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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/19/2013 8:28:18 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

The US went into a serious depression in 1919 as result of WWI. It didn't last as long as The Great Depression which is why no one of a political bent (such as this idiot author) or his readers is even aware of that. Nor are they aware of the serious economic depression in all of Europe after that war.

Farrell points to the recessions that occured after wars as I recall. He discussed the drawdown from Iraq and Afghanistan negatively impacting growth in America.

He was, tongue in cheek I think, talking about the economic stimulus at the beginning of a war. Then of course you have to assume you win. There was great expectation of a recession in America at the end of WW2 but it did not occur. The reason often given is that throughout the War the American people were fully employed but had no place to spend their money because cars and large appliances were not being produced, families were on rations, and so there was a high savings rate which burst into a buying binge after the war.

Not to forget the Americans contributed large sums of money (for that time) to rebuild Western European nations. Russia and the Eastern satellites declined our help. Stalin thought it was a plot of some sort. Eastern European economies never caught up.

The depression of 1920-1921 is generally attributed to the deflationary effects of the return of troops which expanded the labor market immensely too quickly. Too many workers, not enough jobs.

quote:

The US was substantially out of The Great Depression by early 1937, but a too early tightening of the money supply caused a slight relapse. But even after that the situation by 1939 had recovered to beyond pre-crash 1927.

US unemployment in 1939 was 17.3%. Look it up.

quote:

Some would argue that five or more years of rationing after the hostilities have ceased would not be the best indication of war being a "boon to the economy."

"Some" were very freakin wrong about that in America at the end of WW2.

< Message edited by vincentML -- 4/19/2013 8:29:44 PM >

(in reply to Edwynn)
Profile   Post #: 41
RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/19/2013 9:45:51 PM   
Edwynn


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So then, war is good for America, screw everybody else, so then war is "good for the economy," as long as we limit that to our own ends.

Rationing existed in all of Europe after the war.

The decrease in unemployment in the US at the onset of WWII has to be balanced by the record breaking increase in the national deficit. There's no free lunch here.

The Vietnam war ultimately resulted in the US having to decline from being preservers of the standard exchange rate. This resulted in us having to eventually raise the interest rate to 16%.

Look it up.

Looking at what a "boon" war is to an economy at the onset with out looking at the after effects is political sophistry, not to mention plain ignorance. Same short term view as US corporations, what a coincidence.

Deregulation was looked upon likewise, and we are dealing with the consequences of that now and for years to come.

PS

As others have pointed out early on in the thread, what's good for profits and what's "good for the economy" are not one and the same, unless you are Reagan or Thatcher or Pinochet.




< Message edited by Edwynn -- 4/19/2013 9:51:27 PM >

(in reply to vincentML)
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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/20/2013 9:21:46 AM   
vincentML


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quote:

So then, war is good for America, screw everybody else, so then war is "good for the economy," as long as we limit that to our own ends.

I repeat: I take the article as written as tongue in cheek. You take it too seriously.

quote:

The decrease in unemployment in the US at the onset of WWII has to be balanced by the record breaking increase in the national deficit. There's no free lunch here.

The national debt was easily overrun by the rise in GDP after WW2.

quote:

The Vietnam war ultimately resulted in the US having to decline from being preservers of the standard exchange rate. This resulted in us having to eventually raise the interest rate to 16%.

Nahhhh. West Germany was the first to abandon the Brenton Woods arrangement. They had no part in the Vietnam War. We were in deep recession after that war. Inflation was caused by the two oil shocks. That's what lead to the rise of interest rates in 1981.

quote:

As others have pointed out early on in the thread, what's good for profits and what's "good for the economy" are not one and the same, unless you are Reagan or Thatcher or Pinochet.

Farrell spoke to the enrichment of the 1% in his article.

Read it.

quote:

Looking at what a "boon" war is to an economy at the onset with out looking at the after effects is political sophistry, not to mention plain ignorance. Same short term view as US corporations, what a coincidence.

No. It is economic sophistry. Farrell knows this and uses it to mock the 1%

Step back. Take a deep breath. Read the article.

(in reply to Edwynn)
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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/20/2013 10:26:49 AM   
MrRodgers


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwynn


So then, war is good for America, screw everybody else, so then war is "good for the economy," as long as we limit that to our own ends.

Rationing existed in all of Europe after the war.

