RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 1:59:44 PM

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quote:

Merc, I am going to try to call you on this because, as I've said before, this is not a thread about policies.

Well Hell Spinner, if you were focused on politics in your OP you would have posted numbers that weren't represented as misleading from the very source that originated them. The CNN polling numbers were nothing but biased policy from a media source. However few, if any, had the cognitive skills to understand that and instead gave a "'ya SEE!" based upon the headline.

Similar to the "you're a liar"; not necessarily true, but if it caused people to appreciate that, at minimum, the representation made by the President was misleading it served a purpose, just like the headline.

A policy of telling half truths IS politics.

(in reply to SpinnerofTales)

RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 2:16:01 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

A policy of telling half truths IS politics.

Of course a policy of telling half truths IS politics. Shall we now move on to subjects like putting on socks and spelling cat?

The point I was trying to make is that Obama's speech making ability is impressive and a strong political asset. Backing that up is a poll of people who heard his speech. Among those who didn't hear his speech, I doubt very much if what he said made much of a difference.

I stand by what I said. 14% more of those who heard his speech approved of the message he was trying to sell than approved of it before his speech. Especially in these days of total polarization where the true "deciders" in any election are the thin percentage without an etched-in-stone political loyalty, that ability to sway with words is a powerful tool and is just one of the things that I feel make counting Obama out in the next election a very serious tactical error on the part of any opponent.

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 2:36:09 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SpinnerofTales

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth
A policy of telling half truths IS politics.

Of course a policy of telling half truths IS politics. Shall we now move on to subjects like putting on socks and spelling cat?

The point I was trying to make is that Obama's speech making ability is impressive and a strong political asset. Backing that up is a poll of people who heard his speech. Among those who didn't hear his speech, I doubt very much if what he said made much of a difference.

I stand by what I said. 14% more of those who heard his speech approved of the message he was trying to sell than approved of it before his speech. Especially in these days of total polarization where the true "deciders" in any election are the thin percentage without an etched-in-stone political loyalty, that ability to sway with words is a powerful tool and is just one of the things that I feel make counting Obama out in the next election a very serious tactical error on the part of any opponent.

Sure, let's move on directly...

This representation makes it not only a 'half truth' but meaningless except for the purpose of grasping at any 'positive' straw in lieu of acknowledging pragmatic reality.

IDENTIFYING THOSE POLLED BY CNN
The sample of speech-watchers in this poll was 45 percent Democratic and 18 percent Republican.

Considering the source, the 'jump' may be indicate less support. When a group tilted with 45% Democrats and 18% Republican, provides only a 14% jump it does not reflect approval by acclimation.

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 2:48:37 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

The sample of speech-watchers in this poll was 45 percent Democratic and 18 percent Republican.

Considering the source, the 'jump' may be indicate less support. When a group tilted with 45% Democrats and 18% Republican, provides only a 14% jump it does not reflect approval by acclimation.

The point I'm trying to focus on is the change. Now, even given that the poll was (admittedly by both myself and cnn) democrat heavy, we are still dealing with a total sample of 45% democrats 18% republicans and 37% who were not party identified. If you add that into the mix, you get a 45% democrat 55% non democrat mix. Now we might, if we wished, make the assumption for the sake of arguement (I have no hard proof of this) that the democrats watching had a higher percentage of approval of the health care effort going in than did the 55% of non democrats. This would make the shift of opinon more impressive not less.

Of course, to really detail the effects, one would have to have more of a breakdown. I would love to get my hands on the percentage change in approval among the three groups (democrats, republicans and non-identified). Still, I think that showing a 14% rise in approval on an issue after one speech, even among a far less than perfect sample group, shows enough oratory clout to be worth moment or two of appreciation for the style if not the substance.

And I again remind, this is a posting on the political game, not the policies involved.

(in reply to Mercnbeth)

RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 3:15:48 PM

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quote:

And I again remind, this is a posting on the political game, not the policies involved.

And again I'll respond. The policies invovled, especially in this case IS a "game".

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 4:20:32 PM

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quote:

And again I'll respond. The policies invovled, especially in this case IS a "game".

It's all a game, Merc. In order to get any real, substantive changes, you either have to have a concerted effort spanning decades or rip everything down and start again. I will quote Stephen King. "If you can't afford to go to the movies, go to the zoo. If you can't afford the zoo, go see a politician."

Now...you wanna lighten up a little and join me in handicapping '10 and '12?

