Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predicting earthquake

Join Our Community

Collarchat.com

Home Login Search

Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predicting earthquake

View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest

All Forums >> [Community Discussions] >> Dungeon of Political and Religious Discussion >> Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predicting earthquake

Page: [1] 2 next > >>

Login

Message

<< Older Topic Newer Topic >>

Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predicting ... - 10/22/2012 1:38:49 PM

YN

Posts: 699
Status: offline

The Italian government provides the world with new legal principles -

quote:

Defying assertions that earthquakes cannot be predicted, an Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter Monday for failing to adequately warn residents before a temblor struck central Italy in 2009 and killed more than 300 people.

The court in L'Aquila also sentenced the defendants to six years each in prison. All are members of the national Great Risks Commission, and several are prominent scientists or geological and disaster experts.

Scientists had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no reliable way of predicting earthquakes. So news of the verdict shook the tightknit community of earthquake experts worldwide.

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/italian-court-convicts-quake-warning-17534710#.UIWpPoa6SSo

Who is next? Weather forecasters must be considered a league of hardened criminals in Italy.

And Italian economists certainly deserve imprisonment for their failings in predicting the current poor state of the Italian economy.

But is criminally punishing even scientists for being unable to accurately discern very opaque and complicated future events which are often regarded as "acts of God" by normal people a proper thing?

< Message edited by YN -- 10/22/2012 1:39:23 PM >

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 2:08:45 PM

Aswad

Posts: 9374
Joined: 4/4/2007
Status: offline

There is something profoundly ironic about a predominantly Catholic country holding scientists accountable for not predicting an "act of God".

The reasonable response would seem to be to expand the charges to encompass the government officials for collusion, as having a chance to predict an unexpected earthquake requires a budget they undoubtedly were not given, which must have been intentional unless the same officials were allocating public funds on a strictly accidental or coincidental basis.

One presumes responsible geologists will now resign their positions and leave Italy without anyone else to convict on such bogus charges.

IWYW,
— Aswad.

_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.

(in reply to YN)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 2:18:23 PM

Posts: 3593
Joined: 1/18/2012
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: YN
But is criminally punishing even scientists for being unable to accurately discern very opaque and complicated future events which are often regarded as "acts of God" by normal people a proper thing?

Many here would consider regarding things as Acts of God anything but normal. (Normal people are not delusional.) Science has the answers.

Perhaps, though, it's proper that the alter of science be subjected to the 'settled science' standards it has self-proclaimed as it makes profound statements on what should be taught in schools, what legislation should be passed, or what food is good for you.

In short, it's being hoisted on its own petard.

< Message edited by Yachtie -- 10/22/2012 2:29:26 PM >

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to YN)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 2:20:00 PM

Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aswad

There is something profoundly ironic about a predominantly Catholic country holding scientists accountable for not predicting an "act of God".

The reasonable response would seem to be to expand the charges to encompass the government officials for collusion, as having a chance to predict an unexpected earthquake requires a budget they undoubtedly were not given, which must have been intentional unless the same officials were allocating public funds on a strictly accidental or coincidental basis.

One presumes responsible geologists will now resign their positions and leave Italy without anyone else to convict on such bogus charges.

IWYW,
— Aswad.

The more reaonable option would be to override any treaty with the Vatican and arrest the Pope, who presumably talks directly with God on these matters.

(in reply to Aswad)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 2:50:15 PM

YN

Posts: 699
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: YN
But is criminally punishing even scientists for being unable to accurately discern very opaque and complicated future events which are often regarded as "acts of God" by normal people a proper thing?

Many here would consider regarding things as Acts of God anything but normal. (Normal people are not delusional.) Science has the answers.

Perhaps, though, it's proper that the alter of science be subjected to the 'settled science' standards it has self-proclaimed as it makes profound statements on what should be taught in schools, what legislation should be passed, or what food is good for you.

In short, it's being hoisted on its own petard.

Sorry, I thought an "act of God" to have this meaning -

quote:

act of God n. a natural catastrophe which no one can prevent such as an earthquake, a tidal wave, a volcanic eruption, or a tornado. Acts of God are significant for two reasons: 1) for the havoc and damage they wreak, and 2) because often contracts state that "acts of God" are an excuse for delay or failure to fulfill a commitment or to complete a construction project. Many insurance policies exempt coverage for damage caused by acts of God, which is one time an insurance company gets religion. At times disputes arise as to whether a violent storm or other disaster was an act of God (and therefore exempt from a claim) or a foreseeable natural event. God knows the answer!

http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/act+of+God

< Message edited by YN -- 10/22/2012 2:54:45 PM >

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 2:58:03 PM

Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: YN
But is criminally punishing even scientists for being unable to accurately discern very opaque and complicated future events which are often regarded as "acts of God" by normal people a proper thing?