The decrease in unemployment in the US at the onset of WWII has to be balanced by the record breaking increase in the national deficit. There's no free lunch here.

The Vietnam war ultimately resulted in the US having to decline from being preservers of the standard exchange rate. This resulted in us having to eventually raise the interest rate to 16%.

Look it up.

Looking at what a "boon" war is to an economy at the onset with out looking at the after effects is political sophistry, not to mention plain ignorance. Same short term view as US corporations, what a coincidence.

Deregulation was looked upon likewise, and we are dealing with the consequences of that now and for years to come.

PS

As others have pointed out early on in the thread, what's good for profits and what's "good for the economy" are not one and the same, unless you are Reagan or Thatcher or Pinochet.

The key word in the OP is the economy. And little to nothing in America or the west is about the economy. Economy is a political talking point that is little more than talking about the weather.

What results from political or economic policy is about profits and power...not the economy. The economy, not to mention jobs and housing, are incidental. So.....

(oh and it wasn't 'us' who raised rates to 16%, it was the fed who cut the 'economy' off at the knees to achieve its narrow goals) fuck the economy.

The OP's question is a non sequitur. Wars as most policies from govt. do not 'stimulate' the economy and are never to be expected to serve that purpose, short of labor itself let by the govt. which would need to be a massive jobs program...like from FDR.

(in reply to Edwynn)
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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/20/2013 11:17:08 PM   
Edwynn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

So then, war is good for America, screw everybody else, so then war is "good for the economy," as long as we limit that to our own ends.


I repeat: I take the article as written as tongue in cheek. You take it too seriously.



quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

ORIGINAL: LizDeluxe

The article was a satire of those who think war stimulates the economy.


If you read page 2 you will find it is not a satire.





Thanks for that clarification.





< Message edited by Edwynn -- 4/20/2013 11:34:49 PM >

(in reply to vincentML)
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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/20/2013 11:48:30 PM   
Edwynn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
Nahhhh. West Germany was the first to abandon the Brenton Woods arrangement.


Do tell.

That's Bretton, not Brenton, but go ahead anyway.

(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 46
RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/21/2013 7:13:43 AM   
defiantbadgirl


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What America needs to stimulate the economy is single-payer health care:

1. Companies can hire as many people as they want in the US without having to worry about paying health insurance premiums.

2. Health insurance agents can still keep their jobs if they shift to offering coverage for procedures that aren't medically necessary.

3. Single-payer actually cuts costs (proven many times in comparisons of amount spent in US vs other developed countries).

4. Age discrimination by companies to keep health insurance premiums lower will be a thing of the past.


With single-payer health care, there would be no mass exodus of doctors. Where would they go? Other developed countries already control costs through single-payer health care. How much money would they make in undeveloped countries? If we need more doctors, medical schools can stop turning away so many applicants.

War causes death, disability, and mental health issues like PTSD. Funds are required to care for war veterans. Look how much in debt we are already due to wars. Whatever we do to stimulate the economy, war is definitely not the answer.

< Message edited by defiantbadgirl -- 4/21/2013 7:18:12 AM >


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(in reply to vincentML)
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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/21/2013 7:45:30 AM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwynn


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
Nahhhh. West Germany was the first to abandon the Brenton Woods arrangement.


Do tell.

That's Bretton, not Brenton, but go ahead anyway.

Cheap shot.

But if that's all it takes to let you feel superior have at it. Evidently it takes so little.

(in reply to Edwynn)
Profile   Post #: 48
RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/21/2013 7:53:12 AM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwynn


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

So then, war is good for America, screw everybody else, so then war is "good for the economy," as long as we limit that to our own ends.


I repeat: I take the article as written as tongue in cheek. You take it too seriously.



quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

ORIGINAL: LizDeluxe

The article was a satire of those who think war stimulates the economy.


If you read page 2 you will find it is not a satire.





Thanks for that clarification.





Happy to oblige. It most certainly was a satire on page one. A spoof on the war profiteers. However, he pointed to some seriously provocative issues on page two. So, yeh. Happy to parse it out for those who lack critical reading skills and fail to look back at their own remarks to which I responded.

