crumpets
Posts: 1614
Joined: 11/5/2014 From: South Bay (SF & Silicon Valley) Status: offline
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FR On a note related to vaccines, in general (not shingles, in particular), I'm feeling very much under the weather this VD day, and since I never get a flu shot, I was looking up what the predominant flu virus is that's going around lately... Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report 2015-2016 Influenza Season Week 5 ending February 6, 2016 Based on that report, I'm statistically most likely to be suffering from influenza A, with the influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 viruses predominating. Comparing that most-likely virion with the current vaccine, I see that last year's vaccine handled that Swine Flu variant: What You Should Know for the 2014-2015 Influenza Season an A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus an A/Texas/50/2012 (H3N2)-like virus a B/Massachusetts/2/2012-like virus. So, had I gotten that vaccine last year, I'd be 56% less likely to seek medical help than I am now. Think This Year's Flu Was Bad? Next Year May Be Worse quote:
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said the vaccine was 62 percent effective against the flu. Which means that if you got the vaccine, you’d be 62 percent less likely to get a flu that forces you to go to the doctor. The CDC later revised the effectiveness rate to 56 percent. Looking for the current report, I find it here: What You Should Know for the 2015-2016 Influenza Season Which shows that "I" would again, have had a roughly 56% chance of not needing to go to the doctor (which I'm not at that point yet anyway), had I gotten a flu shot last October, because this year's vaccine protects against: an A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus an A/Switzerland/9715293/2013 (H3N2)-like virus a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus. (This is a B/Yamagata lineage virus) It's all a numbers game, so, this is only a quick off-the-cuff analysis based purely on gross statistics, which would indicate that for two years running, the Swine Flu predominates, which, is most likely then, what I have - and - which a vaccine would have given me roughly a 60:40 chance of not needing to go to the doctor (which I'm not needing at this point in time anyway). Given those numbers, it was smart of me NOT to get the vaccine, two years in a row, as long as the virus doesn't kill me (then it would have been stupid). I'll take my chances with those numbers though ... Bonus question: Why do you think the flu affects people mostly during the winter months?
< Message edited by crumpets -- 2/14/2016 5:44:09 PM >
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