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FirmhandKY -> RE: What "Change"? (Not an Obama bashing thread) (4/5/2009 8:36:50 AM)
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Great post NG.
quote:
ORIGINAL: NorthernGent
quote:
ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY
Are you saying that Obama's "new diplomacy" is pretty much no better than the old diplomacy, as far as results go?
Much better and here's why......
The US government, and the British government for that matter, came out of that summit with pretty much as much as they could have hoped for. He's a far more shrewd operator than George Bush. He knows what he's got to do to get what he wants - for instance, let Sarkozy have his moment in the sun with the photo shoots and the dramatics......stroke his ego and you'll get what you want.
Forget the 'fiscal stimulus' objective, which was always a red-herring (no decent negotiator will lay their cards on the table from the off).
What has he achieved.?....with the help of his allies....
a) He has increased the standing of the United States. Rightly or wrongly, style or substance, people are impressed. He's laying the foundations for future gains; when he has people on board then I'm sure the United States government will be less flexible in their negotiations.
b) He has already moved the German and French governments from their position (hitherto solid position) on Afghanistan. The first steps are always the hardest.
c) He has reinforced the British government's support for the United States position. There is no reason why we should side with the US or the continental Europeans (we're different to both, and have no particular loyalty to either), but the US needs an ally in Europe; particularly as the French and German governments are forging an alliance based on shared values.
d) He has helped stave off the protectionism proposed by France and other representatives (which was the key British concern, by the way).
You may not like this, Firm, but political commentators (and I'm talking of serious political commentators who know their stuff), certainly in this country, are mightily impressed not just with Obama but the with the way the Americans pitched it.
You'd have to be extremely naive to think Obama can stroll into a world summit and take everything while giving nothing back, and you know how it is - you have to lay the foundations for future gains.
I do not discount that your point of view may well be valid. You support the view that it is still too early as well, as some of the other posters have?
I can't say that isn't a valid position. From my point of view, looking at structural issues of diplomacy, I'm just not sure I agree with you yet. Time will tell.
Part of the reason that I don't see the change in the same way is that (as I've stated before), I'm more of the realist school of international politics. In that world view, the only two ways that one nation is able to influence another nation is through either bribery or force. Every international agreement or event can ultimately be seen as coming from one of those two methods.
This is because one nation generally cannot change another nation's course because the second nation's national interest do not change, unless the financial benefit offered is sufficient to overcome objections, or unless the calculations of security overcome those objections.
Of course, the biggest issue with "the realist" school of thought is that nations are seen as "rational actors", and that doesn't always have to be the case. It assumes that people share a rational idea about what a "national interest" is. Usually, the biggest problem is when a strong ideology or belief system fundamentally changes the political elites definition of a national interest, so that other political elites miss the change in focus and goals.
But ... I don't see a real change in focus - big picture - of the US right now.
Wasn't/isn't the goal still security from terrorism? Wasn't/isn't the methods the use of force and bribery? Wasn't/isn't using Nato forces in Afghanistan part of the desired US outcome? Didn't Bush get some support? Has Obama really gotten any kind of major increase in that support?
Firm
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