINAL: SecondBestBoy

"how about you spell out where you see the direct correlation between Co2 and dt? "

*I* don't need to "spell out" this phenomenon that's been shown by thousands of peer reviewed science papers, to the extent that the National Academy of Science and every other similar body in the world is convinced. It's not *my* conclusion, but theirs.



Oh they are are they? Well Im not convinced, so spell it out. Oh and btw, How many degrees of freedom in this system again?


360 according to Egyptians, but you babble on about it by the minute and second.




Nnanji -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/8/2016 8:30:58 AM)



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/10/07/experts-said-arctic-sea-ice-would-melt-entirely-by-september-201/


Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 - they were wrong




heavyblinker -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate... (10/8/2016 11:14:00 AM)

When I start seeing articles like this in National Geographic or Popular Mechanics instead of Fox News and blogs with populist-flavored names like 'notrickszone' and 'wattsupwiththat?' we can talk.

Until then, you should just stop trying because no one who isn't already on board will be convinced by this sort of thing.




WickedsDesire -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate... (10/8/2016 12:02:11 PM)

I have fuking spoken....If I have to go through almost all of you one at a time I will do so or I may just drink a bottle of wine




heavyblinker -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate... (10/8/2016 12:05:32 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: WickedsDesire

I have fuking spoken....If I have to go through almost all of you one at a time I will do so or I may just drink a bottle of wine


I'm pretty sure you'll have completely forgotten about whatever it is you're going on about by the end of your 'bottle of wine'.

And by bottle of wine I'm going to assume you mean crack laced with PCP, as-yet-unnamed Chinese designer drugs and lots of purple Kryptonite.




Nnanji -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate... (10/8/2016 2:53:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

When I start seeing articles like this in National Geographic or Popular Mechanics instead of Fox News and blogs with populist-flavored names like 'notrickszone' and 'wattsupwiththat?' we can talk.

Until then, you should just stop trying because no one who isn't already on board will be convinced by this sort of thing.

That has been my point all along. Show me a climate model that actually works, can be replicated and can show all of its input before you start transferring trillions of dollars of wealth around. I'm happy with that. Unfortunately it's a leftist political thing that's going to be funded for the kool aid drinkers by the politicians who want to keep office and control the money supply.




mnottertail -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate... (10/8/2016 3:55:56 PM)

Thing is, forget the climate model, and the transfer of trillions of wealth around, that has been done to citizens since long before this.

If you take a shit, you wipe your ass, if you shit on the street, clean it up. If that transfers trillions of dollars of wealth from those who poison the water, earth, and air.....that goes in the too fucking bad column on the real people don't give the glimmer of a good goddamn fuck card.

How many peer-reviewed papers for, how many peer-reviewed papers against?




PeonForHer -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate... (10/8/2016 4:05:24 PM)

Yep, yep, yep ... It's just those plucky oil billionaires, plus whatever scientists they can afford to hire, against the massive power and influence of the vast bulk of rich, pampered academic climate scientists, with their legendarily huge wealth and their grip on the testicles of the world's leaders.

What chance have those intrepid anti AGW mavericks got? When will people learn to 'follow the money' and realise that the impoverished, downtrodden, always-ignored oil billionaires are the brave Heroes of Truth, here?




SecondBestBoy -> RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 170 (10/9/2016 1:56:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne


quote:

ORIGINAL: SecondBestBoy

"how about you spell out where you see the direct correlation between Co2 and dt? "

*I* don't need to "spell out" this phenomenon that's been shown by thousands of peer reviewed science papers, to the extent that the National Academy of Science and every other similar body in the world is convinced. It's not *my* conclusion, but theirs.



Oh they are are they? Well Im not convinced, so spell it out. Oh and btw, How many degrees of freedom in this system again?



I did spell it out, in the link directly above that comment, you intentionally dense person. Here it is again:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-CO2-Temperature-correlation-over-the-20th-Century.html

Degrees of freedom is N-2 in a typical Pearson correlation. Since that looks like yearly data, that means about 110. The probability of that correlation happening by chance would be infinitesimally small. Were you hoping to make a cogent point there? You failed.




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