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happypervert -> RE: The end of Oil, LINK TV (2/11/2007 9:16:32 AM)
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quote:
Wasn't it the 1950's when we were taught in school that we only had 10 years of oil left?
Probably get such predictions every decade; problem is all those predictions are based on current reserves and never take into account those that are undiscovered.
Predictions of scarcity in the future also fail to account for the forces of economics. If petroleum becomes scarce the price goes up and that makes research into alternative energy sources worth while or spurs exploration in areas where it is too expensive now.
Back in the late 70s Stanford professor Paul Ehrlich made Malthusian predictions of resource shortages caused by population; this was while the energy crisis was fresh in our minds and there had been price spikes in some metals such as copper. Economist Julian Simon believed those predictions were false and alarmist, so bet Ehrlich that 5 metals would all be less expensive in 10 years; Simon won the bet.
I'll check this show out, but if it turns into something whiney and alarmist I'll dismiss it as ill informed and flip it right off.
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