Many here would consider regarding things as Acts of God anything but normal. (Normal people are not delusional.) Science has the answers.

Perhaps, though, it's proper that the alter of science be subjected to the 'settled science' standards it has self-proclaimed as it makes profound statements on what should be taught in schools, what legislation should be passed, or what food is good for you.

In short, it's being hoisted on its own petard.

Hoisted on his own petard has an equivalent meaning to being blown up by his own bomb. I can not find any coincedential meaning of your short non-sequitur.

If one makes profound statements on education, legislation or nutrition (which have some reasonable levels of certainty, the baying at the moon regarding earthquakes by italians is nither and thither, and thats about that.

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 3:03:33 PM

Posts: 16520
Joined: 9/21/2009
Status: offline

A small bomb used in demolishing fortifications, I think.

_____________________________

I like to think he was eaten by rats, in the dark, during a fog. It's what he would have wanted...
(Simon R Green on the late James Herbert)

(in reply to mnottertail)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 3:04:40 PM

Posts: 1693
Joined: 3/4/2012
From: the other end of Cx's leash
Status: offline

Those crazy italians....what's next, get hung for not knowing the moment a butterfly breaks out of it's cocoon?

_____________________________

*Smitten fox* that's all you need.

(in reply to mnottertail)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 3:06:56 PM

Posts: 16520
Joined: 9/21/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Toysinbabeland

Those crazy italians....what's next, get hung for not knowing the moment a butterfly breaks out of it's cocoon?

No, that's China.
There'll be a fuss about Foxconn doing that next week. Just wait.

_____________________________

I like to think he was eaten by rats, in the dark, during a fog. It's what he would have wanted...
(Simon R Green on the late James Herbert)

(in reply to Toysinbabeland)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 3:11:52 PM

Posts: 1693
Joined: 3/4/2012
From: the other end of Cx's leash
Status: offline

There's no issue there
My fortune cookie predicted this would happen

_____________________________

*Smitten fox* that's all you need.

(in reply to Moonhead)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 3:16:45 PM

YN

Posts: 699
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aswad

There is something profoundly ironic about a predominantly Catholic country holding scientists accountable for not predicting an "act of God".

The reasonable response would seem to be to expand the charges to encompass the government officials for collusion, as having a chance to predict an unexpected earthquake requires a budget they undoubtedly were not given, which must have been intentional unless the same officials were allocating public funds on a strictly accidental or coincidental basis.

One presumes responsible geologists will now resign their positions and leave Italy without anyone else to convict on such bogus charges.

IWYW,
— Aswad.

The more reaonable option would be to override any treaty with the Vatican and arrest the Pope, who presumably talks directly with God on these matters.

Cut out all the middlemen and agents and call God before the court. Don't take half-measures. And punish the rest for conspiracy.

This is comedy.

(in reply to vincentML)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 4:35:09 PM

Posts: 14862
Joined: 5/7/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aswad

There is something profoundly ironic about a predominantly Catholic country holding scientists accountable for not predicting an "act of God".

You couldnt make it up could you. Simplicio seems to have had a rethink.

(in reply to Aswad)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 4:38:29 PM

Posts: 14862
Joined: 5/7/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead

A small bomb used in demolishing fortifications, I think.

Not quite but close. It was a small bomb on a stick (petard), used for blowing open doors.

You jammed your stick in the earth, lit the fuse and hoped it go off to soon and hoist you skywards.

(in reply to Moonhead)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 4:40:09 PM

Aswad

Posts: 9374
Joined: 4/4/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

The more reaonable option would be to override any treaty with the Vatican and arrest the Pope, who presumably talks directly with God on these matters.

I'd love to see them do that. It would no doubt resolve the matter in short order.

IWYW,
— Aswad.

_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.

(in reply to vincentML)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 4:51:44 PM

Posts: 37282
Joined: 8/2/2006
Status: offline

FR

I understand how tragedy draws out the craving to blame someone, anyone for life's randomness, but this is absurd.

_____________________________

No matter how cynical you become,
it's never enough to keep up.

JANE WAGNER, THE SEARCH FOR SIGNS OF
INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE

(in reply to Aswad)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 4:57:41 PM

Posts: 1009
Joined: 4/29/2004
Status: offline

Jee-Zeus, this is just plain stupid! Kind of reminds us of the anti-scientific attitude in some political circles here. Could we see trials for 'negligence' for the experts when it's the politicians who are to blame, such as Katrina? Something to think about.

(in reply to dcnovice)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 4:59:33 PM

Aswad

Posts: 9374
Joined: 4/4/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

You couldnt make it up could you. Simplicio seems to have had a rethink.

