einstien5201
Posts: 63
Joined: 9/29/2009 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: variation30 "Do you think I’m overreacting? One in every six American women will be sexually assaulted in her lifetime. I bet you don’t think you know any rapists, but consider the sheer number of rapes that must occur. These rapes are not all committed by Phillip Garrido, Brian David Mitchell, or other members of the Brotherhood of Scary Hair and Homemade Religion. While you may assume that none of the men you know are rapists, I can assure you that at least one is. Consider: if every rapist commits an average of ten rapes (a horrifying number, isn’t it?) then the concentration of rapists in the population is still a little over one in sixty. That means four in my graduating class in high school. One among my coworkers. One in the subway car at rush hour. Eleven who work out at my gym." that's some really fuzzy math. Well, if we assume that only women get raped (not true, I know, but I'm lacking in figures for the ratio of men who are sexually assaulted) and that all the rapists are men (also not true, I know), and that men and women each make up 50% of the population (also not true, but not too far off on this one), and that each man rapes ten different women and that no woman is targeted by two different rapists, then the actual concentration of people who have in the past or will in the future commit a rape will be one for every sixty men or one in every one-hundred and twenty people. The final figure here is the same if we throw out the last two assumptions, I suppose, but it made getting to it much simpler. If his initial data is correct, then she's only off by a factor of 2. This is more likely him forgetting to divide by two when going from "women" to "people" (if one in six women is raped, then one in twelve people are) then any sort of fuzzy math. Again, this does not include rapes of men. Personally, I think it's likely that the average rapist commits well over ten sexual assaults (and I'd like to see what's included in his figures for "sexual assaults") in his/her lifetime.
< Message edited by einstien5201 -- 10/18/2009 10:08:18 PM >
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