< Message edited by SpinnerofTales -- 9/10/2009 4:21:19 PM >

(in reply to Mercnbeth)

RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 5:15:07 PM

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quote:

you wanna lighten up a little and join me in handicapping '10 and '12?

Hell Spinner, I am being "light".

Sure, I'll talk about 2010, but I thought you didn't want to get into policy?

Last night the President painted himself into quite a few corners. Once the "you're a liar!" fanfare dies down, someone will get around to pointing out that there are no enforcement provisions in the existing Bill. What good would the 21 year old minimum drinking age law be if the bartender wasn't allowed to ask for ID? That's unheard of and there is level of enforcement behind the drinking age law that makes that bartender ask at the risk of having the bar closed down. However, under the current Bill there is no similar requirement to prove US citizenship.

Someone, with an agenda, will attempt to add that provision. The choice is then for the President to either back up the representation he made last night or add enforcement. The problem he has with letting the enforcement stand is he will lose a significant block of votes in Congress from those having a goal of undocumented worker inclusion and amnesty. Anyone running against an incumbent in 2010 will have that in their arsenal.

Then there is the matter of administering to the program. From the President's perspective there are "billions" of waste and fraud in the current system run by the government. Where is the pool of efficient bureaucrats he hopes to draw upon to administer in their stead? Is he going to add to the current pool of 31 'Czars' and deal with more potential vetting baggage? I think that will be also be a 2010 campaign issue.

The President must have also forgotten he's not campaigning and actually HAS the power to change the status quo. Why else would he point to the ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as costing as much as the anticipated cost of this program? I see people campaigning in 2010 campaign on the "Stop the wars - fund health-care!" Only at the whim of the current majority in Congress do both wars continue to be funded.

The question about 2012 in contingent upon the President's reaction to 2010. From today's perspective it seems to project eerily similar to the second half of Clinton's first term. I honestly don't know if it would be better or worse for the incumbents if the health care Bill fails. Will Obama also re-invent himself as the 'conservative', business friendly, Clinton persona of his last 6 years, or will he stay focused on rhetoric without substance and pragmatic reality contradicting speeches filled with, our agreed to term concerning undocumented workers, "half truths"? Too far out to project.

I think Obama has a much bigger ego than Clinton with a lot less experience so my opinion is he'll keep giving speeches creating increasingly unrealistic expectations and disappointments. Without some positive result perhaps we'll see an attempted party coup by a certain Lady Secretary seeming to be getting more red-faced frustrated with each passing second that she's forced to stay in the background. Remember the health-care issue was HER baby the last time she was President, whoops I mean 1st Lady.

Besides, the end of the world is scheduled for 2012. Hopefully that won't be the 'best case' scenario. (Pointing to the world ending not Secretary Clinton running against Obama in the primaries.)

(in reply to SpinnerofTales)

RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 6:21:02 PM

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Obama pulled out all the stops last night and promised everything to everybody - only problem is, various Factchecks don't support his soaring rhetoric.

Death panels:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-dQfb8WQvo&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rushlimbaugh.com%2Fhome%2Fdaily%2Fsite_091009%2Fcontent%2F01125110.guest.html&feature=player_embedded

"Undocumented immigrants" and Obamacare:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090910/ap_on_go_co/us_illegal_immigrants_fact_check

Deficits:

http://hotair.com/archives/2009/09/10/ap-fact-checks-obama-speech/

quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

I thought it was a good speech and he covered all the particulars pretty well.
When he said that "illegal aliens ("undocumented immigrants?") won't be covered under this Bill" that certainly made it much more paletable to a lot of voters who are tired of being defrauded by foreign nationals to the tune of hunreds of billions.
I just wish he used the proper term "illegal aliens" instead of the mealy-mouthed "undocumented immigrants."
If the congress will add strict language to the Bill stating what President Obama said then I think the Bill will be supported by the American People.

P.S. if Obama ever tries to have *another* "amnesty" for illegal aliens he's going to run into a shit storm brick wall.
That's the surest way to be a one-term president!

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 6:34:28 PM

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If every voter was like you, Merc, and by that I don't mean conservative/libertarian, I mean educated on the issues and watchful of the folks with their hands on the wheel, I would agree pretty much with your assessment. But let's remember who we're talking about. We are talking about a country who let a guy who spent an entire war in the safety of the domestic national guard convince them that he knew more about military matters than not one but two decorated war heroes. We are talking about a country who decided that the man who was in charge during the worst act of aggression on American soil since Pearl Harbor was the only guy to keep us safe after wards. Let's remember as we handicap, who we're dealing with.

