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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/9/2012 3:37:45 PM   
SoftBonds


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras

quote:

ORIGINAL: SoftBonds
Why do I worry that a hard line stance on Iran will lead to Iraq redux?
1. Neocons still talking about it.
2. How do you take a "hard line," stance without something to do if they cross your "hard line?"
3. More nebulous, but... My perception is that there are folks in the US who get political points by being anti-Iran, and making tough statements. These statements are grabbed by the Iranian Conservatives and used as proof that the US is a danger to Iran, which leads them to make tough anti-US statements. These are grabbed by the US Conservatives and used as proof that Iran is a threat, and so they make tougher anti-Iran statements. It kinda leads in a circle in my opinion. If both sides walk a tightrope, it just makes folks scared, which helps conservatives in both nations, but it is pretty easy to fall off the tightrope and go to military conflict. I'm not saying the US would be the instigator either. If Iran were to launch missiles at one of our ships I think we would smash them for it, and rightfully so. I'm just afraid of the aftermath...

1. Some neo-cons might be talking about a land invasion (haven't heard much about that) but we are talking about what is probable. Such a thing might have happened with Bush perhaps up until 2005 but the landscape has changed immensely. If (and its a big "if") Romney got in, it would be astonishing if there was ever a land invasion of Iran - post-Iraq. It didn't happen when it was opportune. It certainly won't happen now. The US will probably hand Israel some advanced bunker busting bombs, and at most may lob a few missiles at the country if things get a lot worse, a la Clinton's strategy in the 90's. There simply isn't the appetite or money for a protracted conflict. Even the "neo-cons" know that.
2. The argument doesn't follow because you are applying a different definition to the same words in another context. I just mean a tougher stance with regard to Iran than Obama has done thus far - the point being that people opposed to conflict make out it will lead to Iraq Redux. They are saying it in the UK too. Its a complete strawman as far as I can see.
3. Iran has been making intensely hostile remarks about the US since 1979. It is commonly referred to as the "Big Satan". Obama's softer stance encouraging dialogue hasn't made any difference. Late last year the Iranian authorities developed a video game to promote war with the US. Seems they are set on ratcheting up tension regardless.


Well of course Iran has been making hostile remarks about the US (except under Khatami), it is how the Right wingers in their nation keep political control. Also, of course the folks who use the "threat," of the US to keep power haven't reacted favorably to our overtures-we have made life difficult for them by making the overtures.
One possibility is the push by Iran to have nuclear power, and perhaps weapons, was intended to drive the US back to a hostile stance, to protect the political power of those in charge.
Now, in a perfect world, we could just ignore them completely, at which point the folks in charge would implode, and a US friendly state would emerge. Here in the real world, I have a lot of fear that the "guardians of the revolution," will do whatever they have to in order to get a US response that will maintain their power...

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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/9/2012 4:29:21 PM   
Lucylastic


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Reports of the demise of the Afghanistan War’s signature tactic are premature. U.S. Special Operations Forces will still conduct “night raids” on Afghan homes — sometimes without the prior approval of the Afghan government.

Over the weekend, the U.S. and Afghanistan signed an agreement placing restrictions on those raids, a longtime stated goal of President Hamid Karzai. The terms of the agreement seemed to put elite U.S. commandos in something of a holding pattern before the raids could go forward. In theory, the raids require an Afghan judicial panel to issue a warrant before a raid. No warrant, no raid.

Not exactly, say U.S. military officials.

First, the restrictions only apply to missions where there’s a reasonable chance of taking Afghans prisoner or “search[ing] a residential house or compound,” Navy Cmdr. John Kirby, a Kabul-based military spokesman, told reporters on Monday. No other special-operations mission, or mission using conventional forces, requires an Afghan warrant. So if special operations forces are targeting an insurgent as he travels, or planning to ambush a Taliban camp not suspected of being located inside a civilian’s home, no warrants are required.

But even raids on Afghan homes don’t always require an Afghan warrant ahead of time.

“Under the Afghan constitution, specifically in Article 38, it does allow for what they call warrantless search and detention of individuals that are deemed an immediate threat,” Kirby said. “Theoretically, these operations can still go forward without a warrant in advance. But it does have to be pursued as soon as practical afterward.”


In other words, the U.S. believes night raids can go forward before Afghan judges approve them. Those situations are supposed to be the exception, not the rule, Kirby said.

But Kirby declined to say if Special Operations Forces can still conduct a night raid if Afghan judges deny the warrant request. Nor did he say what the standard is for obtaining a warrant.

