Nikki Haley should run as an independent

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Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/23/2024 6:39:12 PM

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For decades now, a lot of us have been saying, if only our horrible winner-take-all electoral college system did not exist, we could have a 3rd party candidate.

The math just NEVER worked out.

On the way home from work today, it occurred to me. Nikki Haley could be the ONE candidate that could do it!

She has 30-40% of the Republican vote depending on the state. If Trump gets convicted, that probably goes up to 55-60%, depending on the state.
She has 12 - 25% of the Democrat vote. I estimate that goes way higher if she announces an independent candidacy.
She has 80% of the independent vote. I estimate goes to 95% if Trump gets convicted.

I see her winning, NH, Vermont, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, maybe New York, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, maybe California!

Need to add up the Electoral votes here. Ya can't win with a plurality with electoral votes. You need 270. I don't know if she could win, but she would be the closest!

She would need a butt load of cash
Tons of endorsements and surrogates
She would have to ease up on the Biden bashing and right wing nonsense.

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/23/2024 9:55:55 PM

JVoV

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She may have signed a non-compete agreement when entering the GOP primary.

There is no third party on the country that has the resources the Republican or Democrat parties do.

Knowing her history, even as a third party candidate, she would be a conservative, siding with Republicans pretty much always. That would mean conservative judges. I'm not sure the Democrats would give that up.

If Trump is convicted, Haley is the probable GOP candidate for the general election.

Um still voting for Biden.

(in reply to MasterJaguar01)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/24/2024 7:28:15 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JVoV

She may have signed a non-compete agreement when entering the GOP primary.

So? She could ignore it like Trump did. The RNC is not going to sue her. They would be afraid that she would say "They can't beat me at the ballot box so they are going to try to do it in the courts."

quote:

There is no third party on the country that has the resources the Republican or Democrat parties do.

True, but parties only have resources because people give them money. All she needs is a handful of HUGE donors, and tens of thousands of medium donors and hundreds of thousands of small donors. (If she were to run as an independent, I'd send her a few bucks)

quote:

Knowing her history, even as a third party candidate, she would be a conservative, siding with Republicans pretty much always. That would mean conservative judges. I'm not sure the Democrats would give that up.

She needs to run as an independent. (Not a 3rd party candidate.) The third parties that are out there have no direction.

A couple things about her. Of all the Republicans Trump has labelled a RINO simply because they disagreed with him or criticized him, Nikki Haley is actually a TRUE RINO (I can almost picture her with a horn and hoofs (Do Rhinos have hoofs?))

I absolutely love that about her!

She has spewed the right wing nonsense for years, because it is critical to do that in the right wing ecosystem. In reality, she actually UNDERSTANDS policy (the economy, energy, foreign policy, the border and technology.

Also, if she ran as an independent, Fox News/Trump/MAGA would vilify her, mock her, relentlessly attack her. House Republicans would fall into line like the sheep they are, and a good chunk of Republican Senators as well.

She would HATE Republicans, and actually spite them a bit.

(in reply to JVoV)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/24/2024 1:47:32 PM

JVoV

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A party also has the advantage of coordination. Last night's New Hampshire primary may be one of the best examples of that. Joe Biden wasn't even on the ballot, had CHOSEN not to run, won anyway, thanks to a write-in campaign organized at the state and local levels.

That wouldn't be possible for someone running as an Independent. so the test is would it have to be? A movement can start with just one Facebook post or one tweet. Where Ross Perot had to buy primetime network airtime, a candidate could easily have social media posts and her own website. Haley's run as an Independent could completely reshape the way politics is organized in this country, in this era. That really needs to happen.

The Republicans wouldn't be the only ones opposing her though. I don't think she'll be getting an endorsement from Bernie or AOC. But she would want the votes in between the extremes of AOC and MTG, and with plenty of voters against either of them, she could make the argument of being a more reasonable choice. If she ran on a platform of a moderate. That probably would have been more realistic four years ago.

