RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (Full Version)

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ModeratorEleven -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 8:20:24 AM)

And gone again.  Some people never learn.

XI



ScooterTrash -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 9:10:23 AM)

Thanks Eleven!



Level -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 10:45:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ModeratorEleven

And gone again.  Some people never learn.

XI


*Tips the hat to M11*



Lordandmaster -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 1:28:01 PM)

I'll assume "Lardandmaster" was a typo, because if it wasn't, your immaturity is starting to piss me off.  Exactly what did I say that you disagree with so strongly?  And where's the fire in your belly coming from?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chaingang

LardandMaster:

Good God, aren't you through preening yet? How is it exactly you are the expert when even you qualify your statements with how predictions are hard to make and that you are sure to be wrong in many areas yourself?

Fuck, get over it. It' possible to disagree with you and for no other reason than your own admissions.

I think you are dead wrong, and I think it's prudent to base my political views on my own views even if I turn out to be wrong. Better safe than sorry.



NeedToUseYou -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 1:31:25 PM)

quote:


I'll assume "Lardandmaster" was a typo,


Funny, hehe, fight fight fight. LOL



caitlyn -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 1:56:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster
I'll assume "Lardandmaster" was a typo, because if it wasn't, your immaturity is starting to piss me off.  Exactly what did I say that you disagree with so strongly?  And where's the fire in your belly coming from?


I think it probably was a typo. This whole tread seems out of character for Chaingang, who is usually a very well thought out poster.
 
I believe (strictly speculation of course) that he got off course in this tread with his assertions that China was actually a military threat to the United States. When asked to back this with any data, he somewhat went into deflection mode. Happens all the time ... hell I do the exact same thing when off course.
 
What Chaingang could have done, is admit the obvious ... that with an ocean on either shore and being the only nation on Earth that deploys a modern navy, China is really no conventional military threat to the United States at all. Considering the Soviet Union bankrupted themselves trying to close the naval gap with the United States, and was still not able to build an aircraft carrier with supersonic capable aircraft, he might have consider how completely untenable his position was, and backed off it. China has a small and backward navy, and virtually no naval tradition. They will not have a navy to rival that of the United States in ten years, or twenty years. Considering the gains in naval technology that the United States will take delivery on in the next ten years, and given that historical fact that building a navy is a long term process rather than something that can be done in a short time, it's highly likely that China is perhaps fifty or more years from deploying a navy that would even have a fighting chance against a modern fleet.
 
This is not arrogant Americanism ... it is just cold hard facts. The United States navy rules the seas with no challengers. There will not be challengers for quite some time. No other country even has a modern carrier on the drawing board. No other country has ever built a supersonic carrier aircraft. The gap at sea is so large, it cannot be closed in our lifetime. That just is, what it is.



Level -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 1:59:44 PM)

Let me ask this and see what comes up.
 
What do you all think would/could happen if China attacked Taiwan?



caitlyn -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 2:15:44 PM)

China does not have the capability to attack Taiwan, and they are very wise to know this to be the case.
 
Any buildup of forces would be easily detected both by the United States, and any number of other nations. Putting Chinese soldiers on ships under the watchful eye of the three American aircraft carrier battle groups deployed in the region, would be suicide.
 
China has a very smart government, that knows it's limitations. They know that right now, they are no match militarily for the United States. This isn't American arrogance ... again, it's just the way things are, and the way they will probably be for quite some time.



Chaingang -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 2:23:19 PM)

Well, it already thought that China has nukes. What if they just pull some suitcase bombs in most of the major U.S. cities? Like a lot of them?

That's the new warfare - or the old warfare for that matter. Hidden among the leaves like the ancient Bushido. Kamikaze style like the Japanese of WW II. Suicide bomber style like the PLO. From hidden locations like the early American colonists (which they supposedly learned from the indigenous natives). In sum, guerrilla or terrorist style warfare - the way you win against a supposedly stronger enemy.

We won't even know for sure who hit us.

I think the Navy is only useful as intimidation. Warfare is going to get small again. Hand to hand and person to person. Hi-tech and low-tech combining to create small, mobile units of unimagined and devastating potential. That stand-offish warfare will not do as a defense. People will need to be prepared to die - and Americans are not prepared to die.

And that's were Americans will chicken out again - like people on a plane overcome by box cutters. Right?

And you know what - anyone can play. I just think the Chinese will eventually have motive. For one, they will want to beat Korea to the punch.




Chaingang -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 2:30:25 PM)

China's alternate plan: "Why fight when we can buy and sell you?"

...

SEATTLE--The first lavish dinner of China President Hu Jintao's historic visit to the United States next week will be in a big, secure house in Washington where the host is one of the world's most powerful men.

"China president at Gates house, not White House"
http://news.com.com/China+president+at+Gates+house%2C+not+White+House/2100-1001_3-6061616.html?tag=nefd.top

...

We already know the U.S. is very nearly underwater with China economically. What more do we not know?

New definition of irony: communists using capital as weapon of choice.




caitlyn -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 2:38:11 PM)

You do realize that the Kamakaze did lose, and the PLO has proven completely inept against the IDF, and that the American colonies were not able to defeat the British, until they built their own, modern, trained military. [;)]



Chaingang -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 2:40:18 PM)

You are ignoring the nuke factor. The nuke factor trumps most everything. Ask the Japanese.



caitlyn -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 2:46:18 PM)

Not ignoring anything ... we all know and hope that mutually assured destruction is still alive in people's minds.
 
Any nation that used large numbers of these weapons on another, would only be killing themselves. That includes the United States.
 
