Interesdom
Posts: 197
Joined: 5/24/2004
From: England
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* Is the trend towards resurgent nationalism and anti-immigrant feelings across Europe irreversible? Is the complete fragmentation of the EU into its member States a real possibility now?
Short term outlook: in my opinion no to both. The result of the referendum will boost nationalists all over for sure for a while. The anti-immigrant debate in the UK (contrary to the belief of some) was largely not an anti-muslim debate but an anti-polish/latvian etc blaming legal european immigrant workers coming into the UK (and encouraged to do so about a decade ago ...) for low wages, waiting at NHS and whatever else. What happens to those within the next few years ... we 'll see, as well as what arrangement will be found for the British expats in the EU. It is possible that nothing will change for those both positively as well as negatively depending on what status Britain will achieve (Norway as well as Switzerland could serve as possible examples).
In many respects, european union (small letters) is already very fragmented, an aspect that is not appreciated by many people outside the European Continent. Even during the Brexit campaign for example, there was talk of regaining our legal supremacy and yet the European Court of Human Rights is a seperate organisation and under seperate treaty to the EU. The UK has dozens of treaties of various knds with other European countries which will not (necessarily) be affected by pulling out of the EU; these treaties rarely have all the same members as any other treaties, though some are mandatory for members of the EU. Given the slim 'exit' vote, the government has no reason to pull out of anything other than just the EU, leaving all other treaties in place.
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A complete fragmentation: What happens in Britain over the next few years will be watched closely all over Europe. Leaving the EU is unprecedented. Who wins what, who loses what, is still to be seen. In my opinion there is far more loss than gain in all this.
I fear a fragmentation of the UK is far more likely within the near future.
Exit is not completely unprecedented: Greenland exited the EC (prior to Maastricht) and has done well enough since then.
The combination of existing trade and other treaties with European nations, separate from the EU, and the possibiliity of closer ties with The Commonwealth (ties which were not possible as a member of the EC/EU) should leave the UK capable enough. As with any change, there will be winners and loosers economically but the country as a whole is economically secure so long as we don't go into panic mode: which is probably why the PM felt he could not govern properly.
Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see if the EU takes this as a serious warning and starts to make the changes many countries have been calling for, before the next national referendum whether to be in or out. Having spent so much time criticising the poor democracy in the EU, perhaps people in the UK will now turn their attention to the very undemocratic United Nations!
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RE: Brexit Vote Results - 
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