With that in mind:

The first things to consider are:
1) Opinions of how much you like, trust etc. any politician can vary widly from opinions of how much you like, trust, etc any politician in comparison with any other politician.
2) While there is a great disillusionment with the Democrats, it still hasn't made the Republican's a lot more popular. It seems like the bar is going lower on both parties rather than one waxing and the other waning.

Sooo...the way I see it:
2010:

I see the democrats losing some seats in the elections. I don't think they're going to lose the majority but I think they're going say bye bye to the overwhelming, filibuster proof mandate. Not that that's all bad from a game point of view. The democrats have so far taken that mandate and run it the hell into the ground. If a valid complaint against the republicans is that they all sound like they're talking off the same cue card, an equally valid complaint against the democrats is that if you put ten of them in a room you get eleven opinions.

So I figure after 2010 it'll be pretty much back to normal. The Democrats in the majority and the Republicans with a more respectable minority. This takes takes some pressure off the Democrats and puts it on the Republicans. Right now, they can and have been milking the "We have no power in this congress. All we can do is plant our feet and resist these awful ideas" cow on all four tits. With a more normalized split between the parties, they are actually going to have to come up with some ideas. Unfortunately, the last republican to come up with anything new was Ronald Reagan. I didn't agree with him, but he came up with something that at least sounded different. If the Republican's keep up with the same strategy they are playing now, it's going to be easy to paint them as a bunch of whiners saying "If we can't make the rules, we won't play".

So that's the preliminary. Let's go to the main event.

2012:

Obama has three and a half years to position himself and don't think for a moment he isn't already working on it. I also think he knows who he has to win. He can safely disregard most of the country when thinking about the election. The progressives aren't likely to vote for anyone the conservatives are likely to run and the Conservatives wouldn't vote for Obama if Jesus sponsored a fund raising rally for him. Once again, I think it's going to be a fight for that small sliver of undecideds.

I don't think that the illegal alien issue or the deficit are going to be decided. Both are "out of sight out of mind" issues. Assuming he doesn't do anything truly stupid like granting amnesty or allowing the illegals (pardon me, undocumenteds) to suck too much out of any health care reform he manages to pass, I don't think that either one are the campaign killer issues.

What I do think he has to keep an eye on is:

1) The Economy: Right or wrong, because of him or in spite of him, if the economy is doing better, he's going to get a boost. If it's doing worse, he's going to get a bust. Just like in sports, when the team is loosing, you fire the coach.

2) Iraq and Afghanistan: Obama is walking a thin line here. He can't quickly withdraw and end this nonsense for fear of being painted as "soft on terrorism" and "a typical lefty peacenick". On the other hand, the American people are getting pretty sick of both wars. At some point, there is going to come a time when public opinion is just at that point where they are sick enough not to complain when he winds them up but not so sick of it that they blame him for continuing. If he can find some way to claim "victory" in Afghanistan and get the hell out during this time, it will be a big lift for him in '12.

3) Health Care: It doesn't have to be perfect, it doesn't even have to be all that good. If he can get something passed and it doesn't bankrupt the country immediately, he will be able to spin it good faster than the republicans can spin it bad.

As for Hillary, there would have to be a total collapse for her to run. I don't know the number of sitting presidents who haven't won their party primaries for a second run but I don't think it's many. Hillary and Bill are too smart at campaigning to make that mistake unless it looks good that she'll win. Her next run is, for many reasons, going to be her last.

So, barring a) A complete economic meltdown. b) a terrorist attack on US soil (It kept Bush in office, it would throw Obama out) and c) the republicans coming up with an amazing dark horse of the greatest magnitude, he's going to go into '12 with a pretty good chance.

And, as I've said, on that playing field, he's tough to beat.

My current prediction: Obama in '12 by a far slimmer margin than he had in '08. My betting line, though is: Take the republicans and 8 percntage points.

(in reply to Mercnbeth)

RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 6:34:52 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SpinnerofTales

The poll I am referring to is http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/09/obama.speech/

Spinner, you're living up to that nic again. Remember, when you are dealing with a journalistic institution with a shred of interest in maintaining credibility (such as CNN), and the story is about someone they like, you have to read all the way to the end... (Then we have the New York Times and CBS who have no credibility left, and just hope nobody notices.)

