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RE: Another church shooting - 8/4/2008 10:43:43 PM   
igor2003


Posts: 1718
Joined: 1/1/2004
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quote:

12,240 murders occured in 1967, the year I was born. The population was 197,457,000. For a murder rate of 0.06 per 1000.

20,710 murders occured in 1974. The population was 211,392,000. For a murder rate of 0.09 per 1000.

17,034 murders occured in 2006, latest year I could find numbers for. The population was 299,398,484. For a murder rate of 0.05 per 1000.

The "skyrocketing" violent crime rate is an oft told lie but it remains a lie.



You only show statistics for murder (which includes murders with guns, knives, baseball bats, hit and run, poisen, smothering, choking, drowning, hanging, and the famous Snydely Whplash method of either tying the damsel to the railroad tracks to be run over by a train or tying the damsel to a log and sending her through the sawmill).  The statistics you show for these are down, true.  But you have not shown that ALL violent crime is down which is what you were trying to demonstrate.  Where are your statistics for ATTEMPTED murder?  Rape:?  Assault and battery?   Armed robbery, and other violent crimes?  Honestly, for all I know these may be down as well, but they do need to be included in your statistics for your claim to hold water.  And if these other areas ARE down as well, what do attribute this to?  Are people just being nicer now?

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 261
RE: Another church shooting - 8/4/2008 10:59:24 PM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: igor2003
And if these other areas ARE down as well, what do attribute this to?  Are people just being nicer now?


Crime is generally down due to ... demographics.  There are some notable exceptions, and there is a theory about increasing crime rates in some areas due to Section 8 (?) housing being phased out.

Personally, I'm not sure what DomKen is trying to prove with his numbers, so I'm not that interested in getting into a debate with him about them.

I don't care if crime is "generally" down or not.  I don't care if the number of murders or attempted murders are down or not.  As far as I am concerned when it comes to me carrying, is that if it happens to me, or those around me, that I am prepared.  I think the right to self-defense, and the right to assist others is not a right I want to give up to "lies, damn lies, and statistics".

Firm


_____________________________

Some people are just idiots.

(in reply to igor2003)
Profile   Post #: 262
RE: Another church shooting - 8/4/2008 11:22:30 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: igor2003

quote:

12,240 murders occured in 1967, the year I was born. The population was 197,457,000. For a murder rate of 0.06 per 1000.

20,710 murders occured in 1974. The population was 211,392,000. For a murder rate of 0.09 per 1000.

17,034 murders occured in 2006, latest year I could find numbers for. The population was 299,398,484. For a murder rate of 0.05 per 1000.

The "skyrocketing" violent crime rate is an oft told lie but it remains a lie.



You only show statistics for murder (which includes murders with guns, knives, baseball bats, hit and run, poisen, smothering, choking, drowning, hanging, and the famous Snydely Whplash method of either tying the damsel to the railroad tracks to be run over by a train or tying the damsel to a log and sending her through the sawmill).  The statistics you show for these are down, true.  But you have not shown that ALL violent crime is down which is what you were trying to demonstrate.  Where are your statistics for ATTEMPTED murder?  Rape:?  Assault and battery?   Armed robbery, and other violent crimes?  Honestly, for all I know these may be down as well, but they do need to be included in your statistics for your claim to hold water.  And if these other areas ARE down as well, what do attribute this to?  Are people just being nicer now?

I forgot to include the link which will indeed show that all crime rates are down.
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

When ever the crime rate goes down the single best explanation is that there are fewer males between the ages of 15 and 30. As that cohort's size fluctuates so does the crime rate for the simple reason that they commit most of the crimes and when there are fewer of them there are simply fewer crimes. Any time anyone claims any other reason for a change in crime rate go check whioch way that cohort is trending.

My point was to counter the good old days claims that it was safer back 30 or 40 years ago.

