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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 6:30:45 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

Hi Firm

What you've presented is a nice story- but I'm sorry, it's got enough holes in it to sink the Titanic.

Historically- the Republicans have been hell bent on tying the hands of the Democrats- witness Clinton's impeachment over a sexual peccadillo and the recent intransigence over passing any bills.

Krugman had a good analogy which I'll borrow from....

The US economy is a morbidly obese patient on the table with a heart attack. Do you send in a surgeon to fix the heart- or do you send in a nutritionist to tell him to quit eating 4 cheeseburgers at a sitting? In the long run- you do need the nutritionist- but he's gonna die if he's not on the table in 5 minutes.

Arguing about long term debt where you've got decades to solve the problem- and have made damn all progress when it was a Republican administration in charge- while the economy remains moribund is just a poor sense of triage.

In short- had the Republicans put such a priority on reducing long term debt when they held both the administration and Congress- it'd be a lot more believable- but I'm not buying the sudden conversion to deficit hawks. This smacks more of politics as usual.

Sorry- but that's the way I see it.

Hi sam.

Like all analogies, they are just analogies and only go so far.

Generally, they are structured to support the point of view we most closely adhere to ourselves.

Firm


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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 6:52:24 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

You are still not seeing it, are you?

I just trying to get you to see that there are at least two sides to the issue.  While you will acknowledge that both parties are responsible, at the end of the day you do indeed place the blame on the Republicans:


And what I want you to understand is that there are rarely ever only two sides to an issue. This junk about there being two sides to every issue is a product of a weak mainstream media that has a pair of partisans scream at each other for an hour. The fact remains that not everyone in this world is either a raging liberal or a die-hard conservative. You're going through great pains to fit me into the former characature that you're willfully twisting my words.

Uhh ... "rarely ever only two sides to an issue ..."

I think I said that, with italics in my original post above.

I'm not willfully twisting your words, just pointing out that despite the fact that you claim "both sides" are to blame, you are operating and posting on the assumption that the Republicans hold the majority the blame in this specific instance.


quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

Yes, I thought Republicans did a bad thing. And yes, I thought the Democratic reaction was also a bad thing. Both parties are to blame. And yet, through some verbal legerdemain, you're trying to make it sound like I blame the Republicans the most.

You do.  Your words are your words.


quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

quote:

I pointed out that it could be viewed as the Democrats attempting to push their legislative agenda to maintain a failed spending policy.

The truth is, both are correct interpretations, but how you see it as to where the "fault" lies says much about your internal biases (that's not a dig, we all have them.  The question is whether or not we recognize them).


There's nothing inherently wrong with a party pushing their legislative agenda; that's what we'd expect political parties to do. As Depeche Mode would say: parties are parties. It only really became a problem when the debt ceiling vote came into play.

Correct or otherwise, I'd point out that my interpretation hews pretty closely to the S&P's interpretation, while yours does not.

Actually your interpretation does not hew to the S&P's interpretation.  S&P went to great lengths to not blame either party, but simply point out that the impasse at the time, in which neither party would compromise, leading to the downgrade.  They did not make a judgment about whether taxes should be raised, or spending cut. Simply that failure to reach an agreement on either or both subject was the danger.

Again, your own words place the responsibility on the Republicans, because their were "pushing their legislative agenda", while giving the Dems a pass when at the exact same time they were "pushing their legislative agenda".



quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

quote:

Your view that Republicans are at fault is obviously present in your example, as well:

Republicans were wrong for holding someone hostage at gunpoint. Democrats were wrong for not going, "Easy now, we'll comply with your demands as long as you don't shoot."

In this analogy, it's again the Republicans who are "the evil-doers" and it's simply a minor fault that the good-hearted Democrats had poor negotiation skills.


I think you took my analogy too literally.

You may believe so, but what are people who hold a gun to someone's head, and make demands?  Close friends?  And the guy who tries to calm down an explosive situation by saying "Easy now ..." (but didn't, in this case), is a raving maniac?  Where does the greater moral opprobrium lay?  It was your analogy.


quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

quote:

A counter-analogy:
The Democrats were wrong for selling our kids into future debt slavery. The Republicans were wrong for not stepping up sooner.

Both fit your "if/then" logic, but it obvious that each one is sympathetic to a particular point of view.  Yours appears to be sympathetic with the Democratic side, and laying primary blame on the Republican side.


Your analogy relies on judgement calls and opinions as to which party has better policy proposals; mine does not. That's the main difference.




I sorry Bantha, but that is a priceless statement of bias.