However, the audience for the speech appeared to be more Democratic than the U.S. population as a whole, causing the poll organizers to warn the results may favor Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in.

I'm not sure how you missed that wrinkle in your whole premise, since you quoted the paragraph directly above it in post #13.

So 14% of the mostly Democrats who watched the speech, as opposed to some percentage of U.S. citizens in general.... Let's wait for the real numbers, early next week, shall we?

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 6:45:38 PM

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Heretic,

I covered that topic already. Even if the audience were skewed democratic, as I'm sure it was since listening to a speech from an official not of your party choice is now about as popular as leisure suits, it was still a 45/55 non democrat split. Also, the measure wasn't of approval, it was of change from disapproval.

Have things gotten so polarized that it will cause physical damage for conservatives to admit that Obama is good at politics? He came from being a no name senator to defeat a woman who common wisdom was sure to win the Democratic nomination. He defied more common wisdom that no way America elects a black democrat (again the thought was that the first black president would be a republican....many wanted Colin Powell until his credibility was destroyed by the Bush administration) to become the first black president of the United States. I am not asking you to approve of a single one of his policies, but at least give the devil his due and admit that he knows how to work the getting elected game.

As for the rest, I've made my prediction. I've posted the spread, I stand by it.

And by the way, just for giggles, what news sites do YOU think are valid and believable?

< Message edited by SpinnerofTales -- 9/10/2009 6:46:35 PM >

(in reply to TheHeretic)

RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 6:54:44 PM

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20090910/pl_ynews/ynews_pl897
But who's the liar?

As it turns out, the man who called Obama the liar may actually be off base. According to Politifact.com, a nonpartisan site dedicated to fact-checking the claims of "candidates, elected officials, political parties, interest groups, pundits, talk show hosts," Obama wasn't lying when he said the health-care reforms he's proposing would not apply to illegal immigrants. "Obama can make a pretty thorough case that reform doesn't apply to those here illegally. We don't find the public option argument enough to make the case that Obama 'lied.' We rate Wilson's statement False."

The death panel you tube video is vastly different if you take a look at the version that doesnt have anything cut out and put it in context

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJYvaLS-xOw&NR=1

Lucy

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 7:00:03 PM

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This is a good thing? Also, my measure of being good at politics would be find the common ground that people can come together on, and get something good done.

The President is a good speaker, has charisma, and comes across as sincere. Now I am trying to reconcile all of that with his statement on eliminating fraud and waste. To eliminate fraud in Medicare you have to increase funding in the anti-fraud areas, and the last study I saw is that for every dollar we spend, we get a little over $13 back. So that would tell me to increase those anti-fraud areas. The next thing is that Medicare Advantage is on the chopping block possibly, and I am trying to see how that helps, especially when I directly see the advantage of that program with my 81 year old Father and 77 year old Mother, that we take care of in the home.

The poll you link to is slanted, so the numbers posted are also slanted somewhat. Who can say how much or how little? It is kind of like being in a leaky boat, where one side has more holes than the other. People on one side will say it is going down slower or faster, depending on the side you are on. None of those perspectives change the fact that the boat is sinking as the same rate regardless of perspective.

quote:

ORIGINAL: SpinnerofTales

Have things gotten so polarized that it will cause physical damage for conservatives to admit that Obama is good at politics?

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 7:11:16 PM

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quote:

This is a good thing? Also, my measure of being good at politics would be find the common ground that people can come together on, and get something good done. ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf

I can't help it...on some level, I see politics as a game, just like Football. You may have your favorite team but in the end, which team wins doesn't matter much in your life unless you bet on it.

I STILL stand with my prediction. Obama wins in '12. Best bet: The republicans if you can get an 8% spread.

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 7:38:45 PM

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Did no one notice the approval ratings of the branches? the one with judicial, as usual, ahead of the rest, followed quickly by the executive?

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 7:53:31 PM

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Sorry but I think one of the worst things anyone can do, is look at how our government is run, as a game. The only winners in the current game are the politicians, and everyone that buys into it is playing a fool for the crowd.

Want to know what I consider a win? When a problem is actually solved, not when my favorite "team" wins an election.