(in reply to igor2003)
Profile   Post #: 263
RE: Another church shooting - 8/5/2008 5:47:18 AM   
Archer


Posts: 3207
Joined: 3/11/2005
Status: offline
DomKEn taking a look at a list of mass murders, the majority of them seem to occure where smaller groups <20 are gathered.
Families (often the murderer's own) (next most often a neighbor's family)
Former Employers (going postal)
Top the list of starting points for mass murders, so while the sensational large killings are often reported on in the media (because they are rare and people are fearfull that they could get caught up in one) they get alot of press.
Often reported on far less and forgotten sooner are the ones where the murderer starts the thing off killing his own family then proceeds on the spree to "get even" with everyone until cornered and then suicide.
A little more reported on are the "disgruntled employee"
These make up by far the majority of the "mass murders" that I find records for.
So I dispute your finding that the majority start in single crowd areas, and contend they start more often in places where the crowds are smaller and seperated, but only by a small distance.



(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 264
RE: Another church shooting - 8/5/2008 7:03:21 AM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline
Archer, I'm not digging through that list of horrors again. Simply put I stopped long before I had finished going through the list. Your contention that the majority of mass murderer began by killing a couple of people and then went on to the big killing somewhere else wasn't common. IIRC there were a few cases of that, Whitman and Weisse, come to mind but I already produced that list of major attacks where the attackers simply started in a crowd which is after all how someone simply out to kill as many people as possible would do it.

(in reply to Archer)
Profile   Post #: 265
RE: Another church shooting - 8/5/2008 10:03:32 AM   
Archer


Posts: 3207
Joined: 3/11/2005
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Perhaps the definition of mass murder is at odds here as well
Anything more than 3 hits in my book, and seems to match up with the definition I read most often.
So Wife and 3 kids hits on my mass murder scales and may not on yours.
Also spree killings such as man kills wife and in laws then goes to old job kills ex boss and a couple employees.
I count those spree killings as single mass murders rather than multiple homocides.

VT started with a single murder in a dorm room and then moved to classrooms.
Columbine started on that hill and then moved inside the school halls and classrooms
Red Lake High School started with the murder of the kid's grandfather and grandfather's girlfreind, at home and then moved to the school.



(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 266
RE: Another church shooting - 8/5/2008 10:50:45 AM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Archer

Perhaps the definition of mass murder is at odds here as well
Anything more than 3 hits in my book, and seems to match up with the definition I read most often.
So Wife and 3 kids hits on my mass murder scales and may not on yours.
Also spree killings such as man kills wife and in laws then goes to old job kills ex boss and a couple employees.
I count those spree killings as single mass murders rather than multiple homocides.

VT started with a single murder in a dorm room and then moved to classrooms.
Columbine started on that hill and then moved inside the school halls and classrooms
Red Lake High School started with the murder of the kid's grandfather and grandfather's girlfreind, at home and then moved to the school.

All those attacks I listed started in large groups of people. Some continued elsewhere but the initial attack was in a crowd.

Sure there are attacks that start by the killer taking out everyone in his home but how would concealed carry help stop those? If a guy is going to shoothis wife etc. in their home he would likely know if she was packing and simply shoot her in the back or the like if she was armed. We're back to the reasonably rare attacks where the killer moves from place to place with the CCP holder waiting in ambush.

(in reply to Archer)
Profile   Post #: 267
RE: Another church shooting - 8/5/2008 11:32:29 AM   
Archer


Posts: 3207
Joined: 3/11/2005
Status: offline
The continued elsewhere is what makes the difference DomKen
Cant stop the guy from killing his dad, but when he shows up at the office to finish off the list of folks who "ruined his life" The CCP holder at the office might be able to save himself and others.
And although I'm not all the way in the other guy's camp, he had a real point fighting off a gun weilding criminal with bare hands is not the most effective form of defense. (exceptions noted as just that exceptions)

I'm not talking about ending all such attacks I'm alking about the potential for lowering the numbers of deaths per incident.
I'm talking about having the option and the ability to defend myself should it become nesesary.

All the fears that it turns folks into a wildwest dangerous situation were voiced when CCP laws were expanding.
Guess what the results are in and the feared wild west didn't happen in any significant numbers, cops vs CCP holder shootings also didn't happen in any significant number. THEY JUST DIDN'T happen.
99.96% of CCP holders years after the passage of the laws have remained upstanding citizens. cases of CCP revocation for any reason at all have been in the 0.2% range and only about 0.04% have been revoked for criminal acts involviong a gun.