Maybe.

But, in all fairness, as I understand it, the underlying issue is a corruption scandal.

One group of scientists made a prediction of a major quake based on their model. They were silenced due to concerns about tourism, and then another group was induced to put forth a prediction of no major quake. This second group would have had no good reason (in a scientific sense) to predict a major quake, but the allegation is that they put forth a prediction of one not occuring for reasons other than a scientific one. In short, two competing models were used, where one can't fault either of the models, nor fault people for preferring either model, but where there was a corrupt intent behind making a strong negative prediction, rather than the usual "nah, we don't think that's very likely" skepticism that attends any new theory.

The theory that predicted the major quake isn't on solid ground (pun not intended), so the second group could have legitimately said that they didn't see a quake coming, but there being other influences involved means it's a question of whether they were unlawfully induced to go with another theory, or whether they were already convinced (with the corruption element thus being redundant and incidental, not causative, as to their predictions). If they chose a theory on the basis that it would support the view they were incentivized to hold, then I suppose a decent case could be made that they were indeed in dereliction of their duties, but the prosecution seems to have included that whole bit about accurate predictions.

It may well be these guys should be locked up, just not for what they're being charged with.

It's not implausible that the prosecutors might be setting this up for an appeal to carry the day due to the charges being unfounded (they are, as-is; we don't have a definitive predictive model for earthquakes), as a way to sidestep the real issue on which they could've been convicted. If so, then it's high politics as usual in Italy, with the prosecution effectively clearing their names and making them look like the victims of a gross miscarriage of justice (i.e. heroes by inversion), rather than being locked up somewhere. Wouldn't be the first time prosecutors in Italy were part of a corruption scandal in some way.

Either way, a pretty creative thing they've got going here.

IWYW,
— Aswad.

< Message edited by Aswad -- 10/22/2012 5:00:34 PM >

_____________________________

"If God saw what any of us did that night, he didn't seem to mind.
From then on I knew: God doesn't make the world this way.
We do." -- Rorschack, Watchmen.

(in reply to Politesub53)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 5:06:34 PM

Posts: 688
Joined: 10/20/2006
Status: offline

Yachtie: Fail on use/understanding of the saying. No wonder so many of your pronouncements are off kilter? You are missing too much of both language and science. Study up! English, communication and meaning shouldn't really be such a creative endeavor. You really can't mean what you say till you can say what you mean? And you Really need to study some (Any) on the theory of Science. The process of investigating Nature can never prove anything, it can only disprove. Which is fine for demolishing much of 'conventional wisdom' accumulated by a culture that doesn't look closely at events or processes. No scientist pretends to know earthquakes or weather. They discuss models and the so far observed quantified relation of the various model's predictions to past observable events. How well it's worked, so far, in simpler words.
All models are works in progress! Actual predictions are almost always expressed in percentages or degrees of confidence. Which generally is way above journalist's heads.

Politesub53: The hope is the petard Doesn't hoist the engineer skywards?

Guys, Wikipedia really does cover this stuff? Even the pun Shakespeare used.

A better news story about the disaster and the court case would have included the actual (Translation?) of the releases the scientists were quoted on about the chances of earthquake. Most likely there were important qualifiers in their release that the news people 'neglected' to include when disseminating them.

(in reply to Politesub53)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 5:20:54 PM

Posts: 14862
Joined: 5/7/2007
Status: offline

Epiphiny......Yes, the minute he lights the fuse. Some were prone to going off instantly, hence the saying.

(in reply to epiphiny43)

RE: Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predict... - 10/22/2012 5:21:06 PM

Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline

quote:

And you Really need to study some (Any) on the theory of Science. The process of investigating Nature can never prove anything, it can only disprove. Which is fine for demolishing much of 'conventional wisdom' accumulated by a culture that doesn't look closely at events or processes. No scientist pretends to know earthquakes or weather. They discuss models and the so far observed quantified relation of the various model's predictions to past observable events. How well it's worked, so far, in simpler words.
All models are works in progress! Actual predictions are almost always expressed in percentages or degrees of confidence.

Wow! Really? Glad you told us this.

FWIW, Yachtie was making a political statement, epiph. Ya sotra gotta read between the lines.

(in reply to epiphiny43)

Page: [1] 2 next > >>

All Forums >> [Community Discussions] >> Dungeon of Political and Religious Discussion >> Italian Court Punishes 7 scientists for not predicting earthquake

Page: [1] 2 next > >>

Jump to:

New Messages	No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages	Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages	Locked w/o New Messages

Post New Thread

Reply to Message

Post New Poll

Submit Vote

Delete My Own Post

Delete My Own Thread

Rate Posts

Collarchat.com © 2024

Terms of Service

0.426