Of course I weighted mine in the opposite direction from yours.  The purpose of my analogy was to expose the bias in yours, by doing the same thing from the other side.  I guess I succeeded.  But you again miss the point.



quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

Imagine, for instance, that it was the Democrats that refused to pass the debt ceiling extension without also passing one of their legislative priorities (chai lattes in the water fountains, perhaps). And, likewise, it was instead the Republicams whom refused to work with the Democrats on this point.

What we have here is a completely opposite scenario from the one that actually happened. My opinion on the matter would change; I'd blame the Democrats instead of the Republicans for pulling the pin, and I'd blame the Republicans instead of the Democrats for the subsequent recalcitrance. It doesn't matter which party did the wrong action, they still did something wrong.

Regarding your counter-analogy, that wouldn't happen. Even in the exact opposite scenario, you could still apply your same analogy. That might have been why the S&P didn't bring you in to their advisory meetings.

Snark doesn't really give you any greater heft in the argument.

Firm


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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 6:55:07 PM   
samboct


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Hi Firm

Politicians, like most of us have to set priorities.

Right now, the economy is doing abysmally, we've got very high structural unemployment and college kids are getting ground under with a combination of a massive debt load and McDonalds jobs. The middle class is shrinking fast and the people who should be populating it are getting pulped.

From my perspective- get the economy moving first- deal with long term issues later. Your viewpoint, if I understand it, is that the Democrats fail to deal with long term debt unless they've got a gun to their head- which has now happened. Fine- but I'd like to hear the Republican plan for getting the economy moving- because so far all I've caught are more tax breaks which got us into this mess and no new spending. The real Republican solution to our moribund economy is going to have to wait till they're in office. However, if they'd want my support- they'd damn well better come up with something better than the Democrats. I'm still looking for it. (Can I look under Sarah Palin's skirt? I've always wondered what a snapping pussy looks like.)

The Republican plan to date is a replay of what happened back in the 1930s prior to FDR, and still seems to be a triumph of ideology over common sense. It all seems to be wishful thinking- with no clue as to what's been torpedoing our economy, just a wistful return to the days when we could roll up debt and nobody cared.

So from my standpoint- unless the Republicans can come up with a plan to really get the economy moving- their focus on long term debt is just political grandstanding-like the Sarah Palin quote, it's smoke and mirrors, designed to distract from their abysmal record. And whoever wrote that speech, still didn't use the word "myriad" correctly.

Cheers,

Sam

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 103
RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 7:21:07 PM   
BanthaSamantha


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

I'm not willfully twisting your words, just pointing out that despite the fact that you claim "both sides" are to blame, you are operating and posting on the assumption that the Republicans hold the majority the blame in this specific instance.

You do.  Your words are your words.


You're making stuff up.

I've tried to point out time and time again that I do not hold one party more to blame than the other. Not only have I never said what you claim I have said, but you continue to claim it even after I point out that you are mistaken. You're not having a discussion with me, you are arguing through me.

I'll stress it one more time in case you had a migraine when you read my earlier posts. I do not assign more blame to a particular party.




quote:


Actually your interpretation does not hew to the S&P's interpretation.  S&P went to great lengths to not blame either party, but simply point out that the impasse at the time, in which neither party would compromise, leading to the downgrade.  They did not make a judgment about whether taxes should be raised, or spending cut. Simply that failure to reach an agreement on either or both subject was the danger.


Yep, that sounds a lot like my interpretation of the situation.


quote:

Again, your own words place the responsibility on the Republicans, because their were "pushing their legislative agenda", while giving the Dems a pass when at the exact same time they were "pushing their legislative agenda".


I assign no blame because of the content of their legislative agenda (that's your own personal Rorschach test). I assigned blame to Republicans because they were pushing their legislative agenda with threats to not pass the debt ceiling.



quote:


You may believe so, but what are people who hold a gun to someone's head, and make demands?  Close friends?  And the guy who tries to calm down an explosive situation by saying "Easy now ..." (but didn't, in this case), is a raving maniac?  Where does the greater moral opprobrium lay?  It was your analogy.


Ok fine. The Republicans were US Marines holding Bin Laden captive, and the Democrats were Al Quaeda operatives who wanted his release.

Better?


quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

quote:

A counter-analogy:
The Democrats were wrong for selling our kids into future debt slavery. The Republicans were wrong for not stepping up sooner.

Both fit your "if/then" logic, but it obvious that each one is sympathetic to a particular point of view.  Yours appears to be sympathetic with the Democratic side, and laying primary blame on the Republican side.

Your analogy relies on judgement calls and opinions as to which party has better policy proposals; mine does not. That's the main difference.




I sorry Bantha, but that is a priceless statement of bias.