There is still the possibility that Trump will be convicted before the general election, meaning the Republican Party would need to name a replacement candidate. if this happens after the party convention, I'd think Trump's pick for VP would get the nod, but if it happens before then, Haley would probably be the first choice. Announcing a run for president as an independent candidate would take her out of the running for the Republican nomination entirely. If she announced after the convention, she would be losing precious time needed to gain support, both endorsements and voters.

I certainly won't say it can't be done. The right candidate using the right campaign strategy probably could, and may have an easier time cementing their win in the state houses and the courts. I just don't see Haley making the choice in time.

I honestly don't even understand the designation of RINO. I know what it means as a slur, but I can't think of a candidate that's ever embraced the term as a badge of honor. Mostly, it's used when extremists don't get their way. Very little actually differentiates half of the Republican demographic from their Democratic counterparts, and vice-versa. There are very few absolutes in a voter's mind. Walter Mondale's absolute belief that the death penalty was wrong was tested on the debate stage with a "gotcha" question. He lost a lot of support with that.

There are reasons to vote against Trump, just as there are against Biden. But how many of those reasons can Haley run on, aside from not being a creepy old white dude?

(in reply to MasterJaguar01)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/25/2024 7:01:32 PM

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RNC considering whether to declare Trump as party's nominee

This is the PERFECT launching point for her independent candidacy. (Yes I know Trump already denounced the idea)

STILL

She can say: "The RNC rejected me, but the American voters choose me!"

She is clearly the best choice among Biden, Trump and her.

(in reply to JVoV)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/26/2024 1:56:52 AM

JVoV

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Independent, third party, whatever. Same difference to me. I just don't see it happening, or being successful if it does happen.

The GOP Convention is in August, I think. Early primaries have Trump as the clear winner so far, but roughly half of Republican ballots are for somebody other than Trump. Haley could easily see that as a reason to go Indy, but it's hard to sptell what those bites mean, really. Are they for another candidate or against Trump?

I don't see money as the issue, because as you say, it would only take a few huge donors and then she can beg for change on social media like Bernie did. The problem would be ground support. She certainly won't be getting the free media attention that Biden does as sitting president, or that Trump does for all the court cases.

I think by now, most people have formed their opinions of Trump and Biden and know which devil they wanna dance with. Haley could run as an Independent. She could probably get the Never Trumper GOP vote and take some of Biden's votes too. I just don't think she could win.

(in reply to MasterJaguar01)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/26/2024 7:31:57 AM

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Her own donors are dropping out, because they see NO path for her to win the Republican nomination.

I bet they come back with a vengeance if she announces an independent candidacy.

She needs to either run as an independent or drop out. To me, those are her only two options.

Trump is polling in double digits ahead of her in EVERY state.

In Texas, Trump is up over her by a meager 58 points ;)

(in reply to JVoV)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/26/2024 5:46:05 PM

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I LOVE this woman. She takes NO BULLSHIT from Bill Hemmer or Dana Perino.

She has my vote!

Nikki Haley DESTROYS Bill Hemmer & Dana Perino

(in reply to MasterJaguar01)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/26/2024 6:56:01 PM

JVoV

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I think it was clear from early on that Trump would be the GOP candidate. I don't think anyone in the media predicted these margins though. The fact that Trump is winning over 50% of the Republican vote so far tells me that Trump would steamroll Haley in a general, without even taking Biden into consideration.

I think we'll see her in '28.

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RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/26/2024 7:35:24 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JVoV

The fact that Trump is winning over 50% of the Republican vote so far tells me that Trump would steamroll Haley in a general, without even taking Biden into consideration.

The fact that Trump is BARELY winning over 50% of the Republicans and is near zero with Independents and Democrats, tells me that Haley would wipe the floor with him in every moderate Republican state and might even win some blue states.

She wins New Hampshire, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas, Nevada, and hopefully California and Oregon. These voters don't want Biden or Trump.

