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AtUrCervix -> RE: Republicans worry about Trump's rolling disaster (2018 is coming) (3/21/2017 3:49:47 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Musicmystery
Until Reagan, we were the world's largest creditor nation.
Dude...as a Republican...I'm an enigma. I've said (since 1983) that Reagan is (was) the biggest con/shell game of our lifetime. You'll get no argument from me.
Eight years of trickle down magical government is the problem mentality later, we were the world's largest debtor nation.
(See above...I did the math then...history proves it....yet...possibly you and I are the only believers...pretty tough NOT to have an AMAZING decade when you never have to pay your credit card bill and every time you hit your max...they send you 12 more cards with triple the available/previous credit).
You know well that debt as a standing number is irrelevant compared to debt as a percentage of GDP. So the 110 years thing is specious. Additionally, at times debt is necessary -- WWII, for instance.
Good reference MM (excellent actually...I knew you did your homework) yet, the argument that "debt doesn't matter" falls on deaf ears when...it simply adds up. I've never been a "monthly payment" kind of guy. What matters to me is...how much is it actually going to cost.
At 900 billion national debt (1979+) John Anderson (Independent) lost against Reagan (and Carter....who offered that we wear sweaters....of course...derided) by offering a 50 cent a gallon tax on gasoline (and diesel)....God forbid that fuel rose by 50 cents....which of course, would have paid off our debt no later than 1993. Perot offered a similar solution (when debt was at 5 trillion)....twice (if I recall...it was..."reduce every budget item by 2% and hold that steady until we balance" {with some proviso's}....but..."he can't be elected"....(and....so he wasn't).
Now we owe 20...with escalations that forbid debt reduction. We are now in the debt...death spiral. There was a time...in your lifetime (mine as well) when there was a real shot at zero debt. No longer. I should re-state...it is possible, but today, the pain is no longer nominal.
The pain no longer requires simple solutions such as buying in bulk...planning ahead....driving less....or even...wearing sweaters. Today, the pain mandates not driving at all, having less, dropping down several levels of lifestyle. It's no longer simply changing steak out for hamburger.
It's changing oatmeal out for....not as much oatmeal as before.
See...the problem isn't Trump....it's us. Whether or not anyone believes that Trump is the solution is really immaterial....CLEARLY....with EVERYONE offering rope, a canoe and a ladder....for a very long time...the problem isn't even Clinton....or Bush....
It's us.
We don't (collectively) want a solution....just more free shit.
The solutions have been offered....soooo many times. We didn't want them and now...it's no longer "how much can you afford to pay monthly?"....it's "how much longer can you live with what you have....before you buy a (used) replacement for what you currently have?" and....the evidence abounds.
And, programs were created to solve problems. "We're just not gonna pay for the solutions anymore" just means we get the problems back.
MM....we've never been willing to pay for solutions. See above. THAT's the problem. We don't want solutions....we want our shit...and we want it today.
Additionally (it's a couple years back, but I'm not gonna Google all night just to make this point -- you'll get it): "The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269.6 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP) [a] as of Q1 2014."
Great stuff...and while (to use your example) our stuff is worth more....how many people do you know that have these fantastic homes....driving by them, you see the beautiful yard, the BMW....and yet...the newspaper boy knows the truth....they look great from the outside....but one look in to the living room window discovers the obvious: The only furniture they have is....right there...in the living room window for all to see....and nowhere else (ergo....monthly payment vs. total cost argument).
We've all seen the Yahoo and other news posts about what the average person actually has in the bank (do keep in mind....that is "average"...ergo, it includes myriad others who are quite wealthy, with substantial savings, that sway the data)....the "average" couple (married with children) is debt heavy (and over the last 7+ years...absolutely upside down...in real and actual dollars)....today....has LESS than 45 days costs in the bank.
Now....let's add a bit more (startling) facts to that: They have 45 days worth of PAYMENTS for their debt....in the bank.
Which then clarifies for anyone who knows how a calculator works that....indeed....debt absolutely matters.
(Without debate....WW2 or any other period chosen....not even remotely....withstanding).
Indeed....the SMART thing for every ONE of these asset rich, cash poor saps to do....so long as the game of musical chairs would continue...would be....sell your fabulous McMansion (or whatever else you may have of value might be), get the fuck out of debt, step down about 4 or 5 levels of "Look at MEEEEE" and say...."ya know....that little 3 bedroom rambler looks kind of nice"....("But Daddy....what will my friends say?????")...but...you know they won't...I know they won't and....every seller of goods....knows.....they.....won't. No ropes, canoes or helicopters for these people.....no way Jose. (My favorite kind of folks....they eventually turn in to renters....and I'm right there to help).
US GDP is over $17 trillion, closing in on twice that of China (just 10 years ago it was 5 - 7 times), and 1/5 of global GDP (barely 20 years ago it was 1/4 of world GDP), with less than 5% of the population.
