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RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/6/2012 6:06:58 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie
Oh, a puzzle
But this figure is often adjusted.
So are the others, and usually more than once

The initial reports are estimates based on polling. They get revised in the following two months (if there are changes) as more information comes in. That's the m.o. for the bls data. So, August can still be revised again, but July and previous can not.

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What I support:

A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
Personal Responsibility
Help for the truly needy
Limited Government
Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 1:10:03 PM

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fr

Whole story with charts from Gallup.

This blog mentioned in mid-September that it was possible -- if unlikely, based on Gallup's survey data that include 30,000 interviews per month -- that September's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could fall to 7.9%. Still, Friday's BLS report of a drop to 7.8% in the Household survey seemed to surprise everyone, as has been the case on many occasions this year.

The problem is that even though the Household survey tends to be very volatile, this decline seems to lack face-validity, particularly after the prior month's numbers. The consensus estimate was that the government would report that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1% in September. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter and seems to be no better this quarter. The government's Establishment survey shows there were 114,000 new jobs created in September -- very close to the consensus of 113,000 -- and not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate.

A quick comparison of the government's seasonally adjusted and unadjusted employment data seems hard to reconcile with the weak economy. For example, the government shows the number of employed workers increasing by 775,000 in September from August on an unadjusted basis. This surge in hiring seems surprisingly large given the current economy, not to mention the even larger adjusted increase of 873,000. Similarly, the number of unemployed declined by 954,000 in September on an unadjusted basis. This is reduced to a smaller adjusted decline of 456,000 -- but both numbers are also surprisingly large.

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to DesideriScuri)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 1:38:14 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie
fr
Whole story with charts from Gallup.
This blog mentioned in mid-September that it was possible -- if unlikely, based on Gallup's survey data that include 30,000 interviews per month -- that September's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could fall to 7.9%. Still, Friday's BLS report of a drop to 7.8% in the Household survey seemed to surprise everyone, as has been the case on many occasions this year.
The problem is that even though the Household survey tends to be very volatile, this decline seems to lack face-validity, particularly after the prior month's numbers. The consensus estimate was that the government would report that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1% in September. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter and seems to be no better this quarter. The government's Establishment survey shows there were 114,000 new jobs created in September -- very close to the consensus of 113,000 -- and not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate.
A quick comparison of the government's seasonally adjusted and unadjusted employment data seems hard to reconcile with the weak economy. For example, the government shows the number of employed workers increasing by 775,000 in September from August on an unadjusted basis. This surge in hiring seems surprisingly large given the current economy, not to mention the even larger adjusted increase of 873,000. Similarly, the number of unemployed declined by 954,000 in September on an unadjusted basis. This is reduced to a smaller adjusted decline of 456,000 -- but both numbers are also surprisingly large.

I get what you are saying, but they also added 86,000 jobs to July/August totals. That would be a 200,000 gain. I think something reeks here, too, but I can't point anywhere and say "There it is!"

_____________________________

What I support:

A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
Personal Responsibility
Help for the truly needy
Limited Government
Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 2:49:19 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

Aww whats a matter yachtie....the whole thing falling apart on you?

You're being hoodwinked.

Who the fuck is jack welsh and why should I care?

And therein lies the problem.

(in reply to DomYngBlk)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 2:53:18 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: FMRFGOPGAL

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

US unemployment rate falls to 7.8 pct. in September, lowest since Jan. 2009; hiring increases

I call bullshit on this.

I call bullshit on your claim ..... SHOW PROOF... and please, reliable sources only, no blogs.

That's funny

(Something tells me less than a few caught that LOL)

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 3:08:49 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

US unemployment rate falls to 7.8 pct. in September, lowest since Jan. 2009; hiring increases

I call bullshit on this.

No one gives a shit what you "call" on this,seriously no one cares,the great majorityof us are happy to see the number go down.

Well then, why don't you pretend that GDP is up 4.7% and housing values are going through the roof?

Doesn't it seem even remotely curious to you that when the unemployment rate has fallen from 10.1% to 7.8% (fairly close to 25%), with mortgage rates below any historical number ever known, that the Federal Reserve announced just weeks ago that they were starting up QE3 for an "unlimited" amount of time...no backstop at all...for fear of another recession....but jobs and the economy are up?

Doesn't it seem unbelievably unusual to you that nearly a million (more) jobs got added over the last 90 days than were previously reported (regardless of the election)?

That doesn't seem at all unusual to you?

Where are these newly employed people? Why aren't retail sales going through the roof?

The people who bring you good data don't need my help but I need to express clearly...Yachtie and others have posed exceptional data....most take it as opinion or hyperbole (largely because they want to believe what they're fed instead of doing their own research), but in fact he (and others) don't have an opinion, nor are they sharing theirs.

They're simply displaying data and all you want to do is argue about it...just so you can "be right".