Of course I weighted mine in the opposite direction from yours.  The purpose of my analogy was to expose the bias in yours, by doing the same thing from the other side.  I guess I succeeded.  But you again miss the point.


I think you missed the point, as I addressed your concern with the very next part of my post, the part when I made the instant example. you actually quoted it below, so I'll leave it there for you to reread.



quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

Imagine, for instance, that it was the Democrats that refused to pass the debt ceiling extension without also passing one of their legislative priorities (chai lattes in the water fountains, perhaps). And, likewise, it was instead the Republicams whom refused to work with the Democrats on this point.

What we have here is a completely opposite scenario from the one that actually happened. My opinion on the matter would change; I'd blame the Democrats instead of the Republicans for pulling the pin, and I'd blame the Republicans instead of the Democrats for the subsequent recalcitrance. It doesn't matter which party did the wrong action, they still did something wrong.



< Message edited by BanthaSamantha -- 11/19/2011 7:24:18 PM >

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 7:25:34 PM   
FirmhandKY


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Sam,

*shrugs*

Contrary to popular opinion on the forums here, the Republicans floated several plans during the talks, and there have been several others not during the talks. Google the Ryan Plan for one.

Much of the media are and have played along with the Democratic meme about the entire issue, and so if one isn't actually listening with a large shaker of salt, they might be focused on only one narrative.

All that being said, I'm convinced that things are going to be much, much worse before they get better, regardless of who is in control of either Congress or the White House.  Our problems are structural, and took years to build up.

Firm


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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 7:32:59 PM   
FirmhandKY


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Joined: 9/21/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha

You're making stuff up.

You have a blind spot.  We all do.  But you also seem pretty intelligent, so I'm done talking about what I see as yours in this case.

Perhaps we'll have another opportunity to discuss things.

Firm


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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 7:33:59 PM   
BanthaSamantha


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.

< Message edited by BanthaSamantha -- 11/19/2011 7:35:45 PM >

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 107
RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 7:35:36 PM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BanthaSamantha



Firm

< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 11/19/2011 7:36:52 PM >


_____________________________

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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/19/2011 11:56:13 PM   
SternSkipper


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quote:

There's nothing inherently wrong with a party pushing their legislative agenda; that's what we'd expect political parties to do. As Depeche Mode would say: parties are parties. It only really became a problem when the debt ceiling vote came into play.

Correct or otherwise, I'd point out that my interpretation hews pretty closely to the S&P's interpretation, while yours does not.


I've  find your interpretations pretty interesting over the last couple of weeks.
Hope you keep posting.



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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/20/2011 4:49:01 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Bantha, this is firm's thing. He loves arguing over extremely narrow interpretations of words and phrases because he thinks only he is smart enough to win these debates. Engaging him in this will get you no where as he will never acknowledge that you are right and will just keep repeating the same nonsense and trying ever narrower semantic arguments.

You mean every time I caught you in redefining things to suit you, I called you on it, doncha, Ken?

I knew that there was a reason you stay on hide most of the time.

Firm


No, As always I meant precisely what I wrote not what you wish I wrote.


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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/20/2011 5:07:23 AM   
xssve


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I might call it a coup if it had been written back in 2002 or so, at this point it's just backpedaling.

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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/20/2011 6:17:57 AM   
samboct


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Hi Firm

If the Ryan "plan" is the best example of what the Republicans have offered, I'm not surprising that the press hasn't reported that as a real economic plan- it's largely platitudes dressed up in an attempt to return the status quo pre- Obama.

I skimmed a bit of it- but I looked at the prescriptions for health care spending and energy.

In health care spending- it's a tax credit that gives people an allowance to pick their own plan, and if they spend less, they pocket the difference. Well, whoop de do- they all suck. Then it allows health care companies to cherry pick and puts the people that drive most of the cost of health care spending into an assigned risk pool- where wait... companies have to "compete" with the government to come up with a plan to treat these folks.

Private health insurance has done an abysmal job of providing health care compared to government agencies- Medicare has less paperwork and a higher percentage of what it pays actually goes to physicians than private plans. The Veterans Administration has some of the best health care going for a large population these days.

None of this garbage faces the facts that what's been driving up the costs of medicine are three trends:
1) We're getting older and fatter. Non-communicable diseases are rising at alarming rates, and many of them are lifestyle inflicted. Its far less expensive to treat them sooner and without involving the pharma and physicians than anything else.
2) Health care costs are getting more sophisticated, and like defense weaponry, greater sophistication comes with a higher price tag. The one bright side has been a trend to move more complex treatments away from hospitals into physician's offices- which lowers costs significantly. Hospitals= bad- people die there...expensively.
3) The fee for service model encourages overuse of medications and interventions rather than prevention. We need to pay health care providers for keeping us healthy- not for treating us when we get sick. Getting sick should be seen as a failure of earlier providers. OK, this isn't going to work for cancer- but it should for diabetes and probably heart care.