(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 268
RE: Another church shooting - 8/5/2008 5:44:32 PM   
louisfceline


Posts: 13
Joined: 3/27/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

I'm trying to respond to this with out drawing down Mod XI's wrath.
quote:

ORIGINAL: louisfceline
If you are content to fight killers without killing I say have at it. But I think we've seen enough examples of how high ideals won't stand up to a loaded weapon. If you think it will work for you, go for it. I prefer to give myself a fighting chance. I'm sorry if that offends anyone as you insist it does but I have more confidence in fighting fire with fire.

Read a news account of the event this thread is about please.

quote:

I had no intention of insulting anyone over the victims of 911. In one respect you are correct in that they had no idea of what was happening. But I doubt you'd find a group flying on a plane today who would allow similar circumstances to be executed without challanging them ever again. In fact, the last plane didn't. That is the point I was making. Again, I'm sorry it offends you. We learned a lesson that day. I say we don't forget it.

Yes, things changed that day. That doesn't change the fact that you wrote this:
quote:

This is the state of thinking that left plane loads of people paralized with fear on 911. We sat there and waited for someone to establish authority.


quote:

Lynching was done to innocent people because of thier race. Suggesting that that is what I had in mind is a stretch and it has nothing to do with the point I was making. It also suggests that I too am racist because I don't feel we should tolerate crime. But unlike yourself, I won't bother to getting insulted by it. If you can't tell the difference between dragging a man from his home because of his race vs. dragging a scumbag from under the rock he's hiding from because he just sold your daughter a hot dose of exctasy maybe you do belong on the sidelines.

No. Lynching wasn't always about race and guilty men certainly got lynched. The term likely derives from Charles Lynch who hunted and punished royalists during the Revolutionary War.

No matter. Any place where trees start bearing that strange fruit again best be careful starting their cars.

quote:

Foolish machismo? I'll bet the those that died at Brown's Chicken in Palatine could have used some of that foolish machismo. I'll bet the people in more than one school shooting could have used some foolish machismo. The members of that church were lucky but anyone who wants to make it a general practice to fight bullets with fists will inevitably teach the rest of us how ineffective it is. There's a saying about bringing a knife to a gunfight for a reason.

Anyone who thinks a gun makes you brave or who thinks taking successful action while unarmed is luck is a fool.

quote:

Are you accusing me of being afraid because you think I it will shake my confidence or insult me? In fact, I'm not afraid. I prepare for the worst knowing it could become reality. Back in the 90's we saw riots in LA. The shop owners who were armed saved their buisnesses.Those that were armed protected what was theirs. Those that were unarmed got the Reginald Denny treatment. They were physically beaten by those that took advantage of the crisis. But that wasn't my original point. In fact the point I was making with the statement about protecting what is ours had more to do with our willingness to meet these things head on and not wait for someone else to do it for us. If you choose not to have a gun that's your business. I have a right to own one and I excersise that right without appology. I would never make the claim that every American should have a gun. If you are not comfortable with one, I don't suggest having one. But some of us are comfortable with owning them. And I feel I should be able to protect myself with it if the situation arises. If you're content to talk your way out of things, you may have a better command of the language than I do. I prefer using the language these scumbags understand.

Anything I write here is likely to get me in trouble with the wonderful Mod XI so just assume my contempt and scorn.

quote:

The good old days never existed? Did we have sniper shootings in the "good old days"? Did we have mass school shootings in the "good old days"?

Uhh... Yes!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Whitman#Tower_shootings

One of the worst ever and before you or I were born.
quote:

 Did our schools have metal detectors? We may have had crime but I think you'd find less of those murders targeting people the criminals didn't even know. Maybe you did in your neighborhood but I didn't. In my neighborhood that didn't happen and no one was hung from a tree. If you want to believe that the visciousness of today's crimes hasn't increased since "the good old days" you can continue to deny it. But putting our heads in the sand is exactly what I believe makes these problems worse.

12,240 murders occured in 1967, the year I was born. The population was 197,457,000. For a murder rate of 0.06 per 1000.

20,710 murders occured in 1974. The population was 211,392,000. For a murder rate of 0.09 per 1000.

17,034 murders occured in 2006, latest year I could find numbers for. The population was 299,398,484. For a murder rate of 0.05 per 1000.

The "skyrocketing" violent crime rate is an oft told lie but it remains a lie.