While I agree we need to look seriously at our budget -- we're not exactly going broke next week.
And why is that? Because we own the world's currency. That's a bit deeper subject than most can handle so, I won't delve in to it but, suffice it to say, when that ceases to be the truth (and that time is coming sooner than one would wish were true)...our comfortable world will rapidly change...for reasons that are far too complicated to go in to here.
For starters, we could CUT our bloated military budget -- which includes things the military doesn't even want -- instead of dramatically increasing it.
That's well above my pay grade. With ISIS and a billion other issues....I couldn't debate that subject effectively for more than 2 seconds.
Anyone who seriously looks at addressing the national debt -- and you'll see both parties are at fault here (zero debate there...but the parties aren't the real problem) -- MUST, according to any independent analysis, include ALL of the following:
- adjust Medicaid/Medicare
- adjust Social Security
- cut the military budget
- cut spending
- raise taxes
I'm not sure I agree with everything you pose there but...I don't believe, either, that one way is better than another (because someone is going to object/get fucked in the deal/etc.)....but...what you just described is exactly what I've argued for in every election...."let's start paying the bill today".
(And someone is going to object/get fucked in the deal/etc.)
Ayep....da's how dat woiks.
And but for Anderson, Perot or Ron Paul....(since Reagan)....who has stepped up to do exactly that?
Only one person MM....and as I've said multiple times...."it's gonna hurt".
The bill is long overdue.
Today's a GREAT time to make the first payment.
Instead . . . We have people peddling their personal agendas, and in the case of the oligarchy, primarily to enrich themselves.
Hmmmm....and so....after ALLLLL that....you come around to exactly my point: Today is a great time to start paying the bill (regardless of who gets hurt....or....did you want any exceptions...because once we start making any exceptions...the game is over and we're back to...."more free stuff for me".
And so....it's gonna hurt.
(Everyone).
Because we were pussies when it would have meant only skipping desert....twice.
Reagan's own people admitted trickle down was a failure. But there were those who enjoy the benefits of a widening gulf between the top and bottom. That's not good for the economy or the markets long term.
That gulf has widened for millennia. It widens even faster for those that refuse to pay for tomorrow....today. I do quite well today (I hardly live like a King). My bills are paid for a year in advance at minimum and, I have 3 years expenses in the bank, in cash. I don't say that to brag, just that, when I was 20....when my friends said "buying a house is IMPOSSIBLE!" (then 35 grand in Seattle...same house today: $450,000.00)...but...it really wasn't impossible....it was simply....difficult....so....I bought 2....fixed them up, painted them, sold them and bought 4 more...and so on.
I didn't get laid as often as my buddies in my 20's, my cars were pieces of shit then...today, they're just very comfortable 12 year old Chevy's...paint's good, stereo works fine, seats feel good....but all my buddies drive Lexus's, live in 4,000 sf homes (mine is 3,500 sf....and I own 4 others, paid for, that pay all my bills...plus I still work every day....because I love my job)....and they'll be out of debt....sometime around...well....ehhh....who am I kidding....never.
And for the record...those are just my residential RE assets....something anyone could have done (and even something anyone my age could even do today). I have other RE assets but these (above) were discussed solely to emphasize....I didn't do anything spectacular by any measure (in fact...it was ridiculously easy).
Simply put, the income "gulf" will widen for every person who wants today, what they choose to pay for tomorrow.
There's an excellent book out....I think it was written in the late 80's...."The Million Dollar Pizza"....it's all about how....that pizza "today" (25 bucks or so....costs about 2 bucks to make)...costs millions over just a short 30 year span. I still go out for pizza. But I didn't. For a long time.I didn't miss it, I had some killer times in my 20's (some I moderately regret :) Some....I wish I was young enough to do again another 40 times! :) )
Trump/Ryan certainly don't have a better answer -- except for them.
I think that's true for most people. How many times have we all heard (or said) "if I ran my household like the government does...I'd be BROKE!!!"
Guess what? Private debt is 20+% HIGHER than public debt and.....most individual private citizens....indeed....ARE broke (they were right).
Who will pay for the resulting mess? You and I. And a lot more people who can't afford to pay (for something they didn't cause).
And therein lies the rub; They did cause it....by not stepping up to the plate when a rope, canoe and even helicopter was offered.
And without stepping up to the plate today....they will perpetuate it.
Me...it literally makes zero difference to me.
How I see things? Who gives a shit what I think....but...as long as someone's asking....I'd like to start paying the bill today and.....yes....it's gonna hurt.
A LOT.
A lot more than 40 years ago....a lot LESS than 40 years from today.
Trump just offered a rope. I think we should all grab it.
We all said no (collectively) to a canoe (John Anderson) and a helicopter (Perot).
It's time to say yes.
(And....just for the record....I think it'd be awesome if most folks would do as I've described above....ultimately putting people like me out of work. But....that's never gonna happen. Ever).
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