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TheHeretic -> Iran (11/9/2013 9:55:34 AM)

What are your thoughts on the negotiations with Iran?

I think they are playing the West, and we are all going to wake up one morning in the next year to the news that they have successfully tested a bomb.



DesideriScuri -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 10:04:39 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic
What are your thoughts on the negotiations with Iran?
I think they are playing the West, and we are all going to wake up one morning in the next year to the news that they have successfully tested a bomb.


I do believe we need to negotiate with Iran. I also believe we need it to be open to the UN and the eyes of the world. That way, when we hold up our end of the bargain and Iran breaks the agreement (if they do as you think they will), then we'll have a lot more backing to call for consequences.

Israel might not like it, but, we aren't negotiating just for Israel.



TheHeretic -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 10:23:24 AM)

Talking and negotiating is fine, DS, as long as we have some degree of confidence that it is happening in good faith. Hell, we can sit and talk without any good faith whatsoever, to build relationships if some good faith ever materializes. Here, I don't see any reason to think this is anything but an Iranian charade.



Hillwilliam -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 11:28:01 AM)

Personally, I think they're negotiating for 2 reasons.

1. To buy time for their research efforts to come to fruition.

2. To attempt to drive a small wedge between us and Israel.



Owner59 -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 11:28:37 AM)

Thanks for regurgitating the right`s talking points.....


We understand there`s not much choice in the matter....



vincentML -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 12:57:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Personally, I think they're negotiating for 2 reasons.

1. To buy time for their research efforts to come to fruition.

2. To attempt to drive a small wedge between us and Israel.

You don't suppose sanctions have had a devastating effect on their economy and the mullahs are in fear of internal discontent?



DarkSteven -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 2:06:00 PM)

The fact that they're even willing to talk with us is a good sign.

I like the idea of talking while keeping sanctions to prevent nuclear advancement.

A bunker bomb will work as well tomorrow as today, as a last resort.



Phydeaux -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 9:20:22 PM)

Whats to talk about..

The Iranian president gave a domestic speach last week saying, don't worry I'm not compromising the nuclear program.

Iran doesn't need nuclear stockpiles - it just needs scientists with the knowledge. Once you have the centrifuges and the procedures - the stockpiles are superfluous.
What will, I am afraid, happen, is that Iran will agree not to enrich to 20%, and lower its stockpile in return for easing of sanctions.

This will allow them to continue development work on missiles, fissile warheads, etc. It further allows them to continue casting a large shadow in the middle east. In exchange they will get some easing of the sanctions.

There is no bargain here for the US.

On the flip side.

I fully support a diplomatic solution- but it has to result in UN inspectors monitoring Iranian nuclear program.

Look - there are two key developments here that are a dead giveaway that this isn't for peaceable use.
The Iranians negotiated away the right to open the reactor at Atak.
And I'm having a senior moment - there was a dead tell, for the second, and I 've forgotten where I was going. Regardless, enrichment to 20% is only useful for a weapons. Commercial reactors run on much lower enrichments.

You don't claim the nuclear program is for civilian use - and then negotiate away the right to continue to develop nuclear reactors.



MrRodgers -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 9:51:47 PM)

Most here are correct...trust but verify. But we need to save some balls here and remind the Iranians that nukes are a real cut above so if there is ever any atmospheric use of any nuke...it is their ass and the end of Iran as they and the world knows it today.

Make it known to the world through the UN and constant badgering that the Iranians have become the world's biggest enemies of nukes...or else.

I know, nobody thinks that's possible...right?



tweakabelle -> RE: Iran (11/9/2013 9:58:03 PM)

It appears that some have already forgotten that the new Iranian President ran on a platform of a more conciliatory policy towards the West. The Iranian people gave him a mandate to negotiate with the West to bring this to fruition.

It is also clear that the international sanctions are seriously damaging the Iranian economy. So there are push reasons and pull reasons for the Iranians to negotiate seriously.

Neither side appears to desire full scale confrontation. Indeed the only party urging a full scale confrontation is guess who - the Israelis. Netanyahoo seems seriously miffed that he is going to miss out on another chance at plunging the region into another disastrous war. Is anyone surprised?



Hillwilliam -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 6:26:27 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Personally, I think they're negotiating for 2 reasons.

1. To buy time for their research efforts to come to fruition.

2. To attempt to drive a small wedge between us and Israel.

You don't suppose sanctions have had a devastating effect on their economy and the mullahs are in fear of internal discontent?

The sanctions have only made the Mullahs more powerful by showing how evil the west is to make the people suffer and then they have martyrs lined up.

Happy, well fed people don't make good martyrs.



DomKen -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 7:41:21 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Personally, I think they're negotiating for 2 reasons.

1. To buy time for their research efforts to come to fruition.

2. To attempt to drive a small wedge between us and Israel.

You don't suppose sanctions have had a devastating effect on their economy and the mullahs are in fear of internal discontent?

The sanctions have only made the Mullahs more powerful by showing how evil the west is to make the people suffer and then they have martyrs lined up.

Happy, well fed people don't make good martyrs.