Since Ryan is claiming that the path we're on is disastrous- then he should be proposing strong medicine to change it. He didn't- at least not in his health care "plan". Its more of a give away to health insurance companies than anything else- and they're a big chunk of the problem. Our use of corporate supervision is why US health care costs basically 40% more than other countries for comparable care.

In energy...he doesn't like cap and trade and wants to increase reliance on hydro and nuclear. Well, someone should tell this bozo that we've done all the large scale hydro we can and paid some pretty stiff environmental consequences. Wiping out fishing has severe economic consequences- anglers spend lots of money per fish.

Nuclear? After having gone to yet another talk where someone from Westinghouse tries to assure people that nuclear is a viable option, I wind up more pissed off at the lies and deceit in this industry. They claim that they've got a $30B fund for dealing with waste- but that Congress has raided the money, and they still don't know how to solve the problem of long terms storage- but we should kind of ignore the economics of an unknown cost. He was willing to admit that reprocessed fuel is several orders of magnitude more expensive than first run fuel- which has more than doubled in the past 4 years by the way- but he didn't have "exact figures." Crock....

But the biggest problem is that the world has moved away from nuclear in a big way with its check book. There are 60 reactors under construction globally each with a capacity of 1-1.5GW so call it 100 GW in round numbers- and it's going to take between 8-10 years to come online. Being generous -call it 20GW per year. Well, wind installed 50GW last year, and 20 GW of PV. Both are continuing to ramp up, even with global uncertainty- and the lead in PV installations is a toss up between the US and China right now. Yes, nuclear has a higher percentage of availability, but what these guys are worrying about is natural gas. They're wrong- if storage and better transmission lines come in- the renewables are going to make the nuclear economics look pretty grim. If we eliminate the subsidies to the renewables industries- this is tantamount to ceding the lead to China. Industries shouldn't get subsidies? Fine- then eliminate the tax breaks and calculate the real costs of the environmental damage caused by oil, gas, coal and nuclear. At least with the wind and PV subsidies they're up front and easy to calculate- and falling.

In short Firm- I'll stand by my previous comments. There hasn't been a Republican plan- there's only been posturing. To paraphrase Cuba Gooding out of Jerry Maguire- "Show me a plan." and then I'll take some of the Republican bellyaching seriously. Without a real economic plan- it's just sour grapes about a lost election- nothing new here folks, move along.

And Firm- lest you think that I'm a partisan Democrat, cheering at Republican discomfiture-nothing could be further from the truth. I'm furious at the Republicans because we are in a crisis- and rather than contribute constructively to the debate, they've sat on their asses (elephants?) whining that Obama won the election. Whatever plan the Democrats frame to get us out of this- will probably be weaker and less effective without good conservative input- but that's not happening.

Why are we worrying about what snapping pussy bitch says anyhow? She was never a viable candidate and seems to be a distraction from the people who are running and could make a difference. I also agree with xxsrve- its way too late for her to say anything intelligent. Hell, she's a lot more photogenic than Al Gore, but look who got more people to watch his movie...


Sam



< Message edited by samboct -- 11/20/2011 6:37:35 AM >

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RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/20/2011 10:25:11 AM   
BanthaSamantha


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct


There are 60 reactors under construction globally each with a capacity of 1-1.5GW so call it 100 GW in round numbers- and it's going to take between 8-10 years to come online.
Sam




That puts power output in the 1.21 Jiggawatts range, an output normally reserved for bolts of lightning.

1.21 Jiggawatts!

(in reply to samboct)
Profile   Post #: 113
RE: Can You Guess Without Googling? - 11/21/2011 2:40:42 PM   
samboct


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Where's my Delorean.....Can I go back and make sure that Squeaky Fromme has a bigger gun? The world would be a much better place.

As an FYI-The power required is pronounced in the film as "one point twenty-one jiggawatts."[1] While the closed-captioning in home video versions spells the word as it appears in the script, jigowatt,[4] the actual spelling matches the standard prefix and the term for power of "one billion watts" : gigawatt. Though obscure, the "j" sound at the beginning of the SI prefix giga- is the correct pronunciation for "gigawatt."[5][6] In the DVD commentary for Back to the Future, Robert Zemeckis stated that he had thought it was pronounced this way because this was how the scientific advisor that he had for the film pronounced it.[7]

Except at every meeting I've been to, we pronounce it gi gah watts.

Sam

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