Stop freaking arguing, do your own homework.

It doesn't make a damn bit of difference who in this argument is "right".

What matters is the truth...and most of you couldn't see it if it hit you in the forehead.

There's a train wreck coming folks and you're watching it daily (and no I'm not referring to these posts), and instead of taking up facts....you're taking up positions.

Get in the game.

The ones that are paying attention to the data know what shit sounds like before it hits the fan.

The rest of you are going to be sitting there wondering "what the fuck is that smell?"

(in reply to slvemike4u)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 4:14:43 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
I get what you are saying, but they also added 86,000 jobs to July/August totals. That would be a 200,000 gain. I think something reeks here, too, but I can't point anywhere and say "There it is!"

Not yet anyway. Here's the thing, say the numbers are true. More people are exiting full time into part time. That will cause a massive reduction in cumulative taxable earnings and lowering of cumulative consumer spending. Add in the inflation being experienced and it's a downward spiral across the board all of which is hitting the middle class the hardest.

If this report is taken at face value it's worse than the mere added ~114K jobs as it also shows a massive move from full time to part within the employed sector. ~114K jobs may have been added but a good %age (would 50% be to much?) of the 800K+ went from full to part time.

And people cheer?

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to DesideriScuri)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 6:07:25 PM

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There is no massive move from full time to part... else some of those would have gone up. Everything moved downwards, indicating that those who were not working picked up part time jobs as opposed to full time.

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Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 6:11:06 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

There is no massive move from full time to part... else some of those would have gone up. Everything moved downwards, indicating that those who were not working picked up part time jobs as opposed to full time.

You are aware that in two separate statements you just said the exact same thing.

Stunning.

(in reply to tazzygirl)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 6:18:52 PM

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I know its not something you are used to doing yourself. Do try, you might you like it.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to LookieNoNookie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 6:20:28 PM

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Amazing.

(in reply to tazzygirl)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 6:33:25 PM

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Why thank you. The man thinks I am as well.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to LookieNoNookie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/7/2012 8:35:37 PM

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From: United States
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quote:

ORIGINAL: LookieNoNookie

quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

US unemployment rate falls to 7.8 pct. in September, lowest since Jan. 2009; hiring increases

I call bullshit on this.

No one gives a shit what you "call" on this,seriously no one cares,the great majorityof us are happy to see the number go down.

Well then, why don't you pretend that GDP is up 4.7% and housing values are going through the roof?

Doesn't it seem even remotely curious to you that when the unemployment rate has fallen from 10.1% to 7.8% (fairly close to 25%), with mortgage rates below any historical number ever known, that the Federal Reserve announced just weeks ago that they were starting up QE3 for an "unlimited" amount of time...no backstop at all...for fear of another recession....but jobs and the economy are up?

Doesn't it seem unbelievably unusual to you that nearly a million (more) jobs got added over the last 90 days than were previously reported (regardless of the election)?

That doesn't seem at all unusual to you?

Where are these newly employed people? Why aren't retail sales going through the roof?

The people who bring you good data don't need my help but I need to express clearly...Yachtie and others have posed exceptional data....most take it as opinion or hyperbole (largely because they want to believe what they're fed instead of doing their own research), but in fact he (and others) don't have an opinion, nor are they sharing theirs.

They're simply displaying data and all you want to do is argue about it...just so you can "be right".

Stop freaking arguing, do your own homework.

It doesn't make a damn bit of difference who in this argument is "right".

What matters is the truth...and most of you couldn't see it if it hit you in the forehead.

There's a train wreck coming folks and you're watching it daily (and no I'm not referring to these posts), and instead of taking up facts....you're taking up positions.

Get in the game.

The ones that are paying attention to the data know what shit sounds like before it hits the fan.

The rest of you are going to be sitting there wondering "what the fuck is that smell?"

No need to "pretend" there are actual numbers for such things(you can look them up,they are right there for all to see,and for some to scoff at....lol),for instance right now the unemployment number is 7.8%

< Message edited by slvemike4u -- 10/7/2012 8:37:20 PM >

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(in reply to LookieNoNookie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/8/2012 1:37:53 AM

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Now even Jack Welch is walking back his statements about the jobs report, seems even the nuts are realizing they are good numbers....

In fact, it would be effectively impossible for anyone with political motives to manipulate the jobs report, since government analysts use long-established statistical methods to arrive at the jobs numbers each month.

But I'm sure next time the unemployment numbers go up, you will of course believe that the GOP had something to do with it so as to help willard get elected

If you are this upset at the jobs numbers because you "think" someone changed them (falsified them) I can't imagine how upset you must be that everyone even Gingrich, and willards staff is saying willard lied about not raising tax on the middle class and lowering them for the top 1% in the debate I mean you are sooooo concerned with the DEMS being honest....how about the GOP

< Message edited by subspaceseven -- 10/8/2012 1:42:50 AM >

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/8/2012 4:50:35 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: subspaceseven

I mean you are sooooo concerned with the DEMS being honest....how about the GOP

GOP is as dishonest as the DEMs are.