It’s clear, however, that night raids will continue in Afghanistan. Since December, there have been “more than 350″ night raids, Kirby said, all of them joint operations with Afghan commandos. The teams found their man in 75 percent of the missions, and only fired a shot during 31 night raids. (That works out to, conservatively, nearly three night raids every night since December, an index of how important the U.S. considers those operations.)

Kirby’s suggesting that there’s no daylight between how U.S. and Afghan forces perceive the importance of the night raids. It’s worth pointing out that the Afghans know who’s paying for their military, so perhaps they’ll approve those warrants. But it’s also worth pointing out that Karzai has long demanded an end to them — at least in public.

Still, even if Afghan judges start restricting the night raids, it’s clear the U.S. thinks there are work-arounds when necessary.


http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/04/night-raids-still/

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Profile   Post #: 122
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/9/2012 5:23:07 PM   
Anaxagoras


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead
quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras
I accept there was manipulation in the past, and I share some of your concerns about big oil's influence but in all fairness comparing Iran in 1953 with Iraq circa 2003 is a bit out of context. Oil was definitely a motivating factor (albeit more for the Limey's) but it should also be remembered that the USSR was a very aggressive state that had absolutely no compunction about going into a country and mangling it.

Really? And there was me thinking that it was the 'States that removed the democratically elected Mohammed Mossadeq from power in Iran and reinstated the psychopathic autocratShah, rather than the Russians.

Yes, really, except for the rest of what you said. My point was simply that the US faced a big expansionist foe back in the day (remember those maps of communist Eastern Europe?) that was vying for influence in the region at a time when energy security was a huge issue, while the US didn't in 2003. I'm not even sure it was strictly a coup since under the rules of the regime the Shah was supposedly entitled to issue a decree removing Mossadeq under certain conditions - some say it was applicable, others not but Mossadeq was put on trial for refusing to go. The Shah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vq5CbOuSSLI was very repressive but was he that much worse than most in the region? I don't know but at least he was a good deal less "psychopathic" than some, e.g. his neighbour Assad Senior killed upwards of 50,000 back in the good old days...

< Message edited by Anaxagoras -- 4/9/2012 5:59:45 PM >


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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/9/2012 6:03:54 PM   
TheHeretic


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Well that is some positive news, Lucy. I haven't had a chance to chase any new information on it today.

Thanks

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Profile   Post #: 124
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/9/2012 6:14:46 PM   
Lucylastic


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My pleasure Rich

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Profile   Post #: 125
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/10/2012 5:24:12 AM   
Moonhead


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras
The Shah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vq5CbOuSSLI was very repressive but was he that much worse than most in the region

He was certainly much worse than Mossadeq, which was my point.
(And claiming if the yanks hadn't knocked over a democratically elected government it might have started selling oil to the Russians instead of them is no fucking excuse for deposing him at all.)

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Profile   Post #: 126
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/10/2012 5:43:07 AM   
Owner59


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

Well that is some positive news, Lucy. I haven't had a chance to chase any new information on it today.

Thanks



Never mind.....

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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/10/2012 8:39:09 AM   
Anaxagoras


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead
quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras
The Shah http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vq5CbOuSSLI was very repressive but was he that much worse than most in the region

He was certainly much worse than Mossadeq, which was my point.
(And claiming if the yanks hadn't knocked over a democratically elected government it might have started selling oil to the Russians instead of them is no fucking excuse for deposing him at all.)

That is a strawman of what was being stated. It was far from merely being about selling oil.

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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/10/2012 4:14:43 PM   
Politesub53


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras

That is a strawman of what was being stated. It was far from merely being about selling oil.



UK and US involvement was soley about oil.

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Profile   Post #: 129
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/10/2012 5:05:50 PM   
SoftBonds


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras

That is a strawman of what was being stated. It was far from merely being about selling oil.



UK and US involvement was soley about oil.


I think Anaxagoras' point was that while it was all about the oil, it wasn't necessarily all about the money. Remember how important the Saudi oil fields were in WW2? I think what he is trying to say is we were trying to secure the oil for our tanks and to keep it out of Russian tanks...

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Profile   Post #: 130
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/10/2012 7:45:44 PM   
LookieNoNookie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: xssve

We shouldn't have gone the fuck in, but there we are.


Well....yeah.