If you're having a hard time responding without drawing the moderators wrath, I don't suppose you are used to hearing opposing view points. Yet you sound like many of the people that claim to be open minded. I don't need to harbor "content and scorn" over a different opinion. I can manage.

As for the comments about 911, you're right I did write that. Unfortunately what I wrote was true. But I think you're getting off topic and ignoring my point so we'll skip that.

You seem to be an expert on lynching. When the term is used, its most often used to describe a racial killing. But since you've opened things up to other possibilities such as guilty murderers being dragged from their homes for some vigilante justice I'll say that it may bother you but it won't bother me. In fact, it might highlight the fact that the public has had enough of the court system and their inability or unwillingness to deal with crime. In the past few years we've seen some great examples of the courts and cities in the US either ignoring crimes (illegal aliens) or ignoring the severity of crimes and handing out a slap on the wrist (child preditors). Yeah, I'm ok with the community taking matters in their own hands because I'm sure NOT ok with what the courts are doing.

As for your stats on crime, I assume you have reviewed the FBI's figures on crime. Since 1960 (as far back as I can find on thier website) the number of crimes in every category have risen. The only explanation you offer is that its keeping pace with population. That's great. Explain that to the families of violent crimes. Tell them not to worry because statistically we aren't any worse. The number of occurances is up and I don't care that population has kept pace. If that helps you ignore it, so be it. But again, all of this has taken us off of the points I was making. I'll leave you to have the last word.


(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 269
RE: Another church shooting - 8/5/2008 7:31:51 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: louisfceline
If you're having a hard time responding without drawing the moderators wrath, I don't suppose you are used to hearing opposing view points. Yet you sound like many of the people that claim to be open minded. I don't need to harbor "content and scorn" over a different opinion. I can manage.

I have an open mind and have no problem when thoughtful intelligent peopel challenge my opinions. Read this thread and you can see that. Now try and figure out why you're not in the category I'm polite with. It might help you.

quote:

As for the comments about 911, you're right I did write that. Unfortunately what I wrote was true. But I think you're getting off topic and ignoring my point so we'll skip that.

You tried to claim those passengers should have somehow known those hijackings were different and acted accordingly. That is of course utter crap and I called you on it. You keep weaseling but that doesn't change anything. You tried to make a point by insulting every passenger who died on those three planes and you weren't even correct in your claim.

quote:

You seem to be an expert on lynching. When the term is used, its most often used to describe a racial killing. But since you've opened things up to other possibilities such as guilty murderers being dragged from their homes for some vigilante justice I'll say that it may bother you but it won't bother me. In fact, it might highlight the fact that the public has had enough of the court system and their inability or unwillingness to deal with crime. In the past few years we've seen some great examples of the courts and cities in the US either ignoring crimes (illegal aliens) or ignoring the severity of crimes and handing out a slap on the wrist (child preditors). Yeah, I'm ok with the community taking matters in their own hands because I'm sure NOT ok with what the courts are doing.

I want you to look into the Jeanine Nicarico case and then try and tell me lynching the "guilty" is ok.

quote:

As for your stats on crime, I assume you have reviewed the FBI's figures on crime. Since 1960 (as far back as I can find on thier website) the number of crimes in every category have risen. The only explanation you offer is that its keeping pace with population. That's great. Explain that to the families of violent crimes. Tell them not to worry because statistically we aren't any worse. The number of occurances is up and I don't care that population has kept pace. If that helps you ignore it, so be it. But again, all of this has taken us off of the points I was making. I'll leave you to have the last word.

The US population in 1960 was 179 million, roughly. Today the population is 304 million, again roughly. Of course there is more crimes being committed. The population has increased by almost 70%. Inevitably there will be more of everything when the p[opulation increases that much.

However when looking at the actual rates, IOW how likely any single person is to be the victim of a crime, the rates are roughly where they were in 1960 for violent crimes, excluding rape which was likely a reporting issue.

The real peak in crime rates in the last 48 years was 1980 which was unsurprisingly the year the first baby boom echo cohort was in the prime crime commiting years. We're well off those rates and based on the present populations demographics it seems unlikely we'll ever see such a large proportion of the population in that age bracket again.

(in reply to louisfceline)
Profile   Post #: 270
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