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to subspaceseven)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/8/2012 5:03:38 AM

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~FR

(To be fair, not all GOP members felt something underhanded was going on. As former Bush White House aide Tony Fratto put it, “BLS is not manipulating data. Evidence of such would be a scandal of enormous proportions & loss of credibility.”)

That is pretty much the sentiment among economists.

“I would be very skeptical of any claims the job statistics are manipulated,” Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, in Washington, D.C., told ABC News. ”If they were, the administration’s record so far in 2012 would undoubtedly look a lot brighter.” Indeed, as Ezra Klein points out in the Washington Post, the drop is a mere three-tenths of one percent, from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent–not exactly a reason to crack open the Veuve Clicquot.

What’s more, Burless said it’s uncharacteristic of the Obama administration to lie about something like this. “Richard Nixon was notorious for distrusting the BLS, and he probably managed to frighten some long-time BLS employees,” said Burtless. “But I have not heard any persuasive reports of statistical manipulation in the BLS, even during the Nixon administration. So it would be astounding if President Obama has been more successful along those lines than Nixon managed to be.”

Guy La Bas, a managing director, fixed income strategy, at Janney Montgomery Scott, a Philadelphia brokerage firm, agreed. “I don’t want to simply blast Welch since he’s a very respected manager,” he told ABC News in an email. ”In this instance, he issued an off-the-cuff remark which I highly doubt is true, but that doesn’t negate the value of his business opinions.”

But, he added, “The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which conducts the monthly jobs survey is a non-partisan group of hard-working people that have the public trust. Considering this trust and the controls imposed on their processes, the chances that the BLS actively “manipulated” data are extremely low, even if some of the numbers underlying today’s jobs report appear surprising. In my discussions with statistical organizations, political officials receive information about economic releases only after the numbers have been calculated, so there’s no opportunity for the White House–or anyone else–to alter the results.”

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/10/does-the-white-house-manipulate-jobs-numbers/

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Yachtie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/8/2012 8:21:29 AM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: LookieNoNookie

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

Aww whats a matter yachtie....the whole thing falling apart on you?

You're being hoodwinked.

Who the fuck is jack welsh and why should I care?

And therein lies the problem.

Saw him being interviewed. He sounded as if he had mental issues. Alzheimers?

(in reply to LookieNoNookie)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/8/2012 8:59:07 AM

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he is the corrupt ex CEO of GE, he has also walked back this statement, I guess if you are proud of people who steal from shareholders and manipulate company records then you would follow him and believe what ever he says, to the rest of us, he is just another white collar crook, who stuck the shareholders with the fines

It's an ironic accusation coming from Welch, who knows a thing or two about employment. After all, he achieved success at GE by slashing more than 100,000 jobs at the company in the 1980s to boost profits.

Then the irony gets even thicker when one considers that Welch is now widely remembered as Corporate America's most skillful manipulator of quarterly earnings results and manager of expectations on Wall Street -- a skill that is particularly handy for CEOs overly focused on their stock price.

< Message edited by subspaceseven -- 10/8/2012 9:02:04 AM >

(in reply to DomYngBlk)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/8/2012 2:35:57 PM

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Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: subspaceseven

Now even Jack Welch is walking back his statements about the jobs report, seems even the nuts are realizing they are good numbers....

In fact, it would be effectively impossible for anyone with political motives to manipulate the jobs report, since government analysts use long-established statistical methods to arrive at the jobs numbers each month.

But I'm sure next time the unemployment numbers go up, you will of course believe that the GOP had something to do with it so as to help willard get elected

If you are this upset at the jobs numbers because you "think" someone changed them (falsified them) I can't imagine how upset you must be that everyone even Gingrich, and willards staff is saying willard lied about not raising tax on the middle class and lowering them for the top 1% in the debate I mean you are sooooo concerned with the DEMS being honest....how about the GOP

Of course they're good numbers. They're prepared by the BLS, an independent agency...again, I'll repeat....regardless of the election...don't you think it's a smidge unusual that essentially 1,000,000 new jobs have been created over the last 90 days?

Don't you even question that?

(in reply to subspaceseven)

RE: 7.8% and I have a bridge to sell too - 10/8/2012 2:37:32 PM

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

quote:

ORIGINAL: LookieNoNookie

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomYngBlk

Aww whats a matter yachtie....the whole thing falling apart on you?

You're being hoodwinked.

Who the fuck is jack welsh and why should I care?

And therein lies the problem.

Saw him being interviewed. He sounded as if he had mental issues. Alzheimers?

Yeah...he's in his mid to late 80's now.

If I can do the math, Einstein would be 157 or so today.

Your point?

(in reply to DomYngBlk)

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