So, tell me again, why would China want to go to war with it's best trading partner?



Chaingang -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 2:53:54 PM)

These are your hypotheticals. Military might can work lots of ways. You asked about emerging superpowers, I still say China. They might do it with warfare of some kind or they might do it economically. We all know that since the mythic time of Joshua's conquest it is preferred to kill everyone but to leave the wealth intact - that's probably what will happen. Some ancient or newly updated version of the neutron bomb: put everyone to the sword but leave the property intact.

That's what everyone wants: the goods.

Look at how devastated Japan rose from the ashes of WW II. Now look at China. You are going to tell me that 20 years out or that certainly within our lifetimes they are not an issue? I simply think otherwise. We are in bed with them now. Superpowers make strange bedfellows.

You know, we can agree to disagree on this.



DelightMachine -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 9:15:26 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

I'll assume "Lardandmaster" was a typo, because if it wasn't, your immaturity is starting to piss me off.  Exactly what did I say that you disagree with so strongly?  And where's the fire in your belly coming from?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chaingang

LardandMaster:

Good God, aren't you through preening yet? How is it exactly you are the expert when even you qualify your statements with how predictions are hard to make and that you are sure to be wrong in many areas yourself?

Fuck, get over it. It' possible to disagree with you and for no other reason than your own admissions.

I think you are dead wrong, and I think it's prudent to base my political views on my own views even if I turn out to be wrong. Better safe than sorry.



LaM, everyone can see his immaturity, and he's not worth your time in getting mad at. I find it's better to ignore him.

Incidentally, thanks for your post in reply to my questions about China. I appreciate your taking the time.



DelightMachine -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/16/2006 9:25:24 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn
 why would China want to go to war with it's best trading partner?


MAD only works when both sides are rational. Dictators aren't always rational. Examples: Hitler's decision to invade the Soviet Union, Saddam's behavior just before the invasion.

Dictators, especially over time, can make irrational decisions if their toadies are fearful of giving them the truth, and if you only have fawning toadies around you, you can make a lot of stupid mistakes.

We don't know who will be in control of China 10 years from now or more. It might be a military coup that takes over from the Communist Party -- something that might happen with popular approval if too many Chinese get pissed off at the corruption. I could imagine it happening after some series of great scandals, perhaps ones that cost lives. Let's say a nuclear power plant causes widespread destruction, perhaps something worse than Chernobyl. Perhaps they respond to a disaster worse than the way we responded to the one in New Orleans.

Yes, we would know about the military buildup before any invasion, but the military could be built up for some time, and we would wonder whether the Chinese leadership may be bluffing or whether it had something to do with appeasing some faction within the government that is aggressive on the Taiwan issue.

If it happened, I hope we'd defend Taiwan. I certainly hope the Chinese keep getting a clear message about that. But whatever we did, we'd try to avoid trading nuclear missiles. 



incognitoinmass -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/17/2006 4:33:48 AM)

Emerging superpowers:

India and China.  Most people, fastest growing economies. 

As for the downfall of American prominence, not anytime soon. 



Amaros -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/17/2006 9:16:37 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

Vietnam and Iraq were/are regional conflicts with very limited objectives, and very limiting rules of engagement. In a global encounter, the only objective would be ultimate victory, and the only rule would be, that there are no rules. Using regional conflicts to make conclusions about global encounters is not apples to apples.


The strategic objective in Vietnam was to deny the Soviets the use of Cam Rhan bay, a year round port - they don't have any. So, in a sense, we actually won that conflict in a roundabout way, as I don't bleive they ever got but limited use of that port, as the North Vietnamese didn't care for the Russians telling them what to do any more than they liked the Americans doing it, although I think they did launch submarines from there.

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn  
 
China could beat the United States right now, if only they could get the United States Navy to stay in port and never fire a shot, so they could ferry millions of soldiers over to California. Actually, that won't work ... they could never feed that army in the field more than a few weeks ... so China could beat America if the United States Navy stays in port, never fires a shot, and the United States contributes two-hundred millions tons of food to the effort.


One word: Sunburn.

Fortunately, the Chinese have never displayed much interest in expanding outside Asia, it's not their MO, number one, and number two, as the largest holder of US debt, they stand to lose much more than they do to gain by going to war with us, as we would of course then default on those loans.

It will be interesting if the Iranians get ahold of some Sunburns however, as the Silkworms they already had, along with the shit Reagan sold them is pretty much obsolete, and probobly doesn't even work too good anymore.

No, it is our political leaderships profligacy, greed and shortsightedness that will be our downfall, should it occur - a guy wrote a book about once, it's called An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations - we're headed down the same path as resulted in the demise the other great financial empires,  Holland, Spain,  Great Britain, etc., for very much the same reasons - though sheer inertia will carry us for a while.

Those who fail to learn from history, etc.



Amaros -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/17/2006 9:57:04 AM)

Ah, it appears the Iranians ordered "an undisclosed number" of Sunburns back in '01 - gives new meaning to the phrase "Never Again Volunteer Yourself".


http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/moskit.htm



UtopianRanger -> RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance (4/17/2006 10:56:15 AM)

quote:

China's alternate plan: "Why fight when we can buy and sell you?"

They own between 350 - 500 billion dollars in our treasury bonds. If they went to our government and called them in for cash, the dollar would be hugely devastated. They don't want to kill the cow, just milk it. Run with the dogs get bitten by the fleas.



 - R

Edited to add : Remember Lenin's Axiom :  ''Quantity has a quality all its own''



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