Nobody is going hungry due to the sanctions. The sanctions are hurting the wealthy and the government. The mullahs have been losing their grip for a while. They almost lost the nation entirely in 2009 but they brutally put down the demonstrations. How long it takes for the mullahs to completely lose control is of course unknown but I'd bet on sooner rather than later. Letting the moderate and western looking Rouhani take office was a promising sign.

The UN WFP is involved in Iran only in feeding the refugees from neighboring conflicts.



graceadieu -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 7:45:49 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

It appears that some have already forgotten that the new Iranian President ran on a platform of a more conciliatory policy towards the West. The Iranian people gave him a mandate to negotiate with the West to bring this to fruition.


Forgotten? I'm guessing a lot of people who, say, rely on Fox News never heard that to begin with.

I think Iran just wants to pursue a nuke because it's a status symbol..... hopefully we can give them something that would make up for the value of losing - or not getting, or whatever - that status.



vincentML -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 7:50:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Personally, I think they're negotiating for 2 reasons.

1. To buy time for their research efforts to come to fruition.

2. To attempt to drive a small wedge between us and Israel.

You don't suppose sanctions have had a devastating effect on their economy and the mullahs are in fear of internal discontent?

The sanctions have only made the Mullahs more powerful by showing how evil the west is to make the people suffer and then they have martyrs lined up.
Happy, well fed people don't make good martyrs.

As I recall the same was said about Saddam and the Iraqi people, who dissolved into sectarian conflict rather than line up to be martyrs. Let's be clear. Neither you nor I have the intel to predict what is going on internally. Neither of us know the Iranian people or their political/economic condition. I sense that your statement is born out of the stereotypical view we always have of the irrationality of our enemies. In other words, the same old bullshit propaganda the press and government feeds us when we are allegedly confronted by an adversary. Axis of Evil, anyone?

It is telling that no one here has questioned the morality or legality of the sanctions we impose. Nor the strategic necessity to our national interest.

Natural uranium is made weapons-grade through isotopic enrichment. Initially only about 0.7% of it is fissile U-235, with the rest being almost entirely uranium-238 (U-238). They are separated by their differing masses. Highly enriched uranium is considered weapons-grade when it has been enriched to about 90% U-235[citation needed].

So, what is really going on here? How much of a danger does the Iranian program really present? Reactors that produce energy need only about 3.5% enrichment but a reactor that produces medical isotopes requires 20% enrichment. Iran claims its right to enrichment under Article iv of the NPT and the United States is willing to go along with it. The French have objections. Israel is not a signatory to the NPT.

Here is a link that provides more detailed information to the issue http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/11/10/world-powers-set-for-new-round-iran-nuke-talks/

It is just not so damned simplistic as reflected in some of the remarks in this thread.




RottenJohnny -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 7:59:55 AM)

FR

If Iran has indeed been pursuing a nuclear weapon, you'd have to be an idiot to think they'll give up finishing it at this point regardless of what they say at the negotiating table. I have no doubt the leadership will happily let their economy suffer for as long as needed if in the end they have a working bomb. In my mind, the question we should be asking ourselves is how are we going to contain the inevitable bullshit and bluster that's coming as soon as it's finished. I think someone has already brushed the subject but I don't see any way to deal with them at that point other than making sure they understand we'll turn them to ash if they let their bomb go to their heads...provided Israel doesn't go completely rogue over it and attack.



Phydeaux -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 8:14:36 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

It appears that some have already forgotten that the new Iranian President ran on a platform of a more conciliatory policy towards the West. The Iranian people gave him a mandate to negotiate with the West to bring this to fruition.

It is also clear that the international sanctions are seriously damaging the Iranian economy. So there are push reasons and pull reasons for the Iranians to negotiate seriously.

Neither side appears to desire full scale confrontation. Indeed the only party urging a full scale confrontation is guess who - the Israelis. Netanyahoo seems seriously miffed that he is going to miss out on another chance at plunging the region into another disastrous war. Is anyone surprised?


Disastrous for whom?



TheHeretic -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 8:30:21 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RottenJohnny

provided Israel doesn't go completely rogue over it and attack.



Israel isn't the only neighbor that might take a "oh HELL no" approach to a nuclear armed Iran. The Saudi's might want a piece of that action too.



RottenJohnny -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 8:46:12 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic
Israel isn't the only neighbor that might take a "oh HELL no" approach to a nuclear armed Iran. The Saudi's might want a piece of that action too.

They say war makes strange bedfellows but somehow I just don't see the Israelis and Saudis teaming up to eliminate an Iranian bomb program...although, I'd personally welcome the teamwork.



truckinslave -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 8:47:54 AM)

quote:

I think they are playing the West, and we are all going to wake up one morning in the next year to the news that they have successfully tested a bomb.


I think we are all going to wake up one morning in the next year to the news that they have successfully tested a bomb in Israel.



booklover13 -> RE: Iran (11/10/2013 8:50:49 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: truckinslave

quote:

I think they are playing the West, and we are all going to wake up one morning in the next year to the news that they have successfully tested a bomb.


I think we are all going to wake up one morning in the next year to the news that they have successfully tested a bomb in Israel.


And the following morning we will all wake up to nuclear war which, most likely, will destroy the planet as we know it.



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