(in reply to Edwynn)
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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/21/2013 8:00:24 AM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

America needs a new war? For the economy to survive? Job market to revive? Capitalism thrive? Maybe. Here’s why:

Forbes reported that GDP data “fell for the first time in three and a half years in the fourth quarter ... declining by an annualized 0.1%” while “economists had expected GDP to increase 1%. A dramatic 15% drop in government spending dragged on economic activity. Defense outlays were cut the most, falling by 22.2%, the largest decrease in defense since the Vietnam War’s end in 1972.”

Wars stimulate the economy and we are a warrior nation: Didn’t WWII get us out of the Great Depression? And the Iraq/Afghan Wars, longest in history, sure stimulated the economy ... the Pentagon war machine doubled from $260 billion in 2000 to roughly $550 billion last year ... GDP increased 50% from $10 trillion to $15 trillion ... and federal debt tripled to over $15 trillion from under $5 trillion back when our leaders believed “debt didn’t matter.”

However, with the Afghan and Iraq Wars winding down, capitalism needs an economic stimulus: a new war. It’s so American: Neocons believe a new war would boost GDP. They must be praying North Korea’s Lil’ Kim will do something impulsive. Give us an excuse.

Yet Washington politicians are conflicted. Some want to shrink government, cut debt and are cheering the “dramatic 15% drop in government spending.” On the other hand, the “largest decrease in defense since the Vietnam War’s end in 1972” is unnerving neocons, warhawks and politicians heavily dependent on defense contractors, lobbyists and voters at military bases in their districts.

So what’s next? If American capitalism needs a new war to survive ... if we’re slowing down the Afghan and Iraq war theaters ... if North Korea’s just saber-rattling ... if China has too much to lose ... if new wars are fought by drones from video screens in one of the Pentagon’s 70 drone bases ... but if all the military-industrial complex capitalists who get rich off wars are still itching to attack ... then who will trigger a new war for America’s “disaster capitalists?”

[Your thoughts???]


1. WWII DID stimulate the economy, through deficit spending. There's a reason that both Reagan and Cheney espoused that deficits don't matter - it's the only way to justify defense spending increases. In today's deficit-cutting climate, any deficit spending for a war that did not involve a direct hit on the US is a political nonstarter.
2. The argument that war is good for the economy, is dead. It was true for WWII and maybe the Vietnam war, and Vietnam War vets' return inflated unemployment. But obviously, the Iraq and Afghani wars coincided over a flatlining economy.
3. If we were to start another war, the major beneficiaries would be the C level execs of defense companies and India, because the defense firms would subcontract out most of the engineering and IT work. That would exacerbate the "class warfare" within this country a lot.
4. Beating the war drums would further divide the GOP, between deficit hawks and war-crazy neocons. The GOP's poor health is bad for the country. We need two viable parties, hopefully more some day.
5. Beating up another country and killing citizens of both, so we can afford bigger houses, is one of the most immoral things I've ever read, even if it WOULD work.


_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

(in reply to vincentML)
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RE: Does America need another war to stimulate the econ... - 4/21/2013 9:28:13 AM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
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quote:

1. WWII DID stimulate the economy, through deficit spending. There's a reason that both Reagan and Cheney espoused that deficits don't matter - it's the only way to justify defense spending increases. In today's deficit-cutting climate, any deficit spending for a war that did not involve a direct hit on the US is a political nonstarter.

The war hawks will always find a way, Steven.

quote:

2. The argument that war is good for the economy, is dead. It was true for WWII and maybe the Vietnam war, and Vietnam War vets' return inflated unemployment. But obviously, the Iraq and Afghani wars coincided over a flatlining economy.

True. But from such a small sample it is impossible to predict the effects.

quote:

3. If we were to start another war, the major beneficiaries would be the C level execs of defense companies and India, because the defense firms would subcontract out most of the engineering and IT work. That would exacerbate the "class warfare" within this country a lot.

Seems that we no longer have the requisite pool of engineers and IT personnel but maybe war would change that just as the space race did.

The economic class disparity seems to be inexorable.

quote:

4. Beating the war drums would further divide the GOP, between deficit hawks and war-crazy neocons. The GOP's poor health is bad for the country. We need two viable parties, hopefully more some day.

Maybe we would see a rebirth of the Whigs

quote:

5. Beating up another country and killing citizens of both, so we can afford bigger houses, is one of the most immoral things I've ever read, even if it WOULD work.

Absolutely immoral . . . . but that is what Empires do.

(in reply to DarkSteven)
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