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RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/26/2024 7:42:05 PM

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Nikki tells it like it is.

Trump doesn't DARE debate her

Haley challenges Trump to debate, pitches herself as more electable in November

(in reply to MasterJaguar01)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/27/2024 1:10:03 PM

JVoV

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As I said before, I believe that Haley signed a noncompete agreement when she entered the race. The GOP may not go after her in court, but I don't think they'll have to. Biden could easily take advantage of it in attack ads because it would show her to be a liar. If honesty and integrity sway a voter's opinion, they wouldn't jump ship so easily.

I think Haley is too easy to negate as an opponent. What you propose could happen with a new candidate, but who could unite enough voters and not have so many detractors?

If Wil Smith ran a neutral SlapAHo campaign, vowing to smack the shit out of the extremes in both parties, he may actually have a shot.

(in reply to MasterJaguar01)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/27/2024 5:09:30 PM

JVoV

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I've been thinking about my earlier post and I believe Haley could easily counter any such attacks by simply admitting the issue and telling voters what we all already know: this is probably the most important election of our lives.

That wouldn't give her the win, but it would give her a damn good start.

(in reply to JVoV)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/27/2024 5:26:31 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JVoV

I've been thinking about my earlier post and I believe Haley could easily counter any such attacks by simply admitting the issue and telling voters what we all already know: this is probably the most important election of our lives.

That wouldn't give her the win, but it would give her a damn good start.

No other candidate in my lifetime (that I can remember) brings in Republicans, Independents AND Democrats

Maybe Eisenhower..

75% of ALL voters don't want Biden or Trump.
I think at least half of the 75% would vote for Haley and 0% would vote for Trump.

She will get moderate Democrats who don't want Biden (for no other reason than his age). She will get a ton more moderate dems if she could pivot to a general NOW and stay away from Fox News and right wing nonsense.

Far left dems are already pissed at Biden over Palestine and will probably stay home.

Independents LOVE her. The MAGA crowd will stay with trump no matter what.

If she is going to do this, she needs to do it NOW (from the momentum of the RNC move to declare Trump the winner)
BTW: We have now found out the move was secretly orchestrated by Trump (via David Bossie) so he could publically turn it down.

Haley in general election mode would bring back all her billionaire donors and snarky anti-Trump wit.

(in reply to JVoV)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 1/28/2024 7:05:51 PM

JVoV

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I do agree that the sooner a 3rd candidate announced, the better their chances would be. Biden does have the advantage, because he can actually do things, not be an armchair quarterback saying what they would do. That advantage is Biden's to lose though.

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RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 2/4/2024 9:19:19 AM

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Nikki Haley on SNL

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RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 2/5/2024 7:11:50 AM

JVoV

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SNL didn't help Al Sharpton.

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RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 2/8/2024 9:42:04 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JVoV

SNL didn't help Al Sharpton.

Won't help Nikki Haley either

(in reply to JVoV)

RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 2/28/2024 8:53:38 AM

JVoV

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I just got a text from the Haley campaign telling me how importan my vote in the Colorado primary is.

Except I'm a registered Democrat. In Florida. With a Florida area code cell phone.

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RE: Nikki Haley should run as an independent - 2/28/2024 9:56:01 AM

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Thanks for that link. It was pretty funny. I am not sure any channel shows SNL over here. Pops up on my youtube feeds from time to time.

So why wont he debate Nikki Halley? I am glad she is still running. There is a possibility he could be found guilty of something that bars him which would need to be what again? We thought him being a crook, rapist, trump uni, using campaign funds for everything except campaigns, and all the other mad shit should have been enough.

She will rip the orange idiot a part in a debate. He is scared. Mind you a rancid turnip would best him easily.

I am amazed at all the Republicans who have went to heel with him. After everything he said about them too. They are snivelling weak.

The reason the Heritage foundation and many donors have is because they know he will implement their manifesto.

(in reply to MasterJaguar01)

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