As far as your predictions, you must not know much about sports and betting, because the injured reserve list has not been published yet. If you look at things historically, the majority party usually suffers more defeats when there is a low approval rating, which means the Dems will likely lose seats in Congress. As far as President Obama, that will depend on what he can deliver or destroy, or it will be determined by who can spin the best tales.

quote:

ORIGINAL: SpinnerofTales

quote:

This is a good thing? Also, my measure of being good at politics would be find the common ground that people can come together on, and get something good done. ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf

I can't help it...on some level, I see politics as a game, just like Football. You may have your favorite team but in the end, which team wins doesn't matter much in your life unless you bet on it.

I STILL stand with my prediction. Obama wins in '12. Best bet: The republicans if you can get an 8% spread.

_____________________________

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 8:28:20 PM

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quote:

Sorry but I think one of the worst things anyone can do, is look at how our government is run, as a game. The only winners in the current game are the politicians, and everyone that buys into it is playing a fool for the crowd.

Want to know what I consider a win? When a problem is actually solved, not when my favorite "team" wins an election.
ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf

Orion,

Amidst all the nonsense, corruption, stupidity, greed, self-interest and systemic failures I see in government, there are two things that stand as explanation of my opinion on politics.

The first was hearing the following two stories on the radio news. The first was that the IRS had taken ownership of a legal brothel in Nevada and, as is it's policy, ran the business hoping to sell it to get back the taxes owed. After six months, the brothel was going out of business and declaring bankruptcy. The second was that NY OTB was facing a 50 million dollar loss for the year. It was then that I realized that our government was the only organzation that could lose money on a whorehouse and a bookie joint.

The second was a study I read, and I wish so incredibly much that I had saved it to cite, followed an entire session of the congress and senate. They tracked which bills voted upon passed and which ones were defeated. In every case, not 50% or 75% or 90% but in every single case, every single bill was passed or defeated in the direction in which the most lobbyist money was spent. Our government isn't for sale. It's sold.

So forgive me if I'm a bit jaded. I still care. I still can get worked up for causes. I even allowed myself to believe that Obama was going to change things. And I will continue to speak out for those causes in which I believe, just as I will continue to hope that someone, who will have to be far wiser than I, can figure out a way to make things better. But until then, I am going to keep on laughing. Because if I didn't, I would cry.

Let the games continue.

< Message edited by SpinnerofTales -- 9/10/2009 8:32:58 PM >

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 8:48:57 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

But who's the liar?

Lots of interesting spin on that question, Lucy. Now the bill du jour might specifically prohibit illegal immigrants from qualifying on paper, but if there is no mechanism of enforcement, no requirement to check, if that checking mechanism was deliberately left out, then what we have is a damn lie. Some might even call it a deliberate "fuck you," of a lie to the American people.

Sorta like passing a law that prohibits underage drinking, and putting in a clause that prohibits bartenders from checking ID, or asking about age, or exercising an experienced eye. Is it a lie to say underage people cannot drink, under such circumstances?

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 9:00:41 PM

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I never agreed with illegals obtaining SS numbers, Driver licenses, bank accounts and credit cards, welfare, or even legal status for the children they birth here.

I have often said this is a core problem with our health care. I see identity theft on the rise.

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RE: 14% Jump in Healtchare Reform Approval - 9/10/2009 9:06:10 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SpinnerofTales

Have things gotten so polarized that it will cause physical damage for conservatives to admit that Obama is good at politics? He came from being a no name senator to defeat a woman who common wisdom was sure to win the Democratic nomination. He defied more common wisdom that no way America elects a black democrat (again the thought was that the first black president would be a republican....many wanted Colin Powell until his credibility was destroyed by the Bush administration) to become the first black president of the United States. I am not asking you to approve of a single one of his policies, but at least give the devil his due and admit that he knows how to work the getting elected game.

I believe I have, Spinner, and I don't need to call President Obama a devil before giving him the due. I don't think he's quite the master of all things political you seem to (the Gates Gaffe being an excellent recent example that he can step in it as well as any other politician), but he is very good. Should you find yourelf wandering the archives of past discussion, you will find me saying complimentary things about some of his skills even before the primaries began. He blew me away at the '04 DNC.

Some things he does very well, others moderately so, still other things I think he has much room to learn and grow.

Please don't try to spin my comments about your misleading thread title into something it isn't. Perhaps you missed the last line of my post, as you missed the next-to-last paragraph of the CNN article, where I suggest we wait and see some more real numbers before you cream in your jeans, and the conservatives just default the '10 an '12 elections to the libs?

Oh. And yes. Things are going to get VERY polarized, before this is all over. I suspect Obama will make Bush II's numbers look good.

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