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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 6:08:34 AM   
mnottertail


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SoftBonds


quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras

That is a strawman of what was being stated. It was far from merely being about selling oil.



UK and US involvement was soley about oil.


I think Anaxagoras' point was that while it was all about the oil, it wasn't necessarily all about the money. Remember how important the Saudi oil fields were in WW2? I think what he is trying to say is we were trying to secure the oil for our tanks and to keep it out of Russian tanks...


Well, I think the guv is trying to say that WW2 was over by the mid fifties, and we were both (the russkies and us) playing cat and mouse with the middle east, and since Britain had North Africa from the WW2 days and that lot of wogs, we were trying to keep Standard Oil et al in fine fettle in the Middle East for ourselves. 

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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 6:11:43 AM   
Moonhead


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I was actually think more of that "the USSR was a very aggressive state that had absolutely no compunction about going into a country and mangling it" stuff. It's a bit of a cheek claiming that as an excuse for the CIA going into a country and formenting a coup, thus mangling it

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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 6:20:59 AM   
mnottertail


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But ----  Gott Mit Uns, and all that rot, we have only altruistic ends, you we are unsure about, and our ideological enemies have only death and destruction in mind, being that they are so godless and whatnot.

so,

US
you
them

in that order of angelic goodness, you see.

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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 7:51:46 AM   
tweakabelle


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anaxagoras

That is a strawman of what was being stated. It was far from merely being about selling oil.



UK and US involvement was soley about oil.


So reassuring to note that some things never change isn't it?

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 4/11/2012 7:52:21 AM >


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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 8:16:50 AM   
Anaxagoras


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
But ----  Gott Mit Uns, and all that rot, we have only altruistic ends, you we are unsure about, and our ideological enemies have only death and destruction in mind, being that they are so godless and whatnot.

so,

US
you
them

in that order of angelic goodness, you see.

It isn't necessary to pretend one side is angelic to appreciate that the other has pretty ugly intentions. US foreign policy wasn't pretty but I would suggest the USSR's was a good deal worse.

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Profile   Post #: 136
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 8:27:18 AM   
Anaxagoras


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead
I was actually think more of that "the USSR was a very aggressive state that had absolutely no compunction about going into a country and mangling it" stuff. It's a bit of a cheek claiming that as an excuse for the CIA going into a country and formenting a coup, thus mangling it

If you wish to make a point about my argument, have the decency to direct it at myself. You have ignored the rest of my point but if you want to talk about mangling lets compare the CIA's influence in Iran with neighbouring Afghanistan under the USSR, and how many countries were really under the US' thumb compared to say the USSR in Eastern Europe? Your classic British-Guardian stance of blaming the US for every-fucking-issue-under-the-sun is tiresome, especially when the UK were the ones agitating to get rid of Mosaddegh.

I don't know whether it was all a smoke screen to get back oil in British hands, as many today contend but again I just pointed out that the USSR had already installed a puppet regime in Azerbaijan which (if your Geography isn't up to snuff) neighbours Iran. The USSR had been in Northern Iranian territory, and only pulled out after intense international pressure a few years previously. There had been assassination attempts against the Shah up to the point of the coup, whilst the Tudeh Communist party was steadily gaining control of the country. The Shah was entitled to dismiss the PM under certain conditions, although its debated whether it was applicable in this case, but Mosaddegh refused to go, claiming the initial order was not authentic. Thus it can be argued that what happened next was actually a counter-coup rather than a coup.

< Message edited by Anaxagoras -- 4/11/2012 8:47:35 AM >


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RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 8:50:31 AM   
Moonhead


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The mangling in Afghanistan was not particularly unilateral: you'll find that the Muhajadin were not being funded by the evil imperialist Soviets.

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Profile   Post #: 138
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 8:53:13 AM   
Anaxagoras


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead
The mangling in Afghanistan was not particularly unilateral: you'll find that the Muhajadin were not being funded by the evil imperialist Soviets.

not particularly unilateral!!! The socialist government was a puppet to the USSR, and when the people went into open revolt, the USSR went in and fucked the place over for eight years killing in excess of one million people, and displacing a third of the nation...

< Message edited by Anaxagoras -- 4/11/2012 8:54:30 AM >


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Profile   Post #: 139
RE: Oh what the fucking fuck??? - 4/11/2012 9:20:45 AM   
MrBukani


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If you wanna have afghans workin for us.
Give them a future.
Afghanistan is a pearl to Islam.
Not a curse.

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